I’d be a little concerned if I were the Phillies. He’s still only 28 and his body of work before this year is stunning, and I think he’ll settle in somewhere above his current .224 batting average. I don’t think he’s a good enough hitter to go .300 every year, but .260-.280 probably isn’t out of the question. My biggest concern about him is the drop in walks this season. In fact, overall, if you disregard all of the intentional walks he’s accumulated over the last few seasons he really just has solid plate discipline, not great plate discipline as his overall walk numbers might otherwise indicate.

The other problem with Howard is that he’s got a terrible body type and is already a lousy fielder and baserunner at the least demanding defensive (while most critical offensive) position on the field. He’s only going to become a worse fielder and baserunner as he gets older, and that’s going to put even more emphasis on his bat.

We know he strikes out a lot, but strikeouts aren’t really so much worse than any other kind of out (and considering Howard’s speed they’re considerably better than double-plays), but if he’s going to hit .230 and only walk once every 10 plate appearances or so, all of his value is tied up in his power. That’s fine, but his power is down considerably from last year, and this year he has been considerably less valuable than Adam Dunn, who is also 28 and will be a free agent at the end of the year.

Sean Casey was only marginally useful the last two seasons with Detroit, and really profiles more as a bench player now, even at age 33. He was never a big homerun guy, but he used to hit enough to justify playing him at first. Now he has virtually no power, and his on-base and fielding skills aren’t enough to justify a full-time job at first.