Sweep or be swept?

I know there are still two games left against St. Louis and given the Mets performance so far we shouldn’t be looking at anything more than the next game. However, the four game series against the first place Phillies can make or break this season. The 2008 Mets have been the poster children for mediocrity and yet they remain in contention due largely to the mediocrity of their division. Recent history can teach us about the danger of this situation

 In 2004 the Mets went into Philly for  a 4 games series July 5-8. (Games 81-84) The Mets were 41-39 and sat just two games behind the first place Phillies. They had confidence and momentum having just swept the Yankees. Like 2008, the 2004 NL East was a bastion of mediocrity with four teams hovering around .500 and all within striking distance of first place.

So how do the 2008 Mets compare to the 2004 Mets through 81 games? The line on the 04 Mets was .250/.322/.414. The 08 Mets sit at .256/.331/.394. The 04 Mets had a higher OPS, more doubles and more homeruns. The 04 Mets pitching staff had an ERA of  3.74 with 345 RA and 70 HR. In 08 the Mets staff has an ERA 4.15 with 379 RA and 81 HR.  Run differential for the 04 Mets was +14 compared to -1 for the 08 Mets. The 04 Mets also had a desperate GM (Jim Duquette) trying to prove he should keep his job.

 The result of the series against the Phils was a split. The Mets remained two games over and two games out. The Phillies and Braves would soon pull away and the Mets would finish the month 49-54; 8 games back. But the damage had been done. By staying in the midst of a mediocre pennant race with a mediocre team the 04 Mets over estimated their true potential. The resulting enthusiasm led to the deadline trades of Kris Benson for Jose Bautista and Ty Wiggington and more tragically Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir.

The danger of staying in a pennant race with a mediocre team is the tendency to make questionable “win now” moves at the expense of long term planning. This tendency has been a hallmark of the Wilpon era and there is no reason to expect a change now. With the high (but probably unrealistic) expectations coming into the season, the money already committed to payroll, and Omar Minaya sitting on the hot seat, there is reason to be concerned that the lessons of 2004 will be lost on Mets management in 2008.
 
A lot differs between 2004 and 2008. Parity and revenue sharing will make fewer teams sellers this year driving up the asking price for big time players. These Mets don’t have the high end or Major League ready prospects to be major players in that type of market. And the 2008 Mets have much more high-end talent then the Piazza, Cameron, and Floyd Mets of 2004. However, like in 2004, the 2008 Mets are desperate to exorcise the demons of failure the previous year and these Mets don’t have the depth to truly be considered an elite team.

Given this history the question becomes, “What truly is the best result for this weekends series?” Clearly a sweep is most desired. It would finally move the Mets back over .500, may move them into first place, and hopefully give them the momentum to go on an extended hot streak. But if they don’t, getting swept might be the best alternative. It would confirm that the Mets have .500 caliber talent, may drop them out of contention, and hopefully force management to shift to long term planning. A split would only continue the season long frustration of watching mediocre play, it wouldn’t answer any questions about the true potential of the team, and it would keep the Mets close enough that a “big move” (F. Martinez for Dunn or Griffey? Carp or Evans for Paul Byrd?) could be justified.

This is the situation that is most worrisome. While it may be too early to give up on the season, the 2008 Mets have not proven that they are worth mortgaging what little future the team has. It would be foolish for the organization to go “all-in” with this group. And making moves out of desperation rarely produces positive long-term results. Hopefully, management will learn from the mistakes of 2004.