Carlos Beltran: Clutch in September 2007?

by ZaBlanc on Apr 22, 2008 3:58 PM EDT

So, I seem to get challenged on my assertions of whether Carlos Beltran is a "big time" player.

My observations are simple:In big situations, Carlos rarely performs. In fundamental RBI positions, Carlos routinely strikes out or fails to advance runners . In all other situations and facets of the game, he is an excellent player.

So, based on a challenge, here is Carlos's September 2007 performance, game by game. Note that I don't care about his overall numbers. I'm looking on critical situations and how he responds. Here they are:

9/1 - Mets win comfortably, 5-1.

9/2 - With Mets up just 3-1 in 8th, Beltran leads off with walk and steal. (good)

9/3 - Mets win comfortably, 10-4.

9/4 - With Mets down 5-3 in 6th, Beltran hits 2-run homer to tie game. (good)

9/5 - With Mets down 3-0 in 4th, 1st and 2nd, none out, Beltran strikes out, failing to advance baserunners. (bad)

9/10 - With Mets up 3-2, bottom of the 8th, Wright on 2nd with 1 out, Beltran strikes out, failing to advance runner. (bad)

9/12 - Tied 3-3, Beltran leads off 8th by singling and stealing. (good) (At this point I am reliving the nightmare of last season...how did we lose this???)

9/14 - Tied 2-2 in 8th against Phillies, bases loaded, Beltran strikes out. (baaad)

9/15 - Mets down 5-3 in 9th, runners on 1st and 2nd, flied out to end game. (bad) Game including this: "Carlos Beltran misplayed Jimmy Rollins' line drive into a two-run triple and the Philadelphia Phillies rallied to beat New York 5-3 Saturday for their seventh straight victory over the Mets."

9/16 - Beltran hits 3-run homer in 5th to tie game 5-5 against Phillies. (goooooood)

9/20 - Down 4-3 in 8th to Marlins, Wright on 1st, 0 out, Beltran strikes out failing to advance runner. (bad)

9/? - Rallying from 10-3 down in the 9th, at 10-6, 2 on, 1 out, Beltran walks in front of Alou's double. (ok)

9/28 - Down 7-4 in 7th, 1st and 3rd, 1 out, Beltran strikes out and fails to drive in runner from 3rd. (baaaad) Down 7-4, man on 2nd, 2 out, Beltran ends game with foul out. (bad)

9/30 - GO TO HELL TOM GLAVINE!

All in all, what do you think? Not a lot to go on. The list will seem picky, but it's objective.

Oh, yeah, guess who made the last out in Game 7 2006? Yeah.

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Not bad

So he did something good in 5 out of 12 chances? That’s a pretty good ratio (41.7%).

Let's Go Mets!

by twassel on Apr 22, 2008 4:06 PM EDT 0 recs

you beat me too it

There are even two game-tying homers in there.

I’m done having this argument, because I think my counterpart just undermined his own case by disproving his own points.

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Apr 22, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up 1 recs

Larger study?

I encourage you to do a larger study. Look at EVERY Met’s clutch numbers throughout their career. If the sample size is big enough, I’d be shocked if you didn’t find that their clutch numbers pretty much line up with their career numbers.

by ams258 on Apr 22, 2008 4:18 PM EDT 0 recs

Did you become a baseball fan in 2005 or later?

Even discounting all the rest of the nonsense involved in believing in this kind of clutch ability/grace under pressure/calm eyes/True Yankee bullshit based on random cherry-picked at-bats, how can anyone who watched the 2004 playoffs claims that Beltran is not good in “big time” situations?

As the FJMers recently wrote:

This is just inexplicable. Carlos Beltran, on the whole, has been brilliant in the playoffs, with an overall OPS of 1.302 and a slugging percentage of .817! He hit 3 home runs in the 2006 NLCS for the Mets. Do Lowell Cohn and son remember the 2004 playoffs, when for 12 games Carlos Beltran hit like he was using Mjolnir for a bat? He hit 8 home runs in 46 at bats! This is the choker you’re complaining about?

by anonymous on Apr 22, 2008 4:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Dude

He wasn’t a Met in 2004. I’m talking about NOW, where we have him locked in for over 20 mil. Also, 3 homers in 2006 is grand. He also had the chance to take us to the World Series and struck out on 3 pitches to end it. I am not talking about overall performance, I am talking about big-time ability to step up in a crucial situation. That is why he makes what he makes.

