Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds
BP is bullish about the Mets chances. Lets hope they're right.
Also, Go Rays!
over 3 years ago
Greenpoint Ian
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yeah i noticed that
anyone know why the mets have a higher propability of making the playoffs than the phillies? its not because of run differential, cause the phillies are leading us in the category. just based on performance projections?
Third order winning percentage
Check out the W3 and L3 columns. Third order wins and losses use BP’s equivalence runs scored and runs allowed, which is basically the expected run differential given the components of the team’s offense and pitching (think: the runs an average team would score given the Mets’ AVG/OBP/SLG, only more complicated). It also weights team performance relative to strength of schedule/lineups/pitchers faced.
The distilled version: what the team *should* have done overall given what their individual players have done. It doesn’t change history, of course, but it attempts to account for the differences between how good a team has been regardless of their true record. This is often a better predictor of what will happen moving forward than simply projecting what has already happened to this point.


























