Surveying The Starter Market
The CHONE projection system now features its own site, complete with individual player pages. It's a neat site and provides rough estimates of each player's value if you do a little defensive guess work. Of particular interest for the bored Mets fan, however, is the free agent section, which features projections for several Japanese pitchers. Much has been written about the Mets pursuit of Lowe and Perez, but perhaps just as importantly, Minaya has been linked to a few Japanese free agents, namely Koji Uehara, Kenshin Kawakami, and Ken Takahashi. Below I've compiled the CHONE projections for most notable free agent starters and calculated their FIP.
| Player | IP | K | BB | HR | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Garland | 189 | 98 | 53 | 20 | 4.38 |
| Kenshin Kawakami | 122 | 105 | 32 | 15 | 3.86 |
| Derek Lowe | 171 | 106 | 45 | 12 | 3.66 |
| Pedro Martinez | 76 | 58 | 29 | 11 | 4.70 |
| Oliver Perez | 166 | 147 | 84 | 24 | 4.83 |
| Ben Sheets | 148 | 109 | 36 | 15 | 3.77 |
| Koji Uehara | 50 | 47 | 11 | 5 | 3.28 |
| Randy Wolf | 122 | 94 | 50 | 14 | 4.38 |
The inning projections are a bit odd, but a quick glance at those FIPs has the NPB players stacking up well against their MLB counterparts. Uehara's projection assumes relief work, but Omar apparently views him as a starter. This approach seems best, since Uehara's best skill, control, suits a rotation job better. He had a long track record of success as a starter before injury forced him into a full-time bullpen role during 2007. Uehara seems to be working back towards starting and, for the Mets' purposes, a solid #3 starter is much more valuable than a soft-tossing reliever. CHONE's projection of him as a reliever can't be directly used to project his abilities as a starter, but at least gives a glimpse of his upside. So, excluding Uehara for now, here are the starting candidates with my own estimated playing time, a Wins Above Replacement player value, and the salary that should merit:
| Player | FIP | IP | WAR | ESAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Garland | 4.38 | 190 | 1.99 | 10.94 |
| Kenshin Kawakami | 3.86 | 170 | 2.76 | 15.20 |
| Derek Lowe | 3.66 | 200 | 3.67 | 20.20 |
| Pedro Martinez | 4.70 | 160 | 1.13 | 6.22 |
| Oliver Perez | 4.83 | 190 | 1.04 | 5.72 |
| Ben Sheets | 3.77 | 170 | 2.93 | 16.14 |
| Randy Wolf | 4.38 | 170 | 1.78 | 9.80 |
Two names you don't hear connected to the Mets very often, Sheets and Kawakami, compare favorably. Most people have an opinion on Sheets and whether the Mets should sign him, but Kawakami is more unknown. NPB tracker characterizes him as "slightly better than Hiroki Kuroda." That comparison reminded me of another interesting comparison I previously stumbled upon and can only describe as a microcosm for all baseball discussion on the internet. I'll let you sort that one out on your own (if you want), the point being Hiroki Kuroda was a great sign for the Dodgers and his comparison to Kawakami adds legitimacy to these projections. If the Mets get Kawakami or Uehara for something around the 3/35 that the Dodgers signed Kuroda, they could have a real bargain. Throw in Sheets or Lowe into that mix and they could have a real good rotation.
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12 comments
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Comments
wow
that thread on ProSportsDaily makes my head hurt
by JoshNY on Dec 23, 2008 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
4.38 FIP for Garland
I’m gonna have to go ahead and disagree. Seems a tad bit low but I guess it isn’t too ridiculous. Yeah, he’s not yet 30 but he’s been on a decline each of the last 3 seasons. But what do I know.
Great stuff otherwise!
by James Kannengieser on Dec 23, 2008 11:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Chone
I imagine Church comes out positive when you factor in defense but eek @ our projected left field projection. I imagine when you factor in defense we’re getting close to negative production from our corners and first base all together.
by Gina on Dec 23, 2008 12:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Update...
Teixeira goes to Yankees. 8 yr / $170 million
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3790141
" When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? " - John Meynard Keynes
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 23, 2008 3:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
update again
ESPN “now” reporting 8 yr / $180 million
" When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? " - John Meynard Keynes
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 23, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bad news for Mets fans
Sox going after Lowe now?
by James Kannengieser on Dec 23, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was really pulling for the Sox to get Tex
Just for that reason. Here’s where it gets interesting.
by James Kannengieser on Dec 23, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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