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Aftermath: Game 1 - Mets vs Marlins

A long offseason of bitter depression gave way to childlike optimism, all of which culminated in a much-anticipated baseball game played yesterday afternoon at Dolphins Stadium in Miami. The Mets won the game 7-2 behind a great starting effort by Johan Santana and a solid wrap-up by the bullpen. The game was exciting for all of the obvious reasons, but it was also interesting in the sense that it was a sort of microcosm of my own expectations of the season to come. Some observations:

Johan Santana is reasonably proficient

Seven innings, three hits, two runs, eight strikeouts, a couple of walks, 100 pitches, 68 strikes. He looked merely good at times, masterful at others. Some will point out the fact that he dominated a pretty crummy Marlins team. I'll point out that even without Miguel Cabrera the Marlins have a pretty good offense, capable of putting up at least league average production. Their pitching is wretched, and will lead to their undoing, but they are far from anemic with the bat. Santana gave up the two-run blast to Josh Willingham that broke up the prematurely-prognosticated no-hitter in the fourth inning, but otherwise prevented the Marlins from sustaining any kind of consistent attack.

What's more, Santana seemed to moxie up* as the innings wore on. His pitch count hit the century mark just as he struck out Matt Treanor to end the seventh inning, and were it later in the season and the game of greater import you can be sure that Santana would have gone back out there for the eighth. A fine debut by almost any measure.

* Made up expression. Think "Cowboy Up", only add 47% more moxie and a sprig of your favorite tired baseball cliché. Allow to cool, serve and enjoy.

The top half of the lineup is good

The top four spots in the Mets lineup -- Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, David Wright and Carlos Beltran -- combined to go 7-for-16 with three walks, a resplendent performance from a group of hitters who will be expected to shoulder much of this team's offensive payload. Each member of the quartet reached base at least twice, with Castillo and Wright reaching three times apiece. Reyes and Wright each got a little overzealous on the basepaths, getting thrown out stealing second and third, respectively. Replays show that one or both might have actually been safe, but it was a bad day on the bases for a team that led the National League in swipes last season.

The bottom half of the order is bad

The bottom four spots in the lineup -- Carlos Delgado, Angel Pagan, Ryan Church and Brian Schneider -- combined to go 2-for-14 with a walk, an underwhelming effort even for this group. The two hits *did* contribute to the Mets' six-run fourth inning, with Pagan and Church knocking in the first two runs of the game. I'm not going to get too down on this group after just one game, but let's just say that my opinion of them as offensive performers wasn't swayed much by the results of this particular contest.

Willie properly leveraging his bullpen

Bwaaahh? Bullpen management has been one of Willie Randolph's most egregious failings as Mets skipper, but he did a fine job yesterday of leveraging the platoon advantage held by some of his relievers. Matt Wise relieved Santana to begin the eighth inning and allowed two of the first three hitters to reach base. With Mike Jacobs approaching the dish, Willie Randolph pulled Wise in favor of Schoeneweis to get the lefty-lefty matchup that swung the balance in the Mets' favor. Were the game closer, the bullpen call would have gone to Pedro Feliciano, but if you can't bring in The Show to face a lefty with a four-run lead in the first game of the season, you probably can't bring him in at all. Schoeneweis got Jacobs to ground out harmlessly to first, advancing the baserunners to second-and-third in the process.

Were this 2007 (or 2006 or 2005 for that matter), I was pretty confident that Schoeneweis would have been left in the game to face Willingham, who had homered four innings earlier. Willie Randolph v2008.1 had other ideas, though, and signaled the bullpen to send in Jorge Sosa and his tornado slider, utilizing the righty-righty platoon advantage against Willingham. Sosa struck out the Marlins left-fielder to end the threat, and after the Mets added a tack-on run in the top of the ninth Aaron Heilman came on and blew away Jorge Cantu, Cody Ross and Luis Gonzalez to wrap up the Mets' first win of the season and Johan Santana's first win as a Met.

The best part? The Mets are 1-0 and they still have Pedro Martinez taking the mound tonight. How good does that feel?

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It feels pretty friggin good!

I think Delgado is going to bounce back a bit this year. But I've got no idea what to say about 6-8.

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Apr 1, 2008 12:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

heilman

i think a big year from heilman will be a huge boost. his last years years of ERA+ have been 130, 120 and 140. thats pretty good. i dont know if he has enough years left to be wagner's successor, and probably doesnt have the stuff either, but he improves at all this year he will be a mighty fine set up man.

by kendynamo on Apr 1, 2008 12:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Alou

Here's hoping he gets well soon. That will fix our left field issues. I'm not really worried about Church either. He's no...say...Lastings Milledge, but he can hit well enough.

by ams258 on Apr 1, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Willie and the bullpen

I can't believe it, but he did exactly the right thing with the 'pen. If he uses Show as a LOOGY and Sosa as a ROOGY, and we get good years out of Wise, Feliciano, and Heilman, I think the Mets bullpen will be a huge strength.

And you know whose bullpens have looked god-awful so far? Atlanta's and Philadelphia's.

Flushing, Queens: soon to be known as Johan's-burg!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Apr 1, 2008 12:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Delgado

At this point he should just pull up a stool at the Foxy Lady next to Bobby Bonilla and Mo Vaughn. The guy would be great to go out and get a few beers with, but the site of him with a bat in his hands sends me into a rage. We cannot accomplish any of our goals if we have a big, gaping void in production from our 1B/No. 5 slot. He absolutely killed us last year and he's going to kill us this year.

Pagan is going to contribute this year. You can tell he approaches playing in New York as a challenge. Church could go either way. I would accept Derek Bell-type numbers out of him (the first year, not Operation Shutdown year). But our outfield production and 1B production is going to be far below Philly and Atlanta this year.

Good thing we have all the pitching though!

by Doc's Sports Predictions Guy on Apr 1, 2008 3:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

1B production

Has Mark Teixeira said anything about wanting or not wanting to sign a contract extension in Atlanta? He'd be a pretty nice free agent pickup next winter.

by JoshNY on Apr 1, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Teixeira is a Boras client

He won't be signing an extension

by ams258 on Apr 1, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hah, I was thinking the same

Tex will not be signing an extension with the Braves, we need to get in there and sign him.

"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on Apr 1, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Of course, Ollie Perez is a Boras client too, so that'll be a potential headache next winter.

by JoshNY on Apr 1, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope Pagan contributes

But come on, he's Angel Freaking Pagan!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/paganan01.shtml

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=10928

I don't see anything there suggesting that Pagan can contribute - not with his bat anyway.

by ams258 on Apr 1, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yup

He seems like a good guy, but his history shows nothing that would foretell sudden success at the big league level.

by Eric Simon on Apr 1, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pagan

For what it's worth, PECOTA's weighted mean projections for him are:

174 PA
.249/.313/.389
8 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR
32 K, 14 BB
6 SB, 2 CS

Not bad for a bench player, but not what you'd like to get out of an everyday corner outfielder.

What? I paid for a Baseball Prospectus subscription, may as well use it.

by JoshNY on Apr 1, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

huh?

The guy went 0-3 with a walk yesterday. Granted, I didn't watch the game, but can we at least give him until May before we declare him washed up? He hit a lot better after the all-star break last year, so I'm optimistic he isn't done.

Flushing, Queens: soon to be known as Johan's-burg!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Apr 1, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We'll see

Usually players who don't hit well in the minors also don't hit well in the majors. But you never know - I was definitely wrong about Endy.

Also, Josh, thanks for the PECOTA projection. Keep them coming!

by ams258 on Apr 1, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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