Mets Make Offer To Rodriguez
by Eric Simon on Dec 8, 2008 9:52 PM EST
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PrintPer various sources, the Mets had dinner last night with Francisco Rodriguez and have reportedly extended a two-year, $25 million offer to him. The alleged offer would also include some kind of third-year option. Paul Kinzer, the agent for Rodriguez, seems inclined to fashion a creative deal that might carry short-term incentives for his client, while allowing him to become a free agent again before he turns 30.
Given these details, and also given that Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes are both Type A free agents, the Mets would seemingly be better off giving Kerry Wood the same two-plus-one deal, presumably for less money, and keeping the extra draft pick for themselves (or to use compensation for signing a different free agent for whom there is no reasonable compensation-free alternative).
UPDATE [8:31am]: MLB.com is reporting (via SI.com) that the Mets have increased their offer to something like three years, $37 million, and that both sides believe a deal can be struck within the next 24 hours.
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Please, Jeebus no.
Let’s not make this mistake. Rodriguez is overrated, Omar. Don’t be seduced by the sexy save stats! Save your money and sign Wood to a short-term, incentive-laden contract. And keep working on that trade for Huston Street. Just not Rodriguez, he’s not worth the money.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Dec 8, 2008 10:58 PM EST reply actions
I like Wood
" CITI...It's only money. "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 9, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
yes
more of this please
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself in to trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
I like the years
I like the idea of a 2-3 year contract because, well, I probably spent as much time as anyone railing on the notion of the 5-7 year contract everyone thought K-Rod was gonna get. I just think the money is way more than we should pay for this guy, especially when opting for someone like Wood would give us the opportunity (i.e. money/compensation) to go after a Juan Cruz as well, maybe?
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 8, 2008 11:06 PM EST reply actions
dude should fire his agent
He should be looking for years above all else right now, given the overpayment he’s likely to get and the regression he’s likely to suffer. At 2-3 years he might actually be almost worth it.
It's a slow market
Right now, in this market, how many teams are lining up to offer long-term deals to anyone? Over the past few years, teams have collectively gotten smarter about free agency. Throw in a tanking economy, and it’s not really a good market to try for a huge deal in. True, he’ll likely be worse off in 2-3 years, but I’m not sure he’s going to be able to find a better deal, length-wise, anywhere.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Dec 9, 2008 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
i don't know
k-rod’s only 28, so he probably won’t regress too much if at all. and he’ll be playing with the mets, which should guarantee plenty of save opportunities and media exposure. so i think it’s likely in three years that he’ll still be considered a dominant closer and might be able to steal a long term contract then. better to get a five or six year deal when you’re 31 than at 28, since regression and/or injury will be much more likely from age 32 onwards.
Age
He’s actually only 26 years old. The 3-year deal puts him back into free agency before he is 30.
by DannyMetsGeek on Dec 9, 2008 9:22 AM EST up reply actions
i hope omar doent f this all up
maybe i’m just still bitter about the eagles game but i dont have much confidence in omar right now. i feel like we’re all just waiting for news that we hope isnt totally retarded.
That's how I felt this off-season
I fully expected to wake up one morning to find out we’d traded the farm for Raul Ibanez or something.
I'm OK with 3 years $37 million
and no 4th year option. That’s pretty reasonable. IF that actually is the contract value and K-Rod signs it.
by James Kannengieser on Dec 9, 2008 6:59 AM EST up reply actions
sonuva
It’s no good unless we get Wood or Fuentes with him. I’m just not down with it. We’ll see how he pitches this season.
Who's world is it? It's yours.
Silver lining
If we sign K-Rod and give up draft picks, maybe we’re less likely to sign Ibanez and give up more draft picks.
If the Mets give up a first round pick for K-Rod
Then they’ll only have to give up a second round pick for Ibanez. Bargain!
3 years is OK
I was worried about, say, 6 years (with 2 of them inevitably lost to Tommy John surgery), but I’d be OK with this deal. The guy is still young and while, yes, I worry about his elbow, the fewer years, the less likely it is that his elbow will blow out while the Mets have him.
Now as long as Minaya doesn’t hang up a “Mission Accomplished” banner after this deal and goes on to make additional moves to bolster the bullpen, I’ll be happy.
Vote change: DePodesta/Acta in 2009!!!
I can live with this
But I really wish the Mets had spent this money on a power hitter or TWO relievers instead. Relief pitchers do not have to be expensive!
I see your point
But let’s wait and see how much more money they go spend on other guys (and, for that matter, whether this deal actually goes forward as quoted) before we start worrying that they should’ve spent this money elsewhere.
I can live with this
I think K-Rod is suffering from the “so overrated he’s become underrated” phenomenon. You guys are making it sound like we just offered a 19 year deal to Joe Borowski or something. K-Rod might not be the best closer in baseball, but he’s pretty damn good, and he’s still young. And only giving him 3 years isn’t bad AT ALL, nor is the yearly salary.
And some of you are worried about his elbow, but are advocating signing KERRY WOOD instead!?!? Seriously? If you’re worried about his elbow, fine, advocate Fuentes. If you’re worried about the money, fine, sign Wood. But you can’t have it both ways.
I think I said this before
The thing I liked about Wood is the money and draft pick we saved would allow us to bring in more reliable arms, in case something did happen to him. I’d feel more comfortable with something like Wood, Street/Hoffman, Juan Cruz, then just K-rod and something like K-rod, Street/Hoffman and probably “scrap heap” type players. So even if Wood was to get injured we’d still have pretty strong 9th and 8th innings guys If K-rod gets injured it will be more of a toss-up.
Hoffman
Should not be uttered from anyone’s mouth.
" CITI...It's only money. "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 9, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Why not?
For the right price, you don’t think he’d be a good 8th inning option?
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 9, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Don't you know?
The fact that he once gave up a 3-run homer to Scott Brosius in the World Series is WAY more important than a career K/9 > 9 or K/BB > 3.
wow
I was about to use stats to show why I don’t want Hoffman, only he’s been MUCH better than I thought the last few years. I thought he was washed up, but other than his ERA, he was still really, really good last year. If he’s willing to come onboard as a non-closer, I’ll take him in a heartbeat.
Things Scott Brosius did are very important
He has the heart of a champion.
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 9, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
has anyone ever had a stranger 3 years
than Brosius, 1996-1998:
’96 – 127 OPS+
’97 – 53 OPS+
’98 – 121 OPS+
Wow
Never cared enough about the guy to take a look but that is pretty ridiculous.
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 9, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
I was on BB-reference
when I saw your comment, so I just plugged his name in. That was during the period when Cashman had the golden touch, he plucked so many guys off the trash heap and they bounced back big time with the Yanks. Then they lost the 2001 World Series and decided to outspend the rest of the Majors for “name” players. Good move…
+1
for the Homestar Runner reference. It’s been too long (Clanky) since I heard that.
Ha
I didn’t type it with that in mind but, after I wrote it, I remembered Little Brudder.
'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 9, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Brosius
He stole Don Mattingly’s heart? Oh, wait…
by BobbyV_Incognito on Dec 9, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
well
why don’t we wait and see how Omar spends the rest of his money. The Mets can certainly afford to sign K-Rod, trade for Street, and even pick up one or two more decent bullpen pieces. Overspending on middle relief isn’t a good idea anyway, as has been proven time and time again (Scott Schoenweiss, anyone?) Rob Neyer did a piece about that a few months ago, actually.
If we were the Pirates, then signing K-Rod, which would probably cripple the rest of our offseason, would be a terrible idea. But the Mets are gonna be in the #2-4 slot in terms of total payroll, so they can afford to throw money around a little bit.
The Way the Mets seem to be Approaching the Market
No interest in Tex, or in any of the top pitchers makes me think K-rod is going to be our biggest addition. And personally I don’t think overpaying for closers makes much more sense than overpaying for middle relief.
Might even make more sense to overpay for middle relief
If those middle relievers will be pitching mostly in key situations instead of exclusively in save situations.
Neyers point
in his article was that there’s so much variance in relief pitcher performance from year-to-year that it’s really not worthwhile to invest big money in them. That’s not to say you should just raid the scrap heap, but it’s very rare that a big-deal for a middle reliever turns out well. Closers, on the other hand, tend to be slightly more consistent than middle relievers (maybe b/c by their nature they are the best pitchers in the bullpen?), and they are going to get paid big money b/c of their stature, so even though they might not be as valuable as having 5 good middle relievers, you are gonna have to pay more for a good closer.
I imagine some of the variance
is more because of people just looking at surface stats like ERA in WHIP, which can be easily skewed because of the low number of innings pitched.
That's kind of the point, though
Starting pitcher ERAs fluctuate quite a bit from year to year (it’s a sample size issue, really), so the problem is exacerbated when relievers pitch only 30-40% of the innings of a starter. Over a long enough period of time, the pitcher with the great peripherals (and groundball rate) will almost always be the better pitcher, but there’s a lot of noise in such a small set of innings so even the best pitchers, peripheral-wise, will have the odd crummy season, relatively speaking.
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