Randolph's days are numbered

by TomDC on May 16, 2008 11:47 AM EDT

Aside from maybe Bobbie Cox and Tony LaRussa, no baseball manager is safe when their team performs below expectations for a prolonged period. The Mets have been underperforming for roughly 3 months now spanning back to last season.

The blame for the Mets poor performance is of course mostly attributable to the players -- Delgado's rapid descent, persistent mediocrity at 2B, the usually awful middle relief, the unreliability of the Mets 3-5 starters, two and a half outfielders the norm, Beltran's continued vulnerability to NY pressure, Wright and Reyes pressing when the rest of the team falters, etc. Nonetheless, I do believe that Randolph has done a poor job of bullpen management as well as putting together the best possible lineup each game. Another failing of Randolph in my opinion is that he's not adept at postively influencing team morale and individual attitudes.

Unless Pedro miracuously comes back and gives the Mets a solid half-season or so, I don't see the Mets making the playoffs without the attitude and positional adjustments from a new and more competent manager. Even with a healthy Pedro and a new manager, the Mets may not make the playoffs. Who on this team is likely to play better for the rest of the season? Maybe Wright and Reyes. The right side of infield looks hopeless. Sadly, I increasingly believe that Beltran will usually underachieve as long as he remains in NY. Heilman is another big disappointment to me. I was of the opinion that he should have been given more of an opportunity to prove himself as a starter, but now I have my doubts about whether he will ever resume being just a relibable middle reliever. I've had enough of Perez. Pelfrey? I dunno. Santana and Maine and then pray for rain?

With Rollins back I think the Phils will overtake the Marlins shortly. Unlike Delgado, you know Howard is not going to continue struggling for long. Without a new and improved manager and a relatively strong Pedro, I think the Mets will finish third, ten or more games behind the division winning Phils.

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When will Randoph be canned?

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I hate to have to keep repeating this

“Sadly, I increasingly believe that Beltran will usually underachieve as long as he remains in NY.”

You mean the underachieving that led him to win Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves each of the last two seasons? And in the same two seasons, have two of the ten best single-season RBI totals the Mets have ever had? Set a team record for runs scored and tied the team records for HR and extra base hits in 2006? Have the fifth best OPS in franchise history? And raked in the 2006 playoffs?

I’ll take that level of underachieving from everybody, please. If I had a team of eight Carlos Beltrans I would win a lot of baseball games.

Overall, I’m confused by your post. Your point seems to be that Randolph should/will be fired, but then you spend most of your words talking about how various players have underachieved, which would seem to suggest that it’s nor Randolph’s fault that the Mets aren’t winning a lot of games. Personally, I think the Mets should show him the door, but because he makes bad tactical decisions (bullpen use, lineup, EXCESSIVE BUNTING), not because “he’s not adept at postively influencing team morale and individual attitudes” or some other nebulous mumbo-jumbo.

by JoshNY on May 16, 2008 3:30 PM EDT 0 recs

My team of eight Carlos Beltrans wouldn't get many clutch hits, of course

But mainly because we’d score a pile of runs and be way ahead in a lot of our games

by JoshNY on May 16, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

Instead of repeat maybe you should pay closer attention

You mean the underachieving that led him to win Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves each of the last two seasons?
Yes, for what he’s being paid, a .246 BA and .428 SLG is definitely underachieving. Granted, he put up All-Star quality numbers the past two seasons, but I’m primarily talking about the state of the Mets now, and Beltran has certainly not been putting forth $18 million performance. Christ, until LA gave that boneheaded contract to Andruw, Beltran was the highest paid center fielder in the league—so he should be winning the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove.

Overall, I’m confused by your post. Your point seems to be that Randolph should/will be fired, but then you spend most of your words talking about how various players have underachieved, which would seem to suggest that it’s nor Randolph’s fault that the Mets aren’t winning a lot of games.
I attribute blame to both the players and Randolph, though more to the former. And I explicitly state that Randolph’s faults are both “poor job of bullpen management as well as putting together the best possible lineup each game” and the less empirical “mumbo jumbo” aspects of managing.

I actually have long admired Beltran. But I also think he’s the type of player who doesn’t handle the NY pressure well, and were he still on KC or Houston would possibly have played even better than his statistics here the past two years suggest he has. His home/away splits since coming to NY aren’t simply a product of Shea being more of pitchers park.

by TomDC on May 16, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Right

I understand that what Beltran has done thus far this season is underachieving. As Eric’s excellent post from earlier today points out, luck may play a role in this. Beltran’s line drive rate this year is an excellent 24.1%, actually significantly higher than his career norm of about 19%. With that line drive rate, you’d expect his BABIP to be about .360, but it’s just under .300. In other words, he’s hitting a lot of balls hard but right at guys. Note also that his walk rate remains good, so he’s not going up there stupidly hacking at everything trying to break out of his slump, so his OBP, while not as high as his stellar 2006, is above his career average. In other words, while he’s underachieving, there are indicators that his output should improve.

Concluding that Beltran can’t handle the NY pressure, despite his stellar 2006 (which was significantly better than any year he had in KC), 2006 playoffs, and 2007, because he’s off to a bad start through the first quarter of this season, is an awful example of “what have you done for me lately?” logic.

In any case, I think we agree about Willie.

by JoshNY on May 16, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up 0 recs