Fun with PrOPS

by Sokojoe on Jul 8, 2008 7:27 AM EDT Comment 5 comments

When reading statistical articles, I tend to skip the parts with the actual work and go straight for the conclusion. So, that's how I'm going to write this post.

"So in conclusion. Yes, yes I know it's a funny way to start a review, but as far as I'm concerned there's no argument."

The Mets have been getting unlucky (Not counting the pitchers OPS) to a tune of about .050 total OPS. Thus, the Mets are scoring .6883 runs less per game than would be expected from their batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks totals. This means that the Mets offense should be a remarkable 886 total run offense as opposed to the 774 run pace they are on.

Now comes the obligatory small print: There are number of factors that can keep ones PrOPS higher than the player can actually produce such as (not in order of importance with some being of no importance) players speed, grit, GB%, getting your uniform dirty, park effects, shitty luck over a whole year and, of coarse, heart/wanting it more.

So, does this mean that starting tomorrow the Mets luck will bounce back and they will start mashing the ball. Obviously, no. But it does mean that the Mets have the potential to be a much better offense without adding a player in the second half.

I was going to write out how I arrived at my conclusion, but honestly, I don't feel like it right now and I'm sure no one would really want to read it. Instead I'll go with the winning formula of ctrl(x) + ctrl (v) = A+. Great Job!

Anyone who's interested I've copied and pasted the important part of my work below and for those of you who have no idea what PrOPS is check out THT.

I'll probably write another post discussing some of the things I found interesting when using PrOPS.

[Link].

NAME	PA	PrOPS		ACTUAL OPS		DIFFERENCE
Aguila	14	0.689	9.646	0.452	6.328	-0.237	-3.318
Alou	54	0.725	39.15	0.777	41.958	0.052	2.808
Anderson	113	0.659	74.467	0.506	57.178	-0.153	-17.289
Beltran	386	0.873	336.978	0.828	319.608	-0.045	-17.37
Cancel	4	0.523	2.092	0.5	2	-0.023	-0.092
Casanova	61	0.746	45.506	0.708	43.188	-0.039	-2.379
Castillo	294	0.794	233.436	0.695	204.33	-0.099	-29.106
Castro	78	0.764	59.592	0.766	59.748	0.002	0.156
Chavez	206	0.706	145.436	0.638	131.428	-0.069	-14.214
Church	231	0.885	204.435	0.882	203.742	-0.004	-0.924
Delgado	368	0.851	313.168	0.75	276	-0.1	-36.8
Easley	184	0.747	137.448	0.72	132.48	-0.027	-4.968
Evans	24	0.497	11.928	0.513	12.312	0.016	0.384
Molina	8	0.804	6.432	0.393	3.144	-0.411	-3.288
Nixon	41	0.688	28.208	0.578	23.698	-0.11	-4.51
Pagan	105	0.683	71.715	0.72	75.6	0.037	3.885
Phillips	5	0.8	4	0.4	2	-0.4	-2
Reyes	4	0.431	1.724	0	0	-0.431	-1.724
Reyes	413	0.806	332.878	0.845	348.985	0.039	16.107
Schneider	223	0.811	180.853	0.638	142.274	-0.173	-38.579
Tatis	103	0.712	73.336	0.702	72.306	-0.01	-1.03
Wright	406	0.924	375.144	0.893	362.558	-0.03	-12.18
Total	3325		0.808292		0.758155		-0.05005

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Comments

thats good stuff

definitely looks unlucky as a team, lots of negatives in the real to projected, but most of our starters arent getting all that unlucky, wright, reyes, castillo, delgado and beltran have had the most PAs and they are all laying to a about true level.

injuries and shitty shitty bench play (which may be having some shitty luck) i think is the biggest problems, but i havent looked at prOPS yet this year so this was good. how do you recommend these things?

by kendynamo on Jul 8, 2008 6:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I’m going to write another post briefly discussing some the implications of these numbers. Could you repharse your question “how do you recommend these things?” I’m a bit unsure what you mean, you mean implications or PrOPS in general or stats in general?

by Sokojoe on Jul 8, 2008 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs