FanPost

Fun with PrOPS

When reading statistical articles, I tend to skip the parts with the actual work and go straight for the conclusion.  So, that's how I'm going to write this post.

"So in conclusion. Yes, yes I know it's a funny way to start a review, but as far as I'm concerned there's no argument."

The Mets have been getting unlucky (Not counting the pitchers OPS) to a tune of about .050 total OPS.  Thus, the Mets are scoring .6883 runs less per game than would be expected from their batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks totals.  This means that the Mets offense should be a remarkable 886 total run offense as opposed to the 774 run pace they are on.  

Now comes the obligatory small print:  There are number of factors that can keep ones PrOPS higher than the player can actually produce such as (not in order of importance with some being of no importance) players speed, grit, GB%, getting your uniform dirty, park effects, shitty luck over a whole year and, of coarse, heart/wanting it more. 

So, does this mean that starting tomorrow the Mets luck will bounce back and they will start mashing the ball.  Obviously, no.  But it does mean that the Mets have the potential to be a much better offense without adding a player in the second half. 

I was going to write out how I arrived at my conclusion, but honestly, I don't feel like it right now and I'm sure no one would really want to read it.  Instead I'll go with the winning formula of ctrl(x) + ctrl (v) = A+.  Great Job! 

Anyone who's interested I've copied and pasted the important part of my work below and for those of you who have no idea what PrOPS is check out THT.

I'll probably write another post discussing some of the things I found interesting when using PrOPS.

[Link].

NAME PA PrOPS   ACTUAL OPS DIFFERENCE
Aguila   14 0.689 9.646 0.452 6.328 -0.237 -3.318
Alou  54 0.725 39.15 0.777 41.958 0.052 2.808
Anderson  113 0.659 74.467 0.506 57.178 -0.153 -17.289
Beltran  386 0.873 336.978 0.828 319.608 -0.045 -17.37
Cancel  4 0.523 2.092 0.5 2 -0.023 -0.092
Casanova  61 0.746 45.506 0.708 43.188 -0.039 -2.379
Castillo  294 0.794 233.436 0.695 204.33 -0.099 -29.106
Castro  78 0.764 59.592 0.766 59.748 0.002 0.156
Chavez  206 0.706 145.436 0.638 131.428 -0.069 -14.214
Church  231 0.885 204.435 0.882 203.742 -0.004 -0.924
Delgado  368 0.851 313.168 0.75 276 -0.1 -36.8
Easley  184 0.747 137.448 0.72 132.48 -0.027 -4.968
Evans  24 0.497 11.928 0.513 12.312 0.016 0.384
Molina  8 0.804 6.432 0.393 3.144 -0.411 -3.288
Nixon  41 0.688 28.208 0.578 23.698 -0.11 -4.51
Pagan  105 0.683 71.715 0.72 75.6 0.037 3.885
Phillips  5 0.8 4 0.4 2 -0.4 -2
Reyes  4 0.431 1.724 0 0 -0.431 -1.724
Reyes  413 0.806 332.878 0.845 348.985 0.039 16.107
Schneider  223 0.811 180.853 0.638 142.274 -0.173 -38.579
Tatis  103 0.712 73.336 0.702 72.306 -0.01 -1.03
Wright  406 0.924 375.144 0.893 362.558 -0.03 -12.18
Total 3325   0.808292   0.758155   -0.05005

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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