Corner Turned?

by Eric Simon on Jul 25, 2008 8:00 AM EDT

So I'm poring over Oliver Perez's game logs trying to figure out if he's really turned a corner of late. Perusing boxscores obviously doesn't tell you the whole story, I know. Has he looked better? I guess. The results have been better, so when someone says "he's looked better" I think they really mean that he's just pitching better, which really just means that the results have improved. I have no idea if he *really* looks better. He seems more confident out there, but that may just be the residue of better results. I have zero scouting background, so I'm hardly qualified to say whether he has actually changed things mechanically. Gary Cohen has indicated that new-ish pitching coach Dan Warthen has tinkered with Perez since taking over for Rick Peterson, and this article specifically says that Perez made a "significant mechanical change" after Warthen entered the fray.

Perez dominated the ~~first-place~~ second-place Phillies on Thursday, striking out twelve and walking just one (Pat Burrell, intentionally) in 7.2 innings. He allowed six hits and one run and hit a batter and left with the bases loaded and two outs in the top of the eighth. Aaron Heilman cleaned up Perez's mess by getting Jayson Werth to fly out to center. Carlos Delgado drove home the go-ahead and insurance runs with a double in the bottom of the inning and Billy Wagner closed things out with his second straight strikeout-less save.

This was probably Ollie's best start of the year; the 74 game score was his second-best this season, trailing only the 75 he notched against the Yankees at Shea a few weeks ago. His current stretch -- five straight games of 53 or higher game scores -- matches a career high he set in 2004 with the Pirates and equalled in 2007 with the Mets. The current streak might actually be the best of the three. Here's what he's done over that span:

IP: 33.2
R: 5
ER: 4
H: 21
K: 39
BB: 12
ERA: 1.34

The WHIP is under 1, which is ridiculous for Perez. He has walked just over one batter every three innings, which is terrific when you consider that he has walked almost five batters every nine innings for his career. I wanted to see if his control had actually gotten any better, and the results are pretty encouraging. Over his first 16 starts, Perez threw 886 of his 1,492 pitches for strikes, a 59.4% strike rate. In his last five starts, he has thrown 333 of his 530 pitches for strikes, or a 62.8% strike rate. That may not seem like much, but it's an improvement of 5.7%, which is actually pretty substantial.

It's hard to get terribly excited, perhaps because Perez has already had two similar winning streaks earlier in his career and still ended up spiraling into despair on many subsequent occasions. Nevertheless, *some* hope is a helluva lot more than we had a few weeks ago, so I'm happy to take the good feelings and move forward, looking forward to continued encouraging starts.

I'll also throw this out there: maybe Scottie Boras pulled Perez aside a few weeks ago and reminded him that he's in a contract year and is in a position to make a boatload of money this offseason if he can just get his act together. Before the season started, Perez was coming off a solid year and had won his arbitration case against the Mets. At the time, I figured he'd be in line for a five-year, $75 million deal at least. A couple of months into this year and he was probably looking at a one-year, make-good deal at around $12 million. Now he's back on course for a giant payday and he may be pitching his way out of the Mets' plans. Not that they couldn't afford him, just that they'd be wise to steer clear of his erratic services at huge dollars. The Mets will have some money coming off the books and some more Citi money coming into the coffers so there'll be plenty of cash to throw around next winter, though other names like Sheets, Sabathia and Burnett will be out there and may be more attractive than Perez (Burnett maybe not, since he's kind of a right-handed Perez with a far sketchier injury history).

As my mom says, we'll just have to play this one by ear. Whatever happens after the season, Perez is showing plenty of encouraging signs, and even if he falls apart at some point, he's helping the Mets right now. The first-place Mets, that is.

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when he's pitching well, I love this kid

Great quote:

"When I face them, I act like they’re the best team in the league," Pérez said of his success against Philadelphia. "When I take the ball, I act like I’m the best pitcher in the league."

Also of note:

In four starts against the Phillies, Pérez has allowed one run in 26 innings — a 0.35 earned run average — while striking out 27 and surrendering only three extra-base hits. The 12 strikeouts Thursday were his highest total since Sept. 9, 2004, when he pitched for Pittsburgh. It was the first time in 20 career double-digit strikeout games in which he did not issue an unintentional walk.

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Jul 25, 2008 8:08 AM EDT reply actions

Ollie is the "Anti-A-Rod"

At least that’s the opinion of one of my Yankee fan friends. He seems to to think Oliver Perez pitches his best in “big games”. He has had some of his best outings against the Phils and Yankees. If this has something to do with focus or intensity I just hope he can do the same against the Nats and Astros. et. al.

by Reg Dunlop on Jul 25, 2008 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree

To me, the major reason why the Mets have been playing such good ball of late (besides Delgado, of course) is that the starting rotation has been great. Perez and Pelfrey have been lights out, and it gives the Mets a very solid 1-2-3 (and perhaps 4 if John Maine can get his act together).

Get yourself a great 1-4 rotation, and you can go far even without much offense. Look at the thoroughly mediocre lineup the 2005 White Sox had for more on that. Also, despite things like what happened on Tuesday, the bullpen has been a strength, and I expect it to continue to be one.

Vote change: DePodesta/Acta in 2009!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 25, 2008 9:29 AM EDT reply actions

Don't be so sure he's a goner.

Sure, Perez will get a big contract if he pitches well the rest of the way, but I’m not so sure the Mets won’t be one of the bidders. Pedro’s contract is up, and he may retire; if he doesn’t, I really can’t see him coming back to Shea unless he’s willing to take a 1-year deal for a lot less money. Meaning there may be 2 holes in the rotation and no one in the system ready to step in.

by madisonmetsfan on Jul 25, 2008 9:41 AM EDT reply actions

I look forward to his starts.

He reminds of Sid Fernandez in a way. You know at any moment he could completely come off the rails and fall apart, but there’s something immensely entertaining about how he can baffles hitters at times.

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Jul 25, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions

Pitchf/x data

I did a very quick glance at some Pitchf/x data to see if there is anything different and it seems like Ollie has found a more consistent release point. Since the middle of June his vertical release point has generally been around 5.5 feet and his horizontal release point has been a little over 2 feet. Prior to that his release point would vary almost every start.

The new release point doesn’t always guarantee success, but it seems like a start. I’m going to try to look over some more data when a have a bit more time.

by Reg Dunlop on Jul 25, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

Warthen vs. Peterson

Now Im not a scout but the difference seems to be pretty glaring in the approach that each Coach had Ollie follow. (alll that Im going to say is just my uninformed opinion)

Under Peterson the Mets were very mechanical. Some guys loved this about Peterson. Rick had everyone programmed so that they threw down in the zone with a two seemer and a slider. Peterson made sure they had the exact same mechanics and the exact same pitching thoughts that Rick himself would have. Guys were not allowed to go outside the controlled norm. This seems to have worked for Maine. JMaine seems to be a guy that needed the very analytical side of pitching. Glavine would be another one of the guys that I say benefited from Petersons approach…

Then theres the approach of Warthen. Warthen has gone and seen what was successful for the pitchers on this staff. He has worked with them on a case by case basis. Warthen has tried to find what works best for each pitcher whereas, Peterson only wanted you to throw in his regimented schedule. In the case of Ollie, Warthen has gotten Ollie to a better point or release more consistantly than Peterson ever did. Peterson tried with arm angles and spine alignment. However, that just didnt work for someone who’s not very fundamentally sound. What Warthen did was simply get Ollie into a very athletic position before Ollie delivers a pitch. You can notice it now with Ollie slight moment of pause at the top of his wind up. This slight hitch has caused Ollie to consistantly release a pitch from the same angle more so than anything previously. Now you also notice that Ollie is not falling off to the third base side of the rubber as much and hes walking fewer batters.

To me the biggest thing for Ollie was having Warthen tell him not to worry about arm slot or spine angles but to simply just get in a much better throwing position… Same can be said for Pelf. No more does he have to dial it down and throw only four seemers and sliders. Now Warthen allows him to simply use his power sinker and his mid 90’s heat to do what was/is effective for him. I think the same can be said for Heil’s (even though he was pitching better before the release of Peterson).

by tbach81 on Jul 25, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions