The More Things Change
by Eric Simon on Jun 18, 2008 1:08 AM EDT
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The Jerry Manuel era begins as inauspiciously as we could have imagined, with Jose Reyes departing with nondescript leg injury and the Mets managing practically nothing against John Lackey. Johan Santana did Manuel no favors by turning in a rare stinker, allowing five runs in six innings of work. Though, he's been terrible in Anaheim over the course of his career, sporting an ERA over five in four career starts there.
I really can't get over how bad this offense is. Even before Reyes left the game the Mets had Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson, Luis Castillo, Fernando Tatis, Carlos Delgado and Brian Schneider in the same lineup. Sans Reyes, you can add Damion Easley to that list. Bleah. That lineup won't win too many Triple-A games let along Major League ones. No one should be surprised at this point when the Mets struggle to score runs or maintain any type of offensive consistency. I must sound like a broken Allan Sherman record here, but without Ryan Church and Moises Alou -- or any reasonable facsimile thereof -- the Mets are going to have problems scoring runs all season. Much like last night's midnight massacre, Omar Minaya comes out smelling like crap.
Rick Peterson is gone and Omar Minaya continues to run this team into the ground. That there was no reasonable contingency for injuries to the corner outfielders is inexcusable and alone could be grounds for dismissal. If the Mets don't manage to generate any runs by the time the five-spot rolls around in the order then you can probably go fix a snack or take the dog for a walk because you be damned sure the Mets won't do anything for a couple of innings.
Big winners: Aaron Heilman, +0.7% WPA, Endy Chavez, +4.4% WPA
Big losers: Johan Santana, -23.9% WPA, Brian Schneider, -8.5% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Luis Castillo single in 1st, +8.6% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Torii Hunter two-run double, -17.1% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -23.8%
Total batter WPA: -26.2%
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so I looked it up
Here are the Mets that made up seven ninths of the lineup last night after Reyes came out of the game:
Castillo (OPS+ 93)
Delgado (OPS+ 91)
Schneider (OPS+ 72)
Easley (OPS+ 64)
Tatis (OPS+ 60)
Chavez (OPS+ 52)
Anderson (OPS+ 33!)
(By way of explanation for those who might not know, an OPS+ over 100 is better than average, and less than 100 is below average.)
That leaves Wright (OPS+ 126) and Beltran (OPS+ 125). To color in the picture a little, Chase Utley has an OPS+ of 155 right now.
Besides Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, these guys all are below-replacement-level players. Omar should be fired for fielding this team.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
Marlon Anderson is 33% of an average major-league baseball player?
Somehow that seems generous.
Marlon Anderson? What, is he funny or something?
Let’s hope so.
Ramon Castro: OPS+ 117
It deserved to be pointed out. Much of the weakness of our lineup is due to injuries and poor quality, but some of it is also due to the stubborn refusal to play a superior player.
justifiable
the only two guys that can justify their spot in the line up right now are chnieder, because he plays the toughest defensive position well, and castillo, because he plays a defensive position and his OPS is made up entirely of OBP, which is more valuable than SLG, so his OPS is unfairly hurt by that fact. that does not excuse his contract, which is just plain terrible.
its probably also worth pointing out that 100 OPS+ is league average, not replacement level. im not sure what replacement level would be by its about 70.
but anyway, yeah, these guys all suck. the bench is pathetic. maybe they should give jay gibbons a shot, since he is desperate for a job and they cant get anyone worse at this point. (half joking).
you're right, sorry
I didn’t mean to conflate OPS+ and replacement level.
Below is the VORP for each of these guys. The players are almost in the same order of suckiness as they are when measured by OPS+:
Castillo 9.3
Delgado 2.4
Schneider -1.0
Easley -1.7
Tatis -2.1
Chavez -5.7
Anderson -4.7
Wright 18.3
Beltran 22.2
Reyes 28.2
And, for good measure, Castro 2.5
So five hitters of nine last night were below replacement level.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Jun 18, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
VORP
Let’s remember that VORP is a counting stat. Thus, not only does Castro have the 5th highest VORP on the team, he has it in 39 at-bats. And yet, last night, he sat in favor of two guys below replacement level with the bat (Tatis is the other, since DWright could’ve played 3rd and Castro could’ve DHed).
Excuse me while I bang my head against my cubicle.
Vote change: DePodesta/Acta in 2009!!!
by Greenpoint Ian on Jun 18, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
define "replacement level"
Does it mean a level where a call-up would be available from a decent farm system?
A level that should be available for a decent price on the free agent market?
Where are these “replacements” coming from?
Aren’t Tatis and Anderson by definition replacement level? If not, then they are truly horrible signings. What about Nixon?
Furthermore, Jay Gibbons is willing to work for the minimum. There is a spot available on the 40 man roster. This team is sorely lacking in corner outfielders. Not signing him is either sheer negligence on the part of the GM or evidence of collusion.
replacement level is tough to pinpoint
because your baseline is always adjusting to take into account how your ‘replacement level players’ are preforming and who to add or remove from that list. i think the general idea to to average the performance of a player any team can readily find to play in the majors from whatever source they can get them, minors, FAs, guys in trades for PsTBNL. so yeah, tatis, anderson etc are ‘replacement players’, and they are preforming WORSE than your typical replacement player. in short, they are garbage. i believe gay jibbons was also preforming below replacement level, which is why he was cut.
replacement level
Replacement level is the expected level of performance the average team can obtain if it needs to replace a starting player at minimal cost. Individual replacements can perform above or below the expected level, but that does not change what the expectation was at the time of the decision.
From Introduction to VORP: Value Over Replacement Player, by Keith Woolner.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Jun 18, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks guys
That explained a lot.
We define a replacement level player as one who hits as far below the league positional average as the league backups do relative to league average, who plays average defense for the position, and is a breakeven base-stealer and baserunner....
Replacement-level delta is set at 70 points of OPS below league positional average (based on previous unpublished studies). The same delta is used for all positions (this is a possible area for future research).
...
So what level of performance does a VORP=0 team represent? Well, using the 1998 season MLB statistics to date, a all-replacement-level team would hit about .235/.300/.356 and have a RA of 5.85. The Pythagorean projection over 162 games would be 44-118, for a .271 winning percentage. This is comparable to the performance of the worst teams in history (e.g. ‘62 Mets who went 40-120 for a .250 Win%).
That last part does not bode well for these geezers.
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