I swear, sometimes it’s like talking to Republicans. :-)

Aside from Game 1 in 2006, I can’t think of any big super moment where Beltran was our hero. Hence my analysis. But, let’s stop talking about 2004, his season numbers, and giving excuses why a guy being paid 15% of our payroll should be able to just put up good numbers.

David Wright MVP Watch: .311/4/14! (through 12 games)

by ZaBlanc on Apr 23, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

I can’t think of any big super moment where Beltran was our hero

What about the 16 inning solo shot off Madsen to win it? Or the Bomb off Izzy to beat the Cardinals? He’s had some big moments.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Apr 23, 2008 9:57 AM EDT up 0 recs

funny

Sometimes I feel like I’m talking to Mike Celizic or Bill Plaschke.

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Apr 23, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

That's bullshit

You’re completely making him the scapegoat because he made that last out, completely neglecting that:
A) He had been great that whole series
B) We wouldn’t have BEEN in the situation where we were trailing in the bottom of the 9th of game 7 if not for the fact that a quarter of the team shat the bed in that series. Endy and LoDuca and ‘Stache and Wright and Wagner and Trachsel were miserable. Reyes and Green and Ollie and Heilman and Mota were just kinda adequate. Reyes came up earlier that inning and also made an out. Valentin and Chavez had turns at bat with the bases loaded in the 6th and didn’t produce. Heilman gave up a home run to Yadier fucking Molina, who’d hit six that whole season.

I wanted him to get a hit there as much as you did, but I’m not making him the scapegoat for other players’ failures.

by JoshNY on Apr 23, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up 0 recs

there's no making sense of this

Seriously, can you provide some stable, objective, non-arbitrary definition of what constitutes a “big super moment” or a “crucial situation”? It seems like at least a half dozen times in this discussion that people have presented strong evidence of Beltran’s amazing performance only to be told that their evidence doesn’t count because it somehow fails to meet your moving-target criteria for a true ZaBlanc Superstar Hero Clutch Moment™ rather than a mere Well-Paid Ballplayer Whatever Moment.

Beltran wasn’t a Met yet in 2004? Doesn’t count. Beltran got the game-winning hit before the ninth inning? Doesn’t count. Beltran’s postseason batting numbers are unbelievably higher than his already superstar-level regular-season line? That’s “just putting up good numbers,” not being a Clutch Hero. You can see the confusion here; the rest of us take your claims to be assertions about Beltran’s ability to win important ballgames, which he is empirically very good at, but the clutch-hero thing is apparently not really open to argument based on facts, because the facts can always be selectively ignored in procrustean fashion to fit the claim that you’ve already decided has to be true, apparently just because it was so frustrating that he struck out once in the NLCS.

by anonymous on Apr 23, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up 0 recs

Don't get me wrong

I think Beltran is pretty awesome.

But I have a similar gut feeling as ZaBlanc when it comes to Beltran. My gut remembers all those times he let me down, even though intellectually I know he’s spectacular.

I think it’s like my gf not remembering the 200 times a year I come straight home from work, but having MENSA-like recall of the one time I went to the Tiki Lounge, spent all my money on parrot-themed drinks, and threw up on the porch.

(Note: that might not have actually happened.)

by mmxii on Apr 23, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

"that is why he makes what he makes"

this is absurd. it’s not clear that anybody has this “big-time ability to step up in a crucial situation.”

It’s like saying people who get hit by falling space junk have this “big-time ability to be right where space junk is going to land.” It’s not ability, it’s just luck. If you get a hit 4 out of every 10 at-bats, chances are, some of them will be “big-time” hits, while others will come in the measly first inning, which we all know is so ridiculously un-big-time that it practically doesn’t even count as an inning. It’s like the penny and should be exported to central america or maybe iceland to be melted down into something of higher value than a mere inning.

