The "Untouchables"?

by Reg Dunlop on Jul 31, 2008 1:08 PM EDT

Up to this point I have been an advocate of holding on to top prospects in the organization. My belief is based on the fact that I don’t think this team is good enough to justify clearing out more of the system for short term help and nobody that has been mentioned as a return is that big of an upgrade.

And while my overall opinion has not changed, after a little research, my enthusiasm for some of the players deemed “too valuable” to trade has been dampened. I haven’t soured on Fernando Martinez. His injuries this year aside, he is only 19 and has a huge upside. But the other top Mets hitting prospects are more troubling.

Dan Murphy is putting up good numbers, but his fielding is pretty bad. David Wright also blocks him at his natural position. The attempts to move him to 2B are suspect at best. Mike Carp is having a very good year in his second year at Double A. His BA and OBP are well above where his numbers have been in the past. His power numbers have been pretty consistent which is promising, but some red flags go up here. Nick Evans has struggled in limited work in the majors. He is clearly a work in progress, but he doesn’t seem to have the natural power to justify a corner outfield or 1B spot.

Of greater concern to me is the pitching. As much hype as Niese, Parnell, and Kunz have received going into the deadline, their peripherals are cause for concern. In his minor league career Kunz has a K/9 of 7.6, and K/BB of 1.6, and a 1.31 WHIP. It’s a small sample, but his numbers at Oregon State reflect this type of performance. Parnell’s K/9 is 7.9, his K/BB is 1.98, and his WHIP is 1.39. Niese has the most promising numbers with an 8.36 K/9, a 2.56 K/BB, and a 1.36 WHIP.

None of these numbers are awful but since they don’t dominate in the minors it’s hard to envision them being anything more the middle of the pack major leaguers. When you compare them to the more highly touted, “can’t miss” guys in recent years their performances just don’t stack up. Guys like Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Kershaw, Buchholz, and Volquez all had K/9 rate over 9 and K/BB ratios over 3 (except Volquez) to go along with a more dominating WHIP.

I’m not arguing that it is worth trading these guys for the limited services of a Raul Ibanez or Brian Fuentes. But based on what I see, especially from the pitchers, these guys should be far from “untouchable”.

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Comments

Untouchable for:

The bottom line is that I agree with your, uh, bottom line here. No player should be untouchable if the right deal presents itself, but trading one or two of our top prospects for a mediocre fill-in like Ibanez or Guillen is stupid and, yes, I would consider our guys untouchable in that kind of deal.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jul 31, 2008 1:24 PM EDT reply actions

If the right deal does comes up, and you get a legit player for a couple years, then trade away…Jon Niese could be like Scott Kazmir, so this time around, no shit.

by Johan4CY on Jul 31, 2008 3:29 PM EDT reply actions

I think

that we’re all forgetting what the point of the minors is: To get guys ready to play for the Big League. Im talking about your points about Niese, Kunz and Parnell. It seems to me that all three of those pitchers have steadily improved (albeit in different facets of the game) while they have worked their ways up the company ladder. Same thing with Murphy and Carp. As they have been promoted they seem to have gotten better. Even a case can be made for Carp.

So when we look at the possibility of a trade happening, I only ask that Omar look at the improvements of these guys versus what they could give the New York Mets were they on the big league squad. Then Id ask him to compare that versus what a Fuentes or Ibanez would provide us. For me the difference between what the trade acquisitions would bring us versus our in house alternatives means our prospects should be untouchable (in the sense that I wouldnt trade them to anyone for a marginal upgrade). And thats what I think Omar means. Not that any of our prospects will never be traded…

Of course if a marquee player was available, then he’d be more than willing to talk about the FMarts and Niese’s of the organization.

by tbach81 on Aug 1, 2008 10:27 AM EDT reply actions