Community Projection: Carlos Delgado

I talked a bit about Carlos Delgado yesterday, and how you'd have to be Kreskin to know what to expect out of him next year. His power could continue to dissolve mysteriously into the ether otherwise known as baseball twilight, or he could bounce back a bit and post numbers more in line with his natural decline. The latter could very well represent an improvement over his 2007 performance, and as I noted yesterday, anything resembling league average production at first base will be extraordinarily uplifting for the Mets' offense.

So, now it's your turn. Look into your crystal ball, flip over your tarot cards, wiggle your fingers around frantically and try to figure out what the near future holds for Mr. Delgado. Any hope at predicting the future requires at least a pedestrian understanding of the past, so here is what Delgado has done over the last three seasons.

Year PA BB K HR AVG OBP SLG
2005 616 72 121 33 .301 .399 .582
2006 618 74 120 38 .265 .361 .548
2007 607 52 118 24 .258 .333 .448

Two things to note here: the 36 point dropoff in batting average from 2005 to 2006, and the 100 point decline in slugging last season. His batting average only fell seven points last year, so the slugging decline was almost strictly a loss of power. In other words, Delgado's regression in OBP and SLG from 2005 to 2006 can mostly be attributed to his batting average decline; we can't say the same thing about his performance last season.

Delgado is a fun and interesting case for the community to project, so have at it. Project Carlos Delgado's 2008 performance in the following categories:

  1. Plate appearances
  2. Walks
  3. Strikeouts
  4. Homeruns
  5. Batting average
  6. On-base percentage
  7. Slugging percentage
Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

PA,BB,K,HR,AVG,OBP,SLG You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

5800,55,125,25,.255,.350,.430

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end. Don't forget any of the categories; I will be forced to discard any incomplete projections.

With all of that in the back of your mind, let 'er rip.

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