“just put up good numbers” makes it sound like he goes to Shea and does paintings of digits on the wall, of no consequence to the performance of the team, but merely aesthetic in nature. it’s like all those selfish home runs people hit.

If you put up good numbers, your team will win. If everybody on this team put up numbers like Beltran…oy.

The craptacular thing about your system is this. Check out this game: http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2007-08-21&team=Mets&dh=0

In this game, the Mets beat the Padres 7-6. Carlos Beltran hit a 2-run homer, hit a 2-RBI double, walked, and hit a 1-RBI single. So that’s 5 RBI, a 1.000 OBP, 2.333 SLG, for a 3.333 OPS in this admittedly ridiculously small sample.

The problem is, they happened in that order. Yes, the single tied the game in the eighth, but check this out. The score went like this.

0-0, btm 1st, 2-run homer -> 2-0 Mets (Beltran)
2-0, top 3rd, 1-run single -> 2-1 Mets (Milton Bradley)
2-1, btm 3rd, 2-run double -> 4-1 Mets (Beltran)
4-1, top 6th, 1-run homer ->4-2 Mets (Mike Cameron)
4-2, top 6th, 1-run triple -> 4-3 Mets (Marcus Giles)
4-3, top 7th, 1-run double ->4-4 (Cameron)
4-4, top 7th, 1-run single -> 4-5 Padres (Khalil Greene)
4-5, btm 8th, 1-run single -> 5-5 (Beltran)
5-5. top 9th, 1-run SF -> 5-6 Padres (Kevin Kouzmanoff)
5-6, btm 9th, 1-run single -> 6-6 (Marlon Anderson)
5-7, btm 9th, 1-run single -> 7-6 Mets (Luis Castillo)

So your system pats Anderson and Castillo on the back. Yay for them for pulling it out in the bottom of the ninth, no doubt. But lets just swap the order of Beltran’s achievements.

0-0, btm 1st, 1-run single -> 1-0 Mets (Beltran)
1-0, top 3rd, 1-run single -> 1-1 (Milton Bradley)
1-1, btm 3rd, 2-run double -> 3-1 Mets (Beltran)
3-1, top 6th, 1-run homer ->3-2 Mets (Mike Cameron)
3-2, top 6th, 1-run triple -> 3-3 (Marcus Giles)
3-3, top 7th, 1-run double ->3-4 Padres (Cameron)
3-4, top 7th, 1-run single -> 3-5 Padres (Khalil Greene)
3-5, btm 8th, 2-run homer -> 5-5 (Beltran)
5-5. top 9th, 1-run SF -> 5-6 Padres (Kevin Kouzmanoff)
5-6, btm 9th, 1-run single -> 6-6 (Marlon Anderson)
5-7, btm 9th, 1-run single -> 7-6 Mets (Luis Castillo)

Now instead of a piddling 1-run single to tie the game in the eighth, it’s a 2-run blast. Now granted, maybe that home run is one of those “selfish, rally-killing home runs,” but still. Versus a single? C’mon.

This may be a little dodgy from a statistical point of view, but from a narrative point of view, which is the grounds you’re arguing on, it’s totally legit. Either way, in this game, Beltran carried the team on his back.

In 4 games last year, his WPA was >.30 (meaning he effectively and single-handedly gave the team 3/5 of what they needed to win). David Wright did that all of zero times last year.

This is ridiculous. Players don’t have all that many chances to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Nor is it clear that there’s any way to outperform your ability in those situations. Winning games day in and day out is why Beltran makes what he makes.

by jadelane on Apr 24, 2008 1:33 AM EDT up 0 recs

More info

Look more closely. In the September 1 game, Beltran led off a scoreless game in the second inning with a hit, and came around to score. In the 7th, he led off a tight 3-1 game with a HR. In the 9th, he led off with a triple and scored. Good game against a division opponent. You don’t mention it. Yes, the Mets “won comfortably”, but he played a big role in it.

You missed the 9/7 game, won by the Mets, in which he drove in the go ahead run in the third inning, and hit a homer to extend the lead in the fifth.

