Monday Applesauce

by Eric Simon on Aug 4, 2008 11:23 AM EDT in Applesauce

The Mets have 99 Problems but a Beltran ain't one, Tim Marchman's counterpoint to yesterday's Mike Lupica-gram.

At MetsGeek, Dan Scotto has an idea of how to fix the Mets' bullpen. It's two-pronged: get better pitchers and play better defense.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sits down with Pirates GM Neal Huntington to discuss the internal machinations involved in negotiating last Thursday's three-team deal that netted the Bucs four prospects in exchange for Jason Bay.

At what he calls the four-letter, Keith Law looks at six players who could be on the move during the waiver trading period between now and August 31.

In a story broken by SBN's Martin Gandy, Tim Hudson will have season-ending Tommy John surgery.

At The Hardball Times, Bill Baer plots the remainder of the Phillies' season, looking at the rest of this year as well as the offseason leading into 2009.

Schlitz is back!.

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As for Beltran

I think the story is somewhere between Lupica and Marchman. He is by no means the Mets biggest problem, but I wouldn’t say he’s having a superb season either. I know many don’t believe in clutch hitting but I do and I don’t think Beltran is the guy you really want up in a big situation this year. Jerry Manual seems to feel the same way since he moved him from clean-up to 5th and now to 2nd in the order. He’s an excellent baserunner and fielder, but he plays too deep-too many balls drop in and runners going from 1st to 3rd on base hits up the middle.

Many Mets fans I know just don’t like Carlos and would like to see him go. I disagree and think he’s a good player who cannot carry team on his back, notwithstanding his great postseason with Houston. He is a laid back guy who plays the game effortlessly which sometimes is confused with being passive.

This blog site seems to go out of its way to defend Carlos B. HOnestly, I think you overrate him while many fans tend to underrate him.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Aug 4, 2008 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

Absolutely agree

And I don’t often say that.

I would only add my admittedly-not-original observation that Beltran reminds me a lot of another NY centerfielder—Bernie Williams. Both quiet and graceful, covering much ground in the outfield and running the bases well (though not prolific base stealers). Carlos has maybe a bit more power, while Bernie hit for a higher average.

by TomDC on Aug 4, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Well said

I will still contend that Beltran is one of the most valuable all-around players in baseball, but your points are still well taken. He has certainly not been good in clutch situations this year, though the same can probably be said for almost everyone in the Mets’ lineup, particularly of late.

Just another note on Beltran: whatever your feelings about Win Shares, they do attempt to quantify all aspects of a player’s game: offense, defense, baserunning. Carlos Beltran is fifth in the NL in Win Shares, behind only Lance Berkman, Nate McLouth, Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols.

While defense in general was perhaps overvalued for a while in the eighties and nineties, it has now become undervalued. Beltran is a very good hitter and a superlative fielder. The fact that we don’t have bite-sized numbers to deal with fielding shouldn’t take away its value. I can buy the argument that Beltran may not be the hitter everyone wishes he would be, but I can’t accept that he is underperforming overall, because when we factor in defense and baserunning (that’s running, not just stealing), there are few better players in the league.

by Eric Simon on Aug 4, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Clutch hitting

True, Beltran may not be the guy you want to see up at the plate with the game on the line. But then again, who else on the Mets could you say is reliably going to deliver in those situations? It’s horribly sad, but it feels like Tatis and Easley have been 2 of our most reliable hitters in high-leverage situations. And that’s just a damning indictment of the way the team’s hit all season.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 4, 2008 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions

its lupica has a bating average fetish

beltran bashing is the last resort of a lazy ny sports writer. betran plays a premium defensive position extremely well and consistently out hits his positional peers. he is the man. Q.E.D. marchman.

i am glad manual moved beltran up to second. so much better than piece of crap hitter endy chavez. the fact that manual penciled endy in at the 2 slot even once over beltran is inexcusable. manual sucks. more than randolph. belatran should be made player manager.

by kendynamo on Aug 4, 2008 1:03 PM EDT reply actions

not just lupica

A whole lot of writers have a batting average fetish. I’m not sure why, it’s lazy.

