JoshNY's Bullpen Plan

by JoshNY on Aug 13, 2008 11:41 AM EDT Comment 11 comments

We are running a FanPost Swag Contest, which calls on you to submit your ideas for how best to fix the Mets' bullpen, which I'm told has been inadequate of late though that may just be anecdotal evidence. The contest runs through Friday, and here is one of the better entries so far. --Eric

I'm going to make one further assumption beyond those specified by Eric, which is that I'm free to make changes as I see fit without having to answer to asinine broadcasters and WFAN callers. This assumption is important because one of the central elements of my plan is unconventional.

That plan: use Pedro as a relief ace. I haven't been able to find a great definition for those unfamiliar with the concept, but to sum up, a relief ace is a pitcher who's used out of the bullpen in high leverage situations (close games, great hitters up, runners on base) as early as the seventh inning; it's been advocated by Bill James as the optimal role for the best pitcher out of your bullpen. Realistically, though Wagner is that guy (i.e., the best relief pitcher on the team) once he's healthy, he seems to pitch less effectively in non-save situations, so I'm going to keep him in the traditional closer role.

As for why I'd like to use Pedro in such a role, as much time as he's missed, and at his age, I don't think he's got the longevity to be a starter this season. Maybe he'll be able to do so in the future, but the Mets are in a tight race and don't have the luxury of letting Pedro work himself into shape. Lack of longevity from our starters has led to the bullpen being overworked, and Pedro is part of that problem. Instead, he's going to be part of the solution. Looking at this quantitatively: In innings 1-3, hitters are OPSing .756 against Pedro. That's pretty good. In innings 4-6, they're OPSing .998. That's pretty bad. So to conclude: use Pedro in situations that play to his strengths as they've been this year.

To fill the empty spot in the rotation, call up Jon Niese. He was very good in Binghamton, and his first three starts in AAA were strong. (19 IP, 5 BB, 14 K, 2.37 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) Let's see what he's got. Until Maine is ready, your rotation is Santana - Perez - Pelfrey - Stokes (he was good enough to get another start) - Niese. Once Maine is back, he replaces whichever of Stokes and Niese has been less effective.

Niese takes Carlos Muniz' spot on the roster. He's overmatched at this level. Until Wagner is back, the remainder of the bullpen is Heilman, Sanchez, Feliciano, Schoeneweis, Smith, Kunz. This is obviously the same collection of garbage we've had in the recent past, but hopefully with a younger rotation they get a little less work, and Pedro takes many high-pressure situations off their hands. By lightening the load in this manner (which should hopefully help the performance all around), I'm going to use Feliciano and Smith for lefty-righty matchups in the 9th inning. I'm as disappointed as the rest of you that Feliciano hasn't been effective against righties like he was last year, but he's still pretty good against lefties, and Smith is the flip side of that. Once Wagner is healthy, DFA whoever has been performing the worst.

Summing up:

Now:
Santana - Perez - Pelfrey - Stokes - Niese
Pedro (Ace) - Smith (RHCL) - Feliciano (LHCL) - Kunz - Heilman - Schoeneweis - Sanchez

Everyone healthy:
Santana - Perez - Pelfrey - Maine - Stokes/Niese
Pedro (Ace) - Wagner (CL) - five of (Smith, Feliciano, Kunz, Heilman, Schoeneweis, Sanchez)

Postscript: This plan hasn't included any players obtained from other teams, not because I wouldn't pursue such angles, but simply because I'm not really sure what's out there. If I could pick up a reliever from a team that's out of contention without giving up too much, I'd do so. If we wanted another lefty, I'd look at Tim Byrdak from Houston or Brian Tallet from Baltimore; from the right, Cincinnati is dumping and David Weathers is having a good year, and would probably be available as a rental.

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I like

Never going to happen though. They’re too afraid of Pedro’s feelings methinks, and while it would be great to use Wagner like that, he and most closers in this league will only pitch in save situations in the 9th. Sad fact, but it’s true.

You’ve probably seen this article before, but it’s a good one: http://www.baseball-analysis.com/article.php?articleid=2603

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Aug 12, 2008 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To add to that

Pedro inability to get out of the first inning without giving up runs doesn’t translate well to bullpen work.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Aug 12, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pedro'll never agree to be a reliever

Besides, first inning troubles aside, he gives us better innings than any of his potential replacements.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 12, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Three fair points that merit responses:

A) It’ll never happen because Pedro would object

This is why I put in my assumption about being free to do what I want to do, and I meant to include without regards to players’ feelings. I feel bad about potentially ruffling feathers, but everybody on the team, first-ballot Hall of Famers included, need to be willing to do what’s going to help the team win. If not, too bad.

B) Pedro has trouble in the first inning

This is true (opponents’ OPS against an unpleasant 1.093) and it gave me pause. There are a couple of reasons I decided that it wasn’t too much of a concern to me, that I didn’t get into in the original post (it was late and I wanted to go to sleep) but I’ll elaborate here. First, psychologically (and, admittedly, subjectively), I think Pedro is holding back in the first inning, trying to ease into things, because he’s concerned about being able to have enough energy to work late into the game and he isn’t sure about how his arm will feel. By the second or third inning, he’s a little more confident and pitching better. If he’s not going to be expected to give you 5, 6 or 7 innings, but can focus on pitching one or two good ones, he can go all out right from the get-go.

Second, subjectively, I think he’s been unlucky in the first innings. His BABIP in those innings is .341, which is obviously very high, and I think it will regress to the mean. His K:BB in the first inning is a respectable 7:3. He’s given up some home runs in the first, but I believe that might be the result of the above-mentioned holding back. (In contrast, in the 4th and 5th, when things go south, his K:BB is 17:17.)

C) Pedro gives us better innings than any of his potential replacements

That has to be something of a concern, with Niese and Stokes still basically unknown. However, I just don’t believe Pedro has the stamina to give you 5 innings (let alone 6 or 7), whereas I don’t believe that’s a problem with the younger guys. (Don’t get me wrong, Pelf and Perez and Maine all have issues, but old age isn’t one of them.) Looking at it another way, the first time through the lineup, his K:BB is 19:6; the second time through, it’s 18:14. He’s not fooling hitters the second time they’re seeing him. If you can’t expect him to go 6, he’s not a real option as a starter, but rather is contributing to the ongoing fatigue issues the bullpen is having.

Thus, while I agree that there are legitimate concerns (short of acquiring guys we won’t realistically be able to acquire, I think any plan has its flaws), I think the advantages and mitigating factors outweigh them.

by JoshNY on Aug 12, 2008 7:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with most of your points

But how concerned are you about A) his ability to get loose on short notice and B) his availability on back to back days? He has never been asked to do this before. These are two things that would concern me and why I think Maine, because of his prior relief experience, would be better in this type of role.

by Reg Dunlop on Aug 12, 2008 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

A guy with an injury history like Pedro probably can’t be expected to warm up on short notice. It’s not just a matter of having his routine, he just may need more time to get ready.

And I agree, if they want to move him to the bullpen, then he should just accept it. But I doubt he would.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 12, 2008 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Small sample size caveats apply, of course

But a younger Pedro did make a few relief appearances in the late 1990s including one famous one in the playoffs. It’s a transition for any starter, no doubt, but I don’t think Pedro would have any more trouble with it than Maine. (I’m not a trainer or doctor or anything, so this is just a lay opinion.)

More than that, though, I think Maine has the ability to go deep into games and Pedro doesn’t. Pedro’s performance falls off a cliff in the fourth or fifth inning, Maine’s doesn’t. With the bullpen being overworked because the starters (other than Santana, at least) aren’t going deep enough into games, to me that means it makes less sense to move Maine out of the rotation.

That being said, I don’t expect Pedro to get moved to the bullpen in the real world anytime soon. But that’s not the point of this exercise, is it?

by JoshNY on Aug 12, 2008 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Josh, I dig your plan the most

It makes the most of what the Mets have at the moment, and it makes a lot of sense.

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Aug 13, 2008 2:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

front-paging means Eric agrees?

Just based on quality of writing and argument I think this is the default pick so far, and Eric seems to have agreed and anointed it the frontrunner. I don’t actually agree with the main point here—I think Pedro is worth more as a starter, and I fear he wouldn’t be able to keep his arm in tune enough to be available more than once every 5 nights without incurring a greater risk of injury. But the post is still a good one.

by anonymous on Aug 13, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not necessarily

The point of the contest isn’t to write what you think *I* would most want to see happen. I think we’re all looking for creativity and feasibility here, outside-the-box sort of things that might still be reasonably considered. Strong writing and cogent arguments are obviously helpful. I hope to promote at least a couple more over the next three days and then likely pick a winner from that group.

by Eric Simon on Aug 13, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One more thing I should add

Not so much an objective factor that suggests Pedro would be a good relief ace, as an objective, psychological one: If you were to look at our starters in terms of their ability to handle high-pressure situations (coming in with tying runs on base, or needing to get the other team’s best hitters out, or the like), Pedro has been there, done that in all kinds of pressure situations. Look, maybe Perez and Maine and Pelfrey will develop into guys with that kind of experience, but I trust Pedro not to mentally flake out. I don’t think I’d say the same about Perez, for example.

by JoshNY on Aug 13, 2008 8:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs