Community Projection: Johan Santana
You might have noticed all of the hullabaloo last week when the Mets did something or other. It wasn't because they came to terms on a one-year deal with lefty specialist Pedro Feliciano, though that's certainly good news. The principals in a trade for Johan Santana were agreed upon last Tuesday afternoon, though it took three-plus days of contract negotiations and a physical exam to set everything into stone. Santana's a Met, and it's easy to get carried away with projections for him upon his arrival at Shea and his ensuing battles with the weaker lineups of the National League.
Here we go, then. Punxsutawney Phil showed us what's what on Saturday, but now it's time for us to put on our prognosticating hats and take a stab at predicting Santana's performance in 2008. Here's what he has done over the past three seasons with the Twins.
| Year | GS | IP | H | BB | K | HR | W | L | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 33 | 231.2 | 180 | 45 | 238 | 22 | 16 | 7 | 2.87 |
| 2006 | 34 | 233.2 | 186 | 47 | 245 | 24 | 19 | 6 | 2.77 |
| 2007 | 33 | 219.0 | 183 | 52 | 235 | 33 | 15 | 13 | 3.33 |
We will project Sir Johan in the following categories:
- Games started
- Innings pitched
- Hits
- Walks
- Strikeouts
- Homeruns allowed
- Wins
- Losses
- ERA
Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:
GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:
20,140,130,45,135,16,10,6,3.50
Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end.
And... go!
0 recs |
29
comments
Comments
Santana
Being in the NL will lower his IP, ERA, H, and HR, but will increase his W's.
by sireric on Feb 5, 2008 10:28 AM EST 0 recs
Santana
I'm thinking the opposite, in a certain fashion. I think Willie is going to ride Santana as much as possible to save the pen a little. Increase in IP. Slight increase in BB (walking hitters intentionally to get to the pitcher), and a Cy Young type season other than that.
by Lunkwill Fook on Feb 5, 2008 10:37 AM EST 0 recs
Cy-tana
by future on Feb 5, 2008 10:53 AM EST 0 recs
Santana
34,228,168,51,239,22,21,8,2.75
by twassel on Feb 5, 2008 11:39 AM EST 0 recs
Johan
33,221,170,44,230,23,20,5,2.45
by whynot on Feb 5, 2008 12:02 PM EST 0 recs
Johan is the man?
by Manhasset Paulie on Feb 5, 2008 12:35 PM EST 0 recs
JOHAN!
by kingcritical on Feb 5, 2008 12:56 PM EST 0 recs
Very interesting
by sireric on Feb 5, 2008 1:17 PM EST 0 recs
Santana-dana
27,180,165,43,200,20,15,6,2.97
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Feb 5, 2008 1:21 PM EST 0 recs
A modest prediction (and first post)
by Trotsky on Feb 5, 2008 2:15 PM EST 0 recs
whoops, make that
ignore my last post
by JohnP on Feb 5, 2008 3:02 PM EST 0 recs
GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
by Greenpoint Ian on Feb 5, 2008 5:34 PM EST 0 recs
I almost match his 3 year averages
by wrightHOF on Feb 5, 2008 6:52 PM EST 0 recs
Strahan will sodmoize Santana's anus
by NYChokers on Feb 6, 2008 1:27 AM EST 0 recs
ha ha!
by sireric on
Feb 6, 2008 6:44 AM EST
up
0 recs
what great burg do you hail from
by DoctorK16 on
Feb 6, 2008 7:43 AM EST
up
0 recs
michael strahan is a great man
by kendynamo on
Feb 6, 2008 10:27 AM EST
up
0 recs
Season for the ages
by DoctorK16 on Feb 6, 2008 7:42 AM EST 0 recs
AL to NL effect.
Johan will enjoy pitching to other pitchers instead of DHs.
BTW, I saw somewhere that he hit appx. .250 in interleague play. Always nice to have a pitcher who can swing the bat a little.
by madisonmetsfan on Feb 6, 2008 9:19 AM EST 0 recs
GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
.299/.362/.543
.304/.396/.474
.317/.363/.517
.289/.375/.478
.288/.387/.474
.305/.385/.479
.278/.339/.399
Pick your poison
by BlackOps on Feb 7, 2008 2:42 PM EST 0 recs
GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
by citimetro on Feb 7, 2008 3:22 PM EST 0 recs












