Community Projection: Johan Santana

You might have noticed all of the hullabaloo last week when the Mets did something or other. It wasn't because they came to terms on a one-year deal with lefty specialist Pedro Feliciano, though that's certainly good news. The principals in a trade for Johan Santana were agreed upon last Tuesday afternoon, though it took three-plus days of contract negotiations and a physical exam to set everything into stone. Santana's a Met, and it's easy to get carried away with projections for him upon his arrival at Shea and his ensuing battles with the weaker lineups of the National League.

Here we go, then. Punxsutawney Phil showed us what's what on Saturday, but now it's time for us to put on our prognosticating hats and take a stab at predicting Santana's performance in 2008. Here's what he has done over the past three seasons with the Twins.

Year GS IP H BB K HR W L ERA
2005 33 231.2 180 45 238 22 16 7 2.87
2006 34 233.2 186 47 245 24 19 6 2.77
2007 33 219.0 183 52 235 33 15 13 3.33

We will project Sir Johan in the following categories:

  1. Games started
  2. Innings pitched
  3. Hits
  4. Walks
  5. Strikeouts
  6. Homeruns allowed
  7. Wins
  8. Losses
  9. ERA
And the customary disclaimer:

Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA

You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

20,140,130,45,135,16,10,6,3.50

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end.

And... go!

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