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Johan Santana and Pitch Counts

One thing has been made abundantly clear this season. The Mets bullpen hates Johan Santana. Santana has eight ND's this year, and in six of them he left the game in position to win. The failure of the bullpen to protect wins for Santana has intensified the debate over when he should be taken out of games. Many observers have criticized the coaching staff for not letting him go far past 100 pitches and some have even questioned Santana's desire to go deeper into games.

Star-divide

Surely, a $150 million ace can go more than 100 pitches! Santana can certainly go deeper into games because he has done it in the past! This is just another case of managers coddling their pitchers and over managing the games!

Except for one thing. Johan IS throwing more pitches than he has in his career.

Below is a chart of Johan's average pitches per start, games where he has thrown between 100-110 pitches, and games where he has thrown over 110 pitches since he became a full time starter in 2004.


Year    Pitches/Start    100-110 Pitches    Over 110 (120+)
2004            100.6                     15                            7 (0)
2005            100.8                     16                            5 (0)
2006            101.5                     17                            2 (1)
2007            101.1                     15                            5 (0)
2008            103.3                     10                            7 (0)

Santana is throwing slightly more pitches per start this season than his career average, but more importantly, he has already matched his career high in starts throwing over 110 pitches. He only needs to throw 100 pitches in four of his remaining starts to match his career average in 100 pitch outings. He has already thrown his typical one CG for the season and his average of 6.7 innings per start is in line with his career average.

Johan has never been the rubber armed, 120 pitch, Livan Hernandez type that some writers and analysts have made him out to be. It's absurd to expect him, at the age of 29, to suddenly become that type of pitcher simply because he has a big contract and the bullpen is terrible. Since Santana has six more years on his contract it would seem unwise to push him beyond historical limits out of fear of a bullpen meltdown.

Santana has left room for improvement. He needs to lower his contact rate, lower his line drive rate, and improve is K/9, BB/9, and K/BB ratio so he can make his pitch count more effective. The bullpen also needs to do their job and protect the leads that Johan gives them. But the answers to getting more out of Johan's starts lie in the ability of each pitcher to perform according to task and not in pushing Santana to the point of overuse.

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Good job

Thanks for compiling these numbers, I like when numbers do the talking rather than assumptions. Rec.

by Sokojoe on Aug 9, 2008 3:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

All the yelling about Santana’s pitch counts is just wishful thinking, I guess - no kidding, people would love if every inning of every game was thrown by a Santana-caliber arm - but I hope it doesn’t end up getting him hurt. A healthy 100-pitch Johan is worth any number of injured 110-pitch ones.

by anonymous on Aug 9, 2008 5:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting

I would have thought that the lower number of strikeouts would translate into less pitches thrown – I also would’ve thought that the lower number of strikeouts coupled with the higher WHIP would translate into a higher ERA and a less effective pitcher. I’m not an expert on the metrics and peripherals used for pitchers, perhaps he’s been getting lucky a little bit?

by BlackOps on Aug 9, 2008 7:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Strikeouts

Actually, a pitcher who strikes out a lot of batters tends to have a lower pitch count than a pitcher who doesn’t. This is because a ground ball or fly ball pitcher can have some bad luck, and a poorly hit ball will fall for a hit or some bad defense will let a hitter get on base. A strikeout pitcher, on the other hand, doesn’t have to worry about facing extra hitters because of bad luck. Makes me wonder what Mel Stottlemyre was thinking when he tried to get Gooden to pitch to contact more often.

by ams258 on Aug 11, 2008 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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