On One Game And The Grand Scheme Of Things

by Eric Simon on Sep 17, 2008 8:00 AM EDT in Commentary Comment 18 comments

There are two reasons I want the Mets to turn this thing around. The first is obvious: Awesomeness. Making the playoffs is a thrill; the Mets have done it seven times in 46 seasons and every single time has been amazing to watch (though the first two preceded my birth, I have been able to relive them on video). Tons of crappy teams have proven that anything can happen once you make the postseason (see: 2006 Cardinals), so even if the Mets stumble to the finish line (see: 2000 Yankees) the clock gets reset once the regular season ends and the division series begins.

The second reason I want the Mets to make the playoffs is because I don't want to be subjected to another offseason of the can't-win-in-Septembers, didn't-have-the-hearts, and Phillies-just-wanted-it-mores from the local media. If the Mets fall short again it won't be because of any of those things. It'll be simply because they lacked the production necessary to come out ahead during the final three weeks of the season. If they lose out in 2008 the way they did in 2007 it'll be because they didn't play well enough, not because they didn't want it enough. But hell, we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

The Mets are a half-game back of the Phillies for first place in the NL East and a game up on the Brewers for the Wild Card. The Mets have ten games to play; the Brewers and the Phillies have nine apiece. The Mets and Phillies are tied in the loss column, so the difference between the two teams in the standings can be made up if the Mets just win their game in hand (that game will be played against the Cubs on the 25th while the Phillies take a day off). There are a lot of ways this can still end well for the Mets, though there will still be plenty of articles on the Mets' demise now that they're not in first place anymore. It's very reactionary (and popular, I guess) to get bent out of shape by the results of one game, but there are a lot of problems with that approach for me.

One of the challenges of writing about the Mets every day is fighting the tendency to micro-analyze everything that happens. What do we know today that we didn't know yesterday? Very little, actually. Regardless of what actually happened last night (or any night), it's easy to paint the Mets with last night's brush even when we know that their portrait is really the aggregate of everything that has happened to this point, not just what has happened most recently. If the Mets were a good or borderline very good team a week ago, a few crummy games doesn't really change that. And yet, every night I sit here and try to find things to write that make sense and aren't tragically rehashed versions of what I wrote yesterday or two weeks ago, while also avoiding the alarmism that pervades most daily coverage of anything, sports teams in particular (and the Mets of late most of all).

Analyzing the daily goingson of particular ballplayers is equally challenging. I'm about as objective and analytical as the next guy, but I think we can all acknowledge the near meaninglessness of a single day's worth of accomplishments in the grand scheme of things. How has Carlos Beltran done this season? Well, he went 0-for-4 last night, so I guess he sucks. But if we take a step back and look at the whole season, we see that he's been rather marvelous (again). He's third in the NL in Win Shares, trailing just Lance Berkman and Albert Pujols. But he netted doodily-squat yesterday; how many Win Shares is that?

The Mets have stunk up the joint this past week, losing their last three games to two pretty lousy teams. As fans, all we can do is stay positive, point to the long season during which they've generally played pretty well, and hope that that has more bearing on the home stretch than do the last ten games of stinky. I may hang my head in shame from time to time over the next two weeks, but I'm in it 'til the end, win or lose, and I'm pretty sure you'll all be there with me.

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Propaganda

Theory A:

If the media says the Mets lost because they weren’t as good as the Phillies, I think it would hurt PR.

To say that the talent is there, and they didn’t “want it as much”, encourages the potential for the sheep (aka, you and I) to renew our season tickets in the hopes that this team will wake up next season, without becoming better at baseball, which is much harder to do.

Theory B:

Saying the players didn’t “want it”, places accountability on the players, the manager and the coaches. It protects the “brass”, who are asking us to give our hard earned dollars for their pledge of an unadulterated effort to win.

If the team wasn’t good enough, the “brass” failed to live up to expectations. If they didn’t “want it badly enough”, then the players, the manager and the coaches are accountable.

Who is more powerful, the employer or the employee?

Theory 3:

An objective, logic based analysis of the situation would leave potential for a conclusion, which is boring and has a limited life. The market for logic is smaller too.

If you introduce too much statistical support, you might lose the construction worker who wants to believe that s/he has a comprehensive view on the Mets. If you expose the true cause for failure, this takes away from the front office’s abililty to market less meaningful improvements. (in other words, they’d be forced to fix the real problem, which may not be the most profitable option.)

Marketing the failure as a problem with desire, leaves the potential people of all intellectual levels to have an opinion and more options for the front office to manipulate our perspective of their offseason decisions.

by Omar21 on Sep 17, 2008 8:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Correction

“….leaves the potential FOR people of all intellectual levels….”

by Omar21 on Sep 17, 2008 8:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

nerd

I don’t need your fancy STATS to tell me that Beltran STINKS when it MATTERS, like he did in the 2004 World Ser… oh.

by JoshNY on Sep 17, 2008 8:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm glad to see....

…that the remaining utlity for this misinformed perspective is in the form of sarcastic rhetoric.

There is light amidst the darkness. Thank g_d.

by Omar21 on Sep 17, 2008 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stats are for jerks, Josh

You have to feel the game with your eyes. Everything else is a lie.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Sep 17, 2008 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.

Let go of your stats. Let baseball flow through you!

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on Sep 17, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Omar?

Why have you switched off your player targeting computer? Is everything all right?

by anonymous on Sep 17, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if the national media had nards

i would punch them in them.

if the mets dont make the playoffs im neither watching espn, nor reading a paper nor using the internet for anything but pr0n until next years all star break.

by kendynamo on Sep 17, 2008 8:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I concur

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Sep 17, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another reason

if I may, Eric. Forget the offseason; if the Mets don’t get this done this year we are going to hear about September collapses pretty much every year forever. If the Mets haven’t wrapped up the Division by August 31, they will be doomed to epic failure, all because they lack Chase Utley’s heart and Brett Myers’ character. Blech.

All I know is I’ll be watching tonight, tomorrow, and so on. A win tonight would be a good first step. Ya gotta believe, and Let’s Go Mets!

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Sep 17, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to this game tonight

I plan on losing my goddamn voice.

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on Sep 17, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You fucking better

cos the Mets need your heart and grit tonight.

Also, eat a half-smoke.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Sep 17, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll eat me a half-smoke.

Bill Cosby loves the half-smokes. I doubt I’ll like it as much as a good ole kosher dog, but it’ll be worth a try. It’s got at least two different meats!

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on Sep 17, 2008 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't even watch tonight's game.

I don’t care if Brandon Knight throws a fucking perfect game, or if Wright hits 5 home runs, or Jose steals 12 bases. I am not watching. I’ll probably come back tomorrow night, but last night was like getting punched in the balls. Repeatedly. By a very pissed-off Incredible Hulk.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 17, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I enjoyed reading this article Eric

I’ll keep it short as possible.

I rarely make it a habit of reading an entire article that you or anyone else here writes. In light of the current situation with the METS I really wanted to read some coherent analysis, so I thought it would behoove me to read your entire statement. Perhaps you should be giving the “15 Minute Speech” from now on in the METS locker room.

Staying positive for the METS is a lot like reading the book “Secret” and wishing for the best while actually doing nothing. But as fans, what can we do? Have hope. Maybe staying positive and having hope are one and the same.

The best part of your article was pointing out the positive side of the METS’ body of work as compared to last night’s performance. The percentages (Wins v. Losses and Differential in Runs Scored) are in our favor. So we ‘should’ come out on top.

I hope the players don’t ‘press’ but do ‘focus’. There is a difference. The hell with the media! It is the 24 hour news cycle that has turned substantive reporting into “Johnny come lately” bloviating.

Let’s Go METS!

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Sep 17, 2008 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not just one game

You’re right, Eric – I’m in for the long haul. I will watch the rest of the games, and will be hopeful – optimistic, even. Last night’s loss, however, was not just one game.

Last September did happen, and there were reasons. One reason was that Jose Reyes just didn’t perform well in September. So far this year, he’s hardly doing any better. He was batting under .225 last September, and is doing the same this September. All the stats show how important Jose is to the Mets. When he does well, the Mets win. When he doesn’t, they lose.

I’m not hanging the Mets problems on Jose. He’s one guy on a team. This year, the biggest culprit in the Mets sputtering (temporarily, I hope) has been the bullpen. Counting on Luis Ayala to be a strong closer is unrealistic. Others in the bullpen have disappointed – I don’t need to name names. We all know too well who they are. My point, though, is that this year, the last 17 games are looking a good deal like last year’s last 17 games.

One more thing… clutch performances DO matter. If Beltran or Wright or Delgado hit a two-run walk-off homer to win a game in the 2nd week of the season, it would count in the standings as much as if they did the same thing last night. It would NOT, however, have amounted to the same. If Wright and Beltran homered last night in the top of the 9th, Mets fans would feel hope instead of fear – even if after that win, the Mets were still a half game out of first place.

Here’s something optimistic – that was hinted at by Keith or Gary last night. For the Mets to REALLY put the 2007 ghosts behind them, they should come from behind in the standings in September. So, what we have here is an opportunity. (Forgive me for lapsing into manager-speak).

by elliot on Sep 17, 2008 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's not time to panic

Yeah, I compared the Mets to the movie Jaws 2

But DO NOT PANIC!!!
My God, if they just hang on these last 11 games they will be in a very good place

And as I wrote, it is less about winning and more about hanging on and letting the Brewers and Astros fold under their own weight

by SullyBaseball on Sep 17, 2008 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think it's still about winning

Even if everyone else folds under. I’ll feel a whole hell of a lot better if this team can throw together a little winning streak AND everyone else loses ballgames.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Sep 17, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs