Go Big Pelf!

I was all set to write a post trying to see if Mike Pelfrey was for real.  I got my pitch f/x data set ready, some splits, some advanced pitching metrics and some Asahi Karakuchi.  When I went to go do some more research I found not one but two great articles (and one alright one) that were written on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Today, doing what I set out to do.  I've put the links below and really suggest reading at least the first two.  The reason I still made this a post is because I think I can add some more analysis that hasn't been touched on with these articles and I'm going to assume that any reading my post has read at least the Pitch f/x analysis and not repeat the articles.

Pelfrey Pitch f/x Analysis

Some more analysis

 Alright Analysis

The Pitch f/x analysis article states that Pelfrey may have given up some movement for increased speed on his fastball as the data shows.  However, what the author didn't realize is that Mike has been throwing four-seamers this year as well as the two seamers.  Since pitch f/x cannot differentiate between the two fastballs David (author) did not realize this.  He later rectifies this in the comment section after being pointed out the latter fact by a commentator.  He provides this chart to prove the Pelfrey is throwing more four-seamers.

“Bad Pelfrey” (April/May)
95+ MPH: 32/771 fastballs (4.15%)

“Good Pelfrey” (June/July)
95+ MPH: 184/725 fastballs (25.38%)

I believe that this is the single biggest factor to Pelfrey's turn around.  We all knew he could throw gasolina with his college scouting report saying he could hit 97 regularly.  We also knew that Mike had a great moving sinker/two-seamer; however, some fans didn't know that these are two completely different pitches.  There is basically no pitcher who can throw a two-seamer over 95, its almost physical impossible.  Which is why I was always so curious as to why for the past two years Pelfrey seemed to ditch the four-seamer?  If his problem was only having one pitch, why couldn't he throw his other fastball?  (More on that in a bit)

Another statement that David writes is that Pelfrey is actually throwing more fastballs, well he is, but, again, he's throwing two different fastballs, so while his data might make it seem like Pelfrey is becoming more of a one pitch pitcher, he's actually evolving into a more well rounded pitcher. 

Some think that the firing of Rick Peterson has greatly helped Pelfrey since Peterson was probably the one that told Pelfrey not to throw the four-seamer.  This is not completely true. 

As the third article points out, Pelfrey's May month was strange for him as he gave up more fly balls than groundouts.  The author doesn't answer why though.  The answer is in this game on May 10, Mike suddenly threw way more four seamers than he ever had, which led to an increase in fly outs.  That trend continued throughout May and on May 21, he threw nearly all four-seamers.  From May 31 to June 11, Pelfrey had three good starts and his groundball to ply ration was nearly 1-1, which would indicate that he started mixing his fastballs in evenly, gameday supports that.  After a terrible game against the Angels, Rick Peterson was fired and Pelfrey turned into the pitcher we always wanted him to be.

Phew, that's a lot of information, so let me break what I think the latter paragraph means.  I think Rick Peterson envisioned Pelfrey as a Tim Hudson type and wanted him to get ground ball after ground ball, but Pelfrey doesn't have the secondary pitches Hudson has, so hitters can easily guess two-seamer plus Pelfrey has control problems with the two-seamer, any Mets fan know that seeing two-seamer after two-seamer being way inside to rights and outside to lefties.  I think Peterson wanted Pelfrey to concentrate on hitting his spots and figured that throwing one fastball type would help him concentrate.

I think it became apparent after April that Pelfrey needed to change something, thus, Pelfrey started throwing the four seamer almost exclusively, which while effective for a couple of starts, was disastrous once the scouts caught on to the fact.  However, now Pelfrey was ready to start mixing his fastballs together, however, he was throwing both of them low in the zone.  That is until Peterson was fired.  From then on to the present Pelfrey started throwing more four-seamers up in the zone with the sinker low, if that's due to Warthan or not I cannot say.

This actually proved to be more of a recap that of analysis like I wanted and I'm not really happy about that.  Let me just touch on one last point.  The second article and the third one point to the fact that Pelfrey has been eating up bad offenses while struggling against good ones, like this is a bad thing.  I would think that every pitcher, save Oliver Perez, pitches better against bad offenes, that's why they are bad offenses.  The fact of the matter is that Pelfrey has a below 4 ERA (a flawed stat I know) so I don't buy the fact that he's beating up on lesser teams and that's the main reason for improvement.  He didn't do that last year.

To conclude, again, I believe that it's the two fastballs that make all the difference, Pelfrey the past month is learning how to work with them to not only keep his previous groundball ratio but has also increased strikeouts.  The second look has really messed with batters as those sinkers in on righties and away from lefties that they used to lay off are now swinging strikes.  Due I think this streak of greatness will continue?  No, but I do think that Pelfrey can be expected to be an above average third starter, (4.57 ERA for the average third starter in 2007) which would be a huge step forward, and possibly more.

What do you guys expect Pelfrey season line to be?