On 9/9 he drove in the first two runs, and doubled and scored the third run, in a 4-1 win in Pedro’s first start.

I can go through the rest of the games, but I think your definition of “clutch” is way too arbitrary.

Let's Go Mets!

by twassel on Apr 22, 2008 4:56 PM EDT 0 recs

No

1st inning and 3rd inning runs don’t count. Then I equally have to count every freakin out he made in a big game and you’d be cheesed at me for that—and it would be unfair.

but I think your definition of "clutch" is way too arbitrary.

Uh, no.

David Wright MVP Watch: .311/4/14! (through 12 games)

by ZaBlanc on Apr 23, 2008 9:50 AM EDT up 0 recs

huh?

IF 1st & 3rd inning runs don’t count,

THEN Glavine doesn’t get the loss on 9/30.

AND no-schoe costs us the season in a 1-0 nailbiter.

by mmxii on Apr 23, 2008 9:59 AM EDT up 0 recs

.366/.485/.817

I can’t find a player in history whose playoff line is that much better than his regular season line (.280/.354/.494).

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Apr 22, 2008 6:10 PM EDT 0 recs

Actually

I did fine one, but because of the “sample size” rule, I’m not going to put Delgado on here.

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Apr 23, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

heh

but Delgado really did rake that postseason, didn’t he?

by JoshNY on Apr 23, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

Look away from stats...

Look at situations.

David Wright MVP Watch: .311/4/14! (through 12 games)

by ZaBlanc on Apr 24, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

You mean like...

hitting incredibly well in the playoffs?

by JoshNY on Apr 24, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Apr 22, 2008 6:14 PM EDT 0 recs

that really is the perfect primer on clutchness

Here’s a clickable link to that article for those who are too lazy to cut and paste.

by anonymous on Apr 23, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up 0 recs

Here's another good one

By Mr. Neyer.

by Eric Simon on Apr 23, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

9/? game: a walk just 'ok'?

I think you’ve got to upgrade that to good. What should he do, swing at pitches out of the strike zone?

At your 9/1 summary is a little off. The Mets won comfortably because B-train tripled, homered, and scored 3 runs.

by mmxii on Apr 23, 2008 9:22 AM EDT 0 recs

of course he should!

A true big-game player would hit a game-winning homer while he was being intentionally walked. Taking a walk is a sign of laziness and lack of hustle. For the same reason, striking out looking is worse than striking out swinging. It shows a lack of concern.

by anonymous on Apr 23, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

HERE IS ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW

I have very strict standards when it comes to buying replica jerseys, and one of the most important criterion is that the replica must be of a player who is undoubtedly a BIG TIME player. and i hope everyone trusts that i did my due diligence before purchasing my beltran gray away jersey. thus by the transitive property beltran is indeed BIG TIME.

Q.E.D.

by kendynamo on Apr 23, 2008 9:33 AM EDT 0 recs

I own a Carlos Beltran T-shirt...

And?

David Wright MVP Watch: .311/4/14! (through 12 games)

by ZaBlanc on Apr 24, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

and i was being factitious

but seriously, beltran is the man.

by kendynamo on Apr 26, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up 0 recs

Every Run

is an important run. The vast majority of games are won in the first 3 innings, not the last 3.

The whole argument of clutch also assumes that players can choose when they are in a clutch situation. They can not. It’s not basketball where you get the ball in MJ’s hands for the last shot. It’s a team game, one where the very best of hitters succeed in not making outs 45% of the time, and very good ones 40%. Getting mad at players by cherry picking random at bats where he did not do well is crazy. You seem to expect Carlos to pick up a hit or get a homer every pressure situation. That’s just stupid.

When asked why I was a Mets fan, I responded, "pain is my lifeblood."

by wrightHOF on Apr 27, 2008 1:27 PM EDT 0 recs

MJ

You don’t get the ball in MJ’s hands for the last shot because he’s clutch, you get the ball in MJ’s hands for the last shot because he’s better at basketball than everybody else.

by JoshNY on Apr 27, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up 0 recs