Bernie Williams is a pretty decent comparison for Beltran. I think Bernie got by on reputation to win Gold Gloves a lot like Jeter did (FRAA says he was good from 1992 to 1995 but pretty bad from 1996 on, even though he won GGs 1997-2000) and Beltran is a better fielder, but to give due credit Bernie took walks better than I remembered and his career OBP is 26 points higher than Beltran, which is fairly significant as a career difference.

But I guess the real point is that they’re both low-key guys, and Bernie gets a pass for his low profile whereas Beltran doesn’t because Bernie has TEH RINGZ, much as Paul O’Neill gets a free pass for being pouty and whiny and angry and Reyes doesn’t for the same reason.

by JoshNY on Aug 4, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the Bernie Williams comparison

is apt. Beltran is a much better fielder. Unlike Beltran, Williams was a homegrown player which made him more popular. Beltran has to live up to his big contract. Certainly, WS rings have something to do with it. I admit that I often get angrier with Beltran when he screws up in a big situation than when other Mets fail. It’s an emotional reaction. Carlos is the kind of player you have to step back to observe and appreciate

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Aug 4, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Correct again

It’s the contract on the heels of that Bonds-like post-season with the Astros. Also there were always more stars and big personalities around Bernie to shoulder the weight of expectations.

by TomDC on Aug 4, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point about the contract

And, as TomDC points out, right after that massive postseason. I can’t honestly say what I thought at the time, but in hindsight nobody could’ve reasonably expected him to spend the next seven years raking like he did during an insane two-week hot streak. If you look at how he performed overall between 2001 and 2004 (leaving out 1998-2000 because even in his RoY year of 1999 he really wasn’t fully developed as a player yet), what we all should’ve expected is great defense, great baserunning, good plate patience, pretty good power for a CF, OPS+ between 115 and 135.

Other than 2005, that’s basically what he’s given us. I don’t think we should really be angry at him for having a career year in 2006 – he was 29 that year, which is right about when players normally peak. The 40 HR were great, but not something a reasonable observer should expect from Beltran every season. Sure, I’d love him to slug almost .600 every year, but what I think we should expect from him is more like what he did last season.

Now, of course, he’s not hitting for as much power this year as he did last year. If he hits 22 HR, which is his current pace, I’ll be disappointed. We’re not there yet, though. For all we know he’ll go on a batshit insane hot streak in August and we’ll all forget about the lack of power in the first half. Or he won’t and we’ll all be disappointed. Let’s wait and see, I guess.

by JoshNY on Aug 4, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Well put, Josh

“For all we know he’ll go on a batshit insane hot streak in August and we’ll all forget about the lack of power in the first half. Or he won’t and we’ll all be disappointed. Let’s wait and see, I guess.”

This is a good description for both Beltran’s power numbers and the Mets as a whole.

But seriously, Beltran’s been just fine. The bullpen, the Castillo contract (God I wanted those compensation picks!), Pedro, Church’s injury, and the lack of competent backups for Alou are the reasons the Mets have performed so poorly. Not Beltran.

by ams258 on Aug 4, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

much of this can be put on Minaya

Went with last year’s bullpen that imploded in September, mishandled Church’s concussions and signed Alou when he should have known that he couldn’t get a half a season from him. If you take the 10 game winning streak away, the Mets are playing under Manual as well as they were playing under Willie. This is predictable. I can’t think of a worse managed game than Friday night’s loss to Houston. Keeping clueless Endy in against lefty, not pinch running for Schneider, the slowest guy I’ve ever seen (when you have 2 backup catchers) and keeping the inconsistent and tired Heilman in for that second inning. What the fuck was he thinking.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Aug 4, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions