Eye-Catching Title or NMPIGWC or Josh Thole

Why the need for an eye-catching title, well because Josh Thole's play hasn't seemed to garner him any attention.

I was going to write about the Mets catching situation, or Castro vs. Schneider; however Reg Dunlop with help from Josh NY did a nice job of summing up the situation over on the comments section of the last post game recap.  Also, the reason I write posts on this part of the interweb is because I believe this community doesn't need a post to tell them how awesome Blastro is.

However, something indirectly catcher-related caught my eye over at MetsGeek.  The user "Mets Prospectus" wrote a journal with his or her Top 25 Mid-Season Mets Prospects.  I was curious where Josh Thole would be and to my surprise, disappointment really, he wasn't there.  Cesar Puello with his .525 OPS was there, but no love for Thole.  Now, this post isn't about questioning a fellow Mets fan prospect list, everyone has their own opinions and methodologies, it's about Thole.

Every year I single out one prospect and track them daily, well to be honest I track all prospects daily, but I favor one guy who I'm really curious to see what they're going to do in the upcoming season.  This year it was Nick Evans, the year before it would have been Jesus Flores but, after being picked in the Rule V draft, Mike Carp slipped in, in 2006 it as Grant Psomas, 2005 Aaron Baldiris.  So, what do these players have in common?  Well, this exercise for me started with David Wright's 2003.  In 2003, a 20 year old Wright had an .828 OPS playing in St Lucie with a well rounded skillset.  While most would look at the .828 OPS and think good, especially for a 20 year old, but not great, St. Lucie is very much a pitchers park according to park factors.  Thus, Wright's season meant that he was a very good prospect; however, I've heard that the biggest jump for a player is the A+ to AA one, which can make or break prospects.  Therefore, I was curious how Wright would do upon promotion, *spoiler alert*, it went well.

Which brings me back to my own question, what do the above mentioned players have in common?  They all hit well in St Lucie, but because of the environment, maybe aren't given enough credit by most fans.  Now, I didn't expect any of these guys to be the next Wright but, as a Mets fan, finding prospects worth checking up on is pretty tough.  Now a very short recap how these guys performed ASL (after St. Lucie,) Baldiris upon reflection wasn't that good being 21 and putting up .781 OPS but I heard he was going to be converted into a 2nd basemen and was desperately hoping he would put it together.  Grant Psomas was traded as part of the Delgado trade and was rushed by Florida sticking him in AAA where he performed well (.776) but still had no business there,  I'll skip Jesus Flores, Carp was injured last year but is doing well this year, and lastly, Nick Evans.

Finally, this brings me to Josh Thole.  Barring a collapse by Thole, it appears he is in line for my coveted "non-major prospect I'm going to watch closely in 2009" or NMPIGWC (pronounced Nim-Pig-Wic.)

I really didn't consider Thole a prospect after 2007.  He had a triple slash line of .267/.372/.311 catching 11 games and playing first in 103.  His 61 to 57 BB to K was pretty impressive but 17 extra base hits (all doubles) in 389 ABs for a 1st baseman, not so much. 

Well two things changed and one thing stayed the same for Thole this year.  First, Thole is a full time catcher this season with slightly below average defense (not bad considering his lack of experience.)  Second, he is hitting the ball with more authority as shown by 22 XBH so far in 236 ABs.  That's an increase in his ISO to .126, up from .044 last year.  This really is incredible considering the aforementioned nature of Tradition field and environment as a whole.  What makes the two changes even better is the fact that his walk rate has basically stayed the same with 33 to 26 BBs to Ks.  While his BB% has decreased to 11.2% from 13.6%, his K% has gone from 14.7% to 10.1% meaning that his BB/K has increased to 1.24 from 1.07.  Overall, Thole has an OPS of an even .800 and what's better is all of this came after a mediocre April in which he had a .709 OPS (his monthly OPS since have been .855, .821, and .841.)

Based on the Translations from baseballprospectus.com, Thole has an EqA of .257.  Which might not seem like much but when the average catcher “hits” .249, suddenly it looks damn good.  And just to compare, Jesus Flores had an EqA at the same age (21) at St Lucie of .250.  Thole's translated EQA currently would place him above catchers such as AJ Pierzynski, Kurt Suzuki, Jarrod Saltamacchia, and, obviously, one Mr. Schneider.

Thole is in no way close to being major league ready and his ceiling could turn out to be a Jason Kendall-ish type player sans speed.  I don't think he's going to be a star or even a starter, but I think he could be a league average backup, which is harder to find than the Mets make it look (seriously, between Castro, Wilson, and Pratt we Mets fans have been absolutely spoiled by our backup catchers.) 

I don't think Thole cracks the Mets top 10 prospects based on his low ceiling but seriously why is no one and I mean no one talking about this guy?  Is there something I'm missing about him?  I'm I overrating the whole .257 EqA thing? Am I ending this post with too many questions?  Probably, but back to Thole.  Thole first has to finish out this season playing as well as he has been, but I'm really rooting for this guy to be my next NMPIGWC.

Edit:  After I wrote this Thole went 2 for 4 with a double, no BB, no K.  OPS now stands at .809.