Amazin' Avenue: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: RSL Soapbox for Real Salt Lake Fans!

BP is bullish about the Mets chances. Lets hope they're right.

Also, Go Rays!

about 1 year ago Ian_face_tiny Greenpoint Ian 2 comments 0 recs  | 

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

yeah i noticed that

anyone know why the mets have a higher propability of making the playoffs than the phillies? its not because of run differential, cause the phillies are leading us in the category. just based on performance projections?

by kendynamo on Jul 17, 2008 10:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Third order winning percentage

Check out the W3 and L3 columns. Third order wins and losses use BP’s equivalence runs scored and runs allowed, which is basically the expected run differential given the components of the team’s offense and pitching (think: the runs an average team would score given the Mets’ AVG/OBP/SLG, only more complicated). It also weights team performance relative to strength of schedule/lineups/pitchers faced.

The distilled version: what the team *should* have done overall given what their individual players have done. It doesn’t change history, of course, but it attempts to account for the differences between how good a team has been regardless of their true record. This is often a better predictor of what will happen moving forward than simply projecting what has already happened to this point.

by Eric Simon on Jul 17, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Start posting about the Mets »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Axolotl_small
Jose Valentin
Axolotl_small
Castillo for Snyder?
Small
AAOP - It's Late, But Still Good
Small
AAOP: A new outlook...
Me_go_mets_small
AAOP: Just get Pujols
Small
AAOP: Supplementing the Core
Small
AAOP
The_buddha_by_lord_karsus_small
Grissionometer
Misc_007_small
Madoff, Backman, and an Old Baseball Jacket
Images-1_small
AAOP. The Way to fix the mets roster without causing to much damage to their minors system (batting)

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

Marty Noble: Glavine Claims Young Mets Weren't Offended By Losing
WAR analysis of AAOPs

Recent FanShots

No Matt Holliday or Jason Bay apparently means Adrian Gonzalez
Wallace Matthews says Mets should look to 2011
This idea looks familar
LoDuca seeking work
AFL: Havens continues to rake
Nick Evans catching in the bullpen plus a little bit of BP. I think I am a bit generous about his...
Marty Noble has no idea what Sabermetrics are.
Kottaras Waived, Claimed
Is it really that tough to play in New York?
Scott Moviel AFL video

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Sponsors


THE BIG GUY

Aa_avatar_small Eric Simon

THE INCREDIBLES

Blackfish2_small Alex Nelson

Cj_small Sam Page

Best_infield_ever_small James Kannengieser

THE NEWS GURU

Wrightfront_small Joe Budd

THE POET LAUREATE

Hamheadshot__1__small Howard Megdal