How the numbers back up the belief that the Mets bats really have been terrible in the clutch.

by future on Aug 6, 2008 11:58 AM EDT

I know that many statheads here and on Metsgeek understand that clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill. But the Mets this season have really made me wonder if that was true, as they have repeatedly looked terrible this season with RISP and even more so with RISP and two outs.

Are the Mets chokers? Whose fault is it? HoJo's? No one's? Lady luck screwing us? I can't say for certain. But the difference between the Mets and the Phillies is baffling in these batting situations, and goes to show that if the Mets were even league average with RISP they would most likely have a lead over the Phillies of several games in the standings.

I'd like the split data for July if possible, I know b-r has the full season splits, but I would like to see the stats for July by itself, as it is considered the month that saved HoJo's job. Maybe it's just my impression from watching the games, or the affect studying for the CA Bar Exam had on me, but I felt that even though the Mets had an offensive explosion from Carlos Delgado and others, the team on a whole STILL hit very poorly with RISP and RISP with two outs. If anyone can get me that data, I would appreciate it greatly.

On to the meat of the statistical analysis.

These numbers were IMed to Jessica Bader a frequent contributor for the Mets on MVN, because I was looking at the Mets splits versus the Phillies splits for this season.

With RISP the Mets are hitting .253/.346/.379 for an OPS of .725. Our split OPS+, sOPS+ is 90. Well below average. 10% worse than the league average to be exact. When you have 5 above average bats in the lineup with Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Tatis/Church, it’s baffling to be that bad.

In the 1284 PAs with RISP the Mets have 386 RBIs. In the 1132(152 less) PAs with RISP the Phillies have 358 RBIs.

With RISP the Phillies are hitting .270/.376/.462 for an OPS of .838. A sOPS+ of 119. Almost 20% higher than league average.

With 2 outs and a RISP, the Mets have a line of .230/.360/.356 for an OPS of .717. An sOPS+ of 97 which is close to the league average.

With 2 outs and a RISP, the Phillies have a line of .235/.370/.383 for an OPS of .753. An sOPS+ of 107. Again, above average by 7 percent.

But there are a few more pieces of evidence that we can look at, most notably BABIP.

With RISP, the Mets have a BABIP of .272. With RISP, the Phillies have a BABIP of .302.

With RISP, and 2 outs, the Mets have a BABIP of .256. With RISP, and two outs the Phillies have a BABIP of .280.

.300 is around the normal average for BABIP.

Based on sOPS+ the Phillies are OPSing almost THIRTY(29) percent higher with RISP.

Based on sOPS+ the Phillies are OPSing TEN percent higher with RISP, 2 outs.

Even though the Mets are getting on base overall 8 percent more often the Phillies are unsurprisingly slugging 33 points higher than the Mets in their bandbox.

While we’ve been unlucky in the high leverage situations according to the BABIP…the Phillies are OPSing thirty percent more than the Mets with RISP. That’s just flat out ####ing baffling. And that’s with the Phillies hitting under what would be expected with a BABIP with RISP and 2 outs.

Let me know what you guys think.

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Comments

clutch effing rocks

by kendynamo on Aug 6, 2008 2:24 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed

I am a late convert but yeah for damn sure.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 6, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

This shouldn't be a big surprise

The Mets have 4-5 good bats in their line up but they also have some massive failures. With RISP Endy Chavez is hitting .157 with a .509 OPS. Brian Schneider is hitting .203 with a .571 OPS. And Marlon Anderson is hitting .094 with a .287 OPS.

On top of that some of the “big bats” have performed poorly. For all the hype he has received recently, Delgado with RISP is at .243/.357/.450. Since that included his torrid July, his stats must have been horrific before. David Wright, who seems to avoid all criticism, is at .254/.341/.399 with RISP. For all the crap he receives about being “unclutch”, Carlos Beltran is one of the best hitters on the team at .281/.377/.474 with RISP.

Basically, a typical Mets lineup fields 3-4 players who are hitting well with RISP. Reyes, Beltran, Tatis/Church, and Easley. The last three have good numbers in an even smaller sample size then normal. As long as this trend continues the Mets will continue to fail in clutch situations.

As for the whys? Delgado really isn’t good (his potential power aside) and even though Tatis has been surprisingly good, I don’t think too many opposing pitchers are afraid of him. Once pitchers navigate through 3 of the first 4 hitters they have a good chance of getting out of trouble. That gives them little incentive to give in to the best hitters and therefore putting success in the hands of lesser players.

by Reg Dunlop on Aug 6, 2008 2:42 PM EDT reply actions

For what it's worth

I don’t think the premise “clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill” is contradictory with the fact that the Mets have performed poorly in those situations this season. What it’s contradictory with is the premise “the Mets are bad clutch hitters”.

Taking, as an example, the oft-criticized Carlos Beltran, over the course of his career with 2 out and RISP, his tOPS+ is 95 – in other words, his OPS of .820 in that situation over the course of his career is slightly worse than his overall career OPS of .848. However, in 2008 his 2 out RISP tOPS+ is an absolutely abysmal 14, with an OPS of .451 vs. .818 in all situations.

Does that mean that Beltran suddenly forgot how to hit in those situations? I suppose all things are possible, but if I had to bet money on a prediction of Beltran’s performance in 2009, I’d predict the performance in that split to be a lot more like the 95 career number than the 14 from this season.

by JoshNY on Aug 6, 2008 3:12 PM EDT reply actions

RISP:WPA?

What you’re identifying are valid stats—whether or not they’re a duplicable phenomenon is a question that one season can’t answer. The Mets have been weak in RISP situations. But the slim difference in NY and Philly’s records tells me that comparing the teams’ RISP might be misleading, especially if the ephemeral clutch “wins games,” as countless broadcast teams assure us.

It might be interesting to additionally track RISP plate appareances by average WPA contribution. It would, to an extent, screen out less-relevant PAs in blowout wins/losses, and correct somewhat for losses pissed away by the bullpen.

Not generating an out with a man on second is never bad, but to what extent do the RISP metrics better the team’s chance of winning? To keep the examples of Mets and Phillies, I suspect the stats would match the standings: not much.

I did it like this / I did it like that / I did it with a Wiffle Ball bat

by Doc Manhattan on Aug 6, 2008 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

just me and my horsey

and a quart of beer

by kendynamo on Aug 6, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

N.B.

Please note, in my avatar, that :
A. the sun is, in fact, beating down on my baseball hat
B. the air is getting hot

However, my beer is not getting flat because I am drinking it at a good pace.

I did it like this / I did it like that / I did it with a Wiffle Ball bat

by Doc Manhattan on Aug 6, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

nice

maybe i should get an avatar where i’m a) riding cross the land b) kicking up sand and c) has the sheriff’s posse on my tail because i am in demand

by kendynamo on Aug 6, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

indeed

As your current avatar is of the ultimate Funky Boss.

I did it like this / I did it like that / I did it with a Wiffle Ball bat

by Doc Manhattan on Aug 6, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Should've hit "preview"

I realize that last bit was incredibly poorly phrased. Of course better RISP production will help any given hypothetical team; what I meant was that specifically, it appears that these 2008 Mets haven’t been badly burnt by their shoddy work in that stat.

I did it like this / I did it like that / I did it with a Wiffle Ball bat

by Doc Manhattan on Aug 6, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed about WPA being maybe a more useful comparison

After all, if you’re getting jillions of runners in scoring position and driving them in at a low rate, you’re still scoring more runs than a team that only gets a guy to second base twice a game and drives him in half the time

by JoshNY on Aug 7, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions