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First Place Beaches

I'm not really the type to say things like "a month ago the Mets would have never come back to win this game", but, frankly, a month ago the Mets would have never come back to win this game. Three guys made this game: Wright, Tatis and Delgado. They drove in all ten runs and went 8-for-13 with three homeruns, a double and a couple of walks. Johan Santana didn't have it tonight and was yanked after just four innings. The bullpen wasn't great, but they were good enough to keep the game close, and when the game is close and the ballpark is pint-sized anything can happen and usually does. That's especially true when you're on a big winning streak and things just find a way to go right for you.

The WPA was fascinating for this game. For starters, check out the rollercoaster graph; I think I puked at turn three. As a refresher, each team starts with a win probability of 50%. This isn't exactly accurate since home teams tend to win more games than road teams, but for the sake of simplicity all games start at 50/50. That means the game is essentially a battle for the other team's 50%. Once a team hits 100% win probability the game is over and that team has won.

Mets' pitchers contributed -60% WPA, which means they blew all of the Mets' starting pot of 50% and then some. That's not a good thing. When your pitching staff digs you into a hole like that you don't usually climb out of it. It's not possible for a team to lose more than 50% of WPA in a game, so when the pitchers lose 60% the hitters have to make up the difference, and in most cases it would be a +10% to the hitters to make an even -50% and a big fat loss. Not tonight, because the Mets' had their hitting shoes on and contributed a mind-boggling +110% WPA, which is enough to win two games and have a little left over for the third. Wow, we all say, but it gets even better. The aforementioned Delgado, Wright and Tatis combined to contribute +125.4% WPA, which means the rest of the offense contributed approximately -15.4%. Throw those three guys out and the rest of the Mets were at -75.4% WPA; keep 'em in the game and it's a Mets victory.

First place, people. How does it taste?

Big winners: David Wright, +42.8% WPA, Fernando Tatis, +42.3% WPA, Carlos Delgado, +40.3% WPA
Big losers: Scott Schoeneweis, -44.6% WPA, Johan Santana, -36.1% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Nine-game winning streak not enough for Wright, +35.1%
Teh sux0rest play: Show blows, -46.4% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -60.0%
Total batter WPA: +110.0%


Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by itsmetsforme; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Name # of Posts
itsmetsforme 48
pingel 40
JoshNY 28
future 19
Endys Game 16
LOUtheMETfan 14
kingcritical 12
sireric 5
DoctorK16 5
JohnPeterson 5
dissento 1
MetsfaninVA 1

0 recs | Comment 20 comments

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How does it taste?

This game was a shit sandwich and I loved every bite of it.

by Sokojoe on Jul 18, 2008 3:04 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

a month ago the Mets would have never come back to win this game

Yup, and I forgot that this is not the Mets team of April-June, and thus shut the game off in disgust after the bullpen gave the lead back. I’ve got to remember that this team is now playing in super-2006 mode and can win pretty much anything.

This win makes taking 3 of 4 (which is what I want from the trip to Cincy) that much more attainable.

Also, I love the graphic. The Reds are entering a world of pain.

Vote change: DePodesta/Acta in 2009!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 18, 2008 9:06 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i prefer to ask the losing side how it tastes

as in, ‘how does it taste, reds? does it taste like poop and pee in your mouth?’ and fun and really juvenile.

by kendynamo on Jul 18, 2008 10:00 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A month ago I would have shut this game off when Heilman came in

And looking back I probably should have. (Admittedly I was packing and not paying too much attention anyway) But even though he was responsible for the three runs I find it hard to blame him. Unless it is a super obvious situation I think intentionally walking a batter, especially when he represents the go ahead run is a bad move. I know Votto is a lefty and having a good year, but he doesn’t hit RHP’s that well. I’m not saying you give him anything good to hit, but at least try to get him out.

Heilman doesn’t seem to recover from trouble all that well. Asking him to come back from an IBB seems like you’re asking for trouble.
Either way the Reds were out of their element.

by Reg Dunlop on Jul 18, 2008 10:12 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It tastes like chicken

And I do like chicken.

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Jul 18, 2008 11:26 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd watch the game tonight but

I DON’T ROLL ON SHABBOS!

The butcher and the baker and the people on the street, where did they go? To meet the Mets!

by Rod Gaspar Fan Club on Jul 18, 2008 3:51 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tatis

Once again, a hero. Hmmm. Who’s missing. FIRST PLACE BEACHES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The 2008 NY Mets: Reyes singles. Castillo infield single. Wright walks. Beltran lines out. ZaBlanc bitches. Delgado strikes out. Reyes picked off third. Fans boo. Padres win 2-1.

by ZaBlanc on Jul 18, 2008 3:51 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah

You’ve got to go all the way back to ONE WHOLE GAME BEFORE THIS ONE to find a major contribution by Beltran. That’s just unacceptable.

by JoshNY on Jul 18, 2008 4:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And

His single following Wright’s homerun in the ninth set the table for the go-ahead runs.

by Eric Simon on Jul 18, 2008 5:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah right.

The single was nice…but Wright took the pressure off there for him. Go read my apology I’m about to post.

The 2008 NY Mets: Reyes singles. Castillo infield single. Wright walks. Beltran lines out. ZaBlanc bitches. Delgado strikes out. Reyes picked off third. Fans boo. Padres win 2-1.

by ZaBlanc on Jul 18, 2008 6:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What?

You mean the 7-0 shutout of the Rockies? Real clutch. Yeah.

The 2008 NY Mets: Reyes singles. Castillo infield single. Wright walks. Beltran lines out. ZaBlanc bitches. Delgado strikes out. Reyes picked off third. Fans boo. Padres win 2-1.

by ZaBlanc on Jul 18, 2008 6:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It was 0-0 when Beltran went yard, not 7-0

But somehow he knew the game was going to be 7-0 when he hit that HR. Yeah.

by JoshNY on Jul 18, 2008 9:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Big Lebowski

Dude…

(One of my all time favorites!)

Well gang, I need to get my butt out of the apartment and have a drink. Unfortunately the bar I’ll be frequenting this evening is most likely one of Boston’s satellite bars. I’m here in Alexandria, Va and this bar I go to his heavy and I mean HEAVY on Red Sox Nation. It’s a great bar (w/the exception of being Red Sox fans). I go there for the good drinks, good pizza and baseball games and normally just keep my mouth shut.

Something Papelbon should have done

Good luck METS and METS fans. Was I the only one to post a vote for winning all four games of the series?

"DUDE..."

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jul 18, 2008 5:56 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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