Are You Better Than Brandon Knight?

by Sam Page on Dec 18, 2008 3:05 PM EST Comment 15 comments

Brandon Knight, a Rangers' draftee in 1995, progressed quickly through the minors before hitting a wall in AAA at age 23. After being traded to the Yankees, Knight seemingly got it together, dominating AAA at age 25. Without getting a fair shot, however, Knight existed in baseball purgatory signing with the Nippon Ham Fighters of Japan, the Somerset Patriots of the Atlantic League, and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

After signing a Minor League deal with the Mets at age 32, Knight dominated in AAA New Orleans as both a reliever and a starter, striking out 55 in 43 innings with a 2.28 ERA. His performance earned him a trip to the 2008 Olympics and spot-duty with the Mets. Not bad for a guy about to quit baseball.

In some ways he's the Val Pascucci of pitching. Does that mean he's good, or worth a shot in 2008? Let's see how he stacks up to popular free agent starters using Marcels projections. Knight projects for a 4.31 FIP with a 7.0 K/9 and a 3.7 BB/9. For our purposes we'll stretch these numbers over 180 innings, compare them to 180 innings of the big-name free agents.

Our first contestant, hailing from Valencia, CA, weighs in at 210 pounds. With a projected FIP 4.43 4.7 K/9, he falls short of Brandon by about 50 strikeouts and roughly 2 runs. It was close, but Jon Garland is not better than Brandon Knight.

The next guy, who most of you will only accept as a fifth starter, projects for a 4.29 FIP. Congratulations Randy Wolf, you are basically Brandon Knight. Same goes for Jonathan Niese and his projected 4.32 FIP.

The perceived best options of this free agent class, however, are a different story. I don't need to tell you this, but Derek Lowe is better than Brandon Knight. In fact he's close to 15 runs or 1.5 wins better. The guy many consider second-best to Lowe, however, rates about half a win worse than Knight. You're not Sandy Koufax, Ollie. Hell, you're not even Brandon Knight.

Does this mean I think Brandon Knight is necessarily a better 4^th starter option than Oliver Perez? No, these are just projections placed in a certain context for the sake of argument. Knight's first major league start came last year, with the Mets at age 32. Preferring the 26 year old, who's seemingly been around forever, over the 33 year-old reliever-made starter, is a very defensible position. But when you look at the money these marginal starters are demanding, the idea of focusing on Lowe and then turning in-house sounds much better.

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why is this gray?

Whatever the similarities, I’m not feeling the same level of confidence in Knight’s projections as I do in the established major leaguers’. He’s enough of an oddball/outlier in terms of career path that I think translated stats deserve to be treated a little bit cautiously, and nothing about his actual major-league performance inspired much confidence in his ability to make the transition. He might just be one of those AAA or “AAAA” players who can’t quite hack it in the show. Of course, I’m saying this because I paid more attention to his brief major-league suckitude than to his minor-league performance, so I may just be wrong; but Knight looks like a mop-up duty reliever or at best a long-man, not a passable major-league starter, to me.

by anonymous on Dec 18, 2008 4:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You're special

This was Sam’s first article on the main page and we had to do some tweaking to get the image insertion correct. You have special powers so you can see hidden posts. Others can’t.

by Eric Simon on Dec 18, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

whoa

Magic. Yeah, it stopped being gray right after I posted that.

by anonymous on Dec 18, 2008 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Major-league suckitude aside

If Brandon Knight is anything more than another arm competing for the fifth spot in the rotation in spring training, I’d think it would be pretty fair to say that Omar fell asleep on this team somewhere during the winter. His sample size is obviously absurdly small with regard to MLB starts, and I certainly agree that paying something like $8 million/year to a guy like Randy Wolf to suck is excessive, but pardon me if I don’t feel too much confidence in leaving the fifth spot to a guy like Knight until he pitches regularly and produces some results in the majors. Hell, even one full season of good results in AAA might make me feel better about Knight but that also appears to be lacking.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 18, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sweet icon samt

madvillan is the truth, just like knight.

by jaronson5 on Dec 18, 2008 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Better? No

But I am left-handed, and completely willing to play for the MLB minimum. Also, I’m not repped by Scott Boras.

All kidding aside, CPP is right: Knight shouldn’t be anything more than a long reliever/fifth starter candidate. 7 K/9? That’s not too bad. I doubt he’s going to suddenly lower his walk rate, but all we’re asking for is that the dude not completely suck. And that he do it for much less $$ than Randy Wolf.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Dec 18, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree with both of you

I have advocated since last season that Niese/Knight split the back end of the rotation duties. It’s a convenient solution for a young pitcher who needs to take of his arm and a guy who probably isn’t ready to take on full-time duty again. The point of this post (if there is one) is that spending anywhere from 4-9MM a year on a guy who is considered a fifth starter or an “innings eater” is a poor allocation of resources. We can get better production for league minimum.

by Sam Page on Dec 18, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dear samt,

Nice avatar! (and post)

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Dec 18, 2008 9:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i medalled in Dressage in '96, and you don't see me trying to be the Mets fifth starter

I would urge Knight to follow his heart and retire. Then I won’t be forced to heckle the guy mercilessly, thereby becoming a Knight Rider.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Dec 19, 2008 1:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Get me Derek Lowe

Mets, stop fooling around. You have almost everything. Get us another starter not named Randy Wof (LOWE LOWE LOWE) and let’s move on and content next year, OK???

The 2008 NY Mets: Pedro hurt already. Delgado still sucks. Mets still can't beat the Braves. Beltran only plays 6 innings. WTF with Pelfrey?? Mets win 60 in a row. Freakin' Wagner. PLAYOFFS, NO WAY?!

by ZaBlanc on Dec 19, 2008 9:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just say no to mediocre Pitchers

No to Wolf, Garland et al. No until we get a serious #2 in the rotation behind Santana. Someone to compete against Niese is fine for the #5 spot but we shouldn’t be looking at anyone names Wolf.

by scott from peekskill on Dec 20, 2008 8:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Projecting Knight

I actually project Knight as having more variance in his results than other pitchers on the team as well. While I have his “most likely” projection as being 4.58 (ERA+ of 94) in relief, I have him as nearly twice as likely (3) to have an ERA+ of 150 or greater in relief than everyone else within half a run of him but also a significantly greater chance of him having an ERA+ below 70 (8).

by D.Szymborski on Dec 20, 2008 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Woohoo, Mets ZiPS are out (thanks, Dan)

This variance supports the best argument for giving Knight a mop-up role and letting him earn spot starts. I think the Marcels projection I cite was also made under the assumption Knight was a reliever, hence my disclaimer at the post’s end.

ZiPS seems to like Pedro, would you sign him in the Mets position?

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Dec 20, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Knight/Pedro

That’s probably what I would do with Knight. Mop-up men have kind of gotten out of style, but Knight’s a reasonable choice for the role given the makeup of the team. As a full-time starter, I have Knight’s ERA going up to 5.18.

Hard to say anything about Pedro without knowing what he’s looking for. I’d definitely throw a few million his way, given how valuable extra wins are where the Mets are, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the money goes completely up in smoke. It’s hard to resist giving one of the best pitchers of all-time as many chances as possible, no matter how toasty they are.

by D.Szymborski on Dec 20, 2008 7:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brandon Knight Is A Great Pitcher

I was at the one and only game he started in at Shea this year, and everyone freaked out when he clearly got nervous in the first inning, but he dominated for the next 5 innings throwing 3-hit shutout ball. He is a very talented pitcher and deserves to get a chance.

by marcut on Dec 24, 2008 12:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs