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Community Projection: Johan Santana

You might have noticed all of the hullabaloo last week when the Mets did something or other. It wasn't because they came to terms on a one-year deal with lefty specialist Pedro Feliciano, though that's certainly good news. The principals in a trade for Johan Santana were agreed upon last Tuesday afternoon, though it took three-plus days of contract negotiations and a physical exam to set everything into stone. Santana's a Met, and it's easy to get carried away with projections for him upon his arrival at Shea and his ensuing battles with the weaker lineups of the National League.

Here we go, then. Punxsutawney Phil showed us what's what on Saturday, but now it's time for us to put on our prognosticating hats and take a stab at predicting Santana's performance in 2008. Here's what he has done over the past three seasons with the Twins.

Year GS IP H BB K HR W L ERA
2005 33 231.2 180 45 238 22 16 7 2.87
2006 34 233.2 186 47 245 24 19 6 2.77
2007 33 219.0 183 52 235 33 15 13 3.33

We will project Sir Johan in the following categories:

  1. Games started
  2. Innings pitched
  3. Hits
  4. Walks
  5. Strikeouts
  6. Homeruns allowed
  7. Wins
  8. Losses
  9. ERA
And the customary disclaimer:

Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA

You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

20,140,130,45,135,16,10,6,3.50

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end.

And... go!

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

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Santana
34,205,170,50,255,19,21,9,2.65

Being in the NL will lower his IP, ERA, H, and HR, but will increase his W's.

If you gonna act like a fool, I'm gonna treat you like a fool....Fool ~Judge Greg T. Mathis~

by sireric on Feb 5, 2008 10:28 AM EST   0 recs

Santana
34,225,176,65,241,21,20,5,2.68

I'm thinking the opposite, in a certain fashion.  I think Willie is going to ride Santana as much as possible to save the pen a little.  Increase in IP.  Slight increase in BB (walking hitters intentionally to get to the pitcher), and a Cy Young type season other than that.

by Lunkwill Fook on Feb 5, 2008 10:37 AM EST   0 recs

Cy-tana
34,232,168,47,251,23,20,7,2.58
"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on Feb 5, 2008 10:53 AM EST   0 recs

Santana
GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA

34,228,168,51,239,22,21,8,2.75

Let's Go Mets!

by twassel on Feb 5, 2008 11:39 AM EST   0 recs

Johan
GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA

33,221,170,44,230,23,20,5,2.45

by whynot on Feb 5, 2008 12:02 PM EST   0 recs

Johan is the man?
33,225,183,50,233,22,19,6,2.78

by Manhasset Paulie on Feb 5, 2008 12:35 PM EST   0 recs

Projections
33,228,172,50,285,26,18,7,2.42

by dkresh on Feb 5, 2008 12:52 PM EST   0 recs

JOHAN!
34,225,179,50,239,25,21,4,2.80
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Feb 5, 2008 12:56 PM EST   0 recs

Very interesting
Of the 8 projections, no body has him winning less than 18 games, and 6 of us have him winning 20 or more. Are we expecting too much out of this guy?
If you gonna act like a fool, I'm gonna treat you like a fool....Fool ~Judge Greg T. Mathis~

by sireric on Feb 5, 2008 1:17 PM EST   0 recs

Santana-dana
GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
27,180,165,43,200,20,15,6,2.97

vr, Xei

Baseball, it is what it is.

by Xeifrank on Feb 5, 2008 1:21 PM EST   0 recs

A modest prediction (and first post)
33, 225, 180, 55, 225, 25, 15, 8, 3.01

by Trotsky on Feb 5, 2008 2:15 PM EST   0 recs

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
31,202,170,42,K,251,19,7,2.99

by JohnP on Feb 5, 2008 3:01 PM EST   0 recs

whoops, make that
31,202,170,42,251,19,19,7,2.99

ignore my last post

by JohnP on Feb 5, 2008 3:02 PM EST   0 recs

Santana
31,196,180,50,225,25,18,7,2.91

by sincethebeginning on Feb 5, 2008 3:52 PM EST   0 recs

Sucktana
0-4,9.54, blows out elbow by May.

by NYChokers on Feb 5, 2008 3:57 PM EST   0 recs

ha ha!
yeah, hilarious!!!

by kendynamo on Feb 5, 2008 5:27 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Broham Santana
34,210,180,45,240,25,18,5,3.15

by kendynamo on Feb 5, 2008 5:27 PM EST   0 recs

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
33,218,167,48,249,24,21,6,2.69
Flushing, Queens: soon to be known as Johan's-burg!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Feb 5, 2008 5:34 PM EST   0 recs

I almost match his 3 year averages
31,228.3,185,51,245,14,21,7,2.83
When asked why I was a Mets fan, I responded, "pain is my lifeblood."

by wrightHOF on Feb 5, 2008 6:52 PM EST   0 recs

santastic
i predict a riot.
I.M. Forme

by itsmetsforme on Feb 5, 2008 11:38 PM EST   0 recs

Strahan will sodmoize Santana's anus
Get ready to be fucked by Smoltz you fags.

by NYChokers on Feb 6, 2008 1:27 AM EST   0 recs

ha ha!
Sounds like somebody is jealous. perhaps you would like a visit from Strahan.
If you gonna act like a fool, I'm gonna treat you like a fool....Fool ~Judge Greg T. Mathis~

by sireric on Feb 6, 2008 6:44 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

what great burg do you hail from
we should call the authorities there and tell them to annul your mom incestuous marriage
Keep Lastings Milledge Free

by DoctorK16 on Feb 6, 2008 7:43 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

michael strahan is a great man
and a true champion.  he can sodomize my anus any day.  

by kendynamo on Feb 6, 2008 10:27 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Season for the ages
34,220,190,40,220,15,21,7,1.99
Keep Lastings Milledge Free

by DoctorK16 on Feb 6, 2008 7:42 AM EST   0 recs

AL to NL effect.
33,228,177,42,255,25,22,5,2.37

Johan will enjoy pitching to other pitchers instead of DHs.

BTW, I saw somewhere that he hit appx. .250 in interleague play.  Always nice to have a pitcher who can swing the bat a little.

by madisonmetsfan on Feb 6, 2008 9:19 AM EST   0 recs

Pinch hitters
34,224,187,50,237,23,20,7,2.83

by vonhayes on Feb 6, 2008 9:26 AM EST   0 recs

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
32,220,175,40,250,20,21,5,2.40
.318/.379/.591
.299/.362/.543
.304/.396/.474
.317/.363/.517
.289/.375/.478
.288/.387/.474
.305/.385/.479
.278/.339/.399
Pick your poison

by BlackOps on Feb 7, 2008 2:42 PM EST   0 recs

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
33,205,178,44,220,28,18,6,2.88

by citimetro on Feb 7, 2008 3:22 PM EST   0 recs

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