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2009 Player Preview: Daniel Murphy

Entering the 2008 season, the Mets and their fans had plenty to worry about, not the least of which was a farm system that had endured an offseason of ridicule and Johan. Daniel Murphy had earned the "prospect" label the season the before, but being in the basement of an already poorly regarded system, he wasn't exactly on a lot of radars. John Sickels ranked him 18th in the Mets farm, with a C grade. Kevin Goldstein ranked him 9th. Goldstein wrote:

The Good: Murphy has the best pitch recognition in the system and advanced hitting skills, with a smooth stroke and nice barrel control leading to a low strikeout rate. He has gap power now, and some projection for more down the road. He brings a grinder's mentality to the park and plays hard.

The Bad: Murphy is neither toolsy nor athletic. He split time between third base and the outfield in college, and his defense at the hot corner is rough--he needs to make considerable improvement in his footwork and throws to avoid getting branded as a first-base/left-field type. His power ceiling is debatable, especially considering the positions at which he can play.

Murphy started the season in AA Binghamton alongside similar no-glove, intriguing bat types, Mike Carp and Nick Evans. Although the latter players got more recognition early on, Murphy improved in nearly every aspect of his game. His pitch recognition translated to higher walk totals, he flashed more power, and even stole fourteen bases. Then, after a trip to the disabled list, Murphy asked to switch to second, perhaps sensing an opportunity to clear his own path to the majors. On August second, that opportunity arrived. Murphy began platooning with Nick Evans in left. Then Murphy hit. And hit. And hit. He finished the season with a .313/.397/.473 line, having successfully hit himself into the Mets' future plans.

Following the regular season, Murphy reported to the AFL, where he raked and, by most accounts, played adequate secondbase. Omar Minaya, however, claims he will share left with Fernando Tatis. Whether or not this platoon makes sense, Murphy posted a .4 UZR (2.6 UZR/150) in LF last year, suggesting he can man the position with average to above-average ability.

Projecting his bat is trickier. His .386 BABIP will certainly regress, but his 33.3 LD% is encouraging. He drew walks more often than his minor-league record would seem to permit, but he also struck out too often. He could hit for high average, but don't be shocked when he floats around .280 for most of the season. Similarly, his power could improve but the 10-15 home run range is very possible. Many praise Murphy's gap power, so maybe he will rack up a ton of doubles in the expansive Citi Field.

All things considered, Murphy seems like a decent enough place holder in left with the potential to be better. Mets fans can and should be excited about his 2009, but it's hardly a sure thing. Minaya hints that Murphy is the firstbaseman of the future and his bat must really show up to justify that label. That being said, don't be surprised if a leftfield signing and a poor early-showing by Delgado or Castillo has Murphy entrenched in the Mets' infield before long.

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I REALLY hope Murphy grabs the 2B job

It would make everything so much easier. We could sign Adam Dunn, with Murph at 2B. Everything would become so much easier.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jan 28, 2009 10:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

anyone think murphy will hold down the number two spot in the batting order?

reyes, murphy, beltran, wright, delgado would be a nice top five. dunn at the sixth position would be nice too (although if we actually signed dunn, probably better to put murphy in the six spot and dunn in the two/three spot).

by englishgrey on Jan 28, 2009 10:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

SamT, I've got a question.
His power ceiling is debatable, especially considering the positions at which he can play.

What does a player’s position have to do with a player’s power ability? Thanks.

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 28, 2009 11:19 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Power

Sam doesn’t really mean that Murphy’s absolute power ceiling would vary by position, as in he could hit 20 homeruns a year as a leftfielder but only 10 homeruns a year as a second basemen (though the physical toll of playing one position versus another could have some effect). He’s referring to Murphy’s power ceiling relative to others at the position. So, if we called him a 20 homerun guy, that would be a lot more impressive at second base than in the corner outfield. Considering that he is likely (at least given what we’ve heard so far) to wind up in the corner outfield or at first base, his power might not be enough to justify playing him there.

by Eric Simon on Jan 28, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I understand...sort of.

I understand how power may be effected due to a position like catcher. (The toll on a catcher’s legs may effect his power due to the fatigue that is induced from squatting throughout the game(s)). However, I’m still a bit confused when you state that hitting 20 HR’s at 2B is rated more impressive than a corner outfielder. How? Why?

Thanks.

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 28, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

How/Why?

Number of players who hit 20+ HRs who qualified as LF – 14
Number of players who hit 20+ HRs who qualified as 2B – 5

and just to complete the corner OF
Number of players who hit 20+ HRs who qualified as RF – 12

Wakari masu ka, Lou-san?

by Sokojoe on Jan 28, 2009 7:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Soko

Thanks for the stats but I don’t understand what inherently MAKES an outfielder in general more powerful than an 2B? Is it due to the general stature of a 2nd baseman? Is it because 2nd basemen are usually quicker and smaller therefore they’re not as big and powerful as an outfielder? That’s what I’m trying to get at.

Verstehen Sie?

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 28, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're getting there
Is it due to the general stature of a 2nd baseman? Is it because 2nd basemen are usually quicker and smaller therefore they’re not as big and powerful as an outfielder?

In general, second basemen are smaller than LFers. Think about it this way, if a player can hit but can’t really play defense, where do they end up, either LF or 1st B. Therefore, LF is full of really good hitters with poor defense. The obvious examples are Dunn and Man-Ram. Ryan Braun started out at 3rd, couldn’t play D and was moved to LF last year.

So, to wrap up, to find a guy who can hit 20+ HRs in the MLB is rare, to find someone who can do that while playing adequate defense at a difficult defensive position is rarer still.

by Sokojoe on Jan 29, 2009 9:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

BAM!

Got it! Thanks for the patience Soko!

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 29, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's a quotation from his BP scouting report

I was throwing in there for the non-subscribers. But it’s true and Eric is right

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jan 28, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Murphy at 1B

I wonder if the Mets’ organizational view about what kind of a bat is required to play 1B is skewed by the fact that two of the best 1B in franchise history haven’t been big power-hitter types. Of course, Keith and Olerud were both high-OBP guys (Hernandez career .384 including .413 in 1986, Olerud career .398 including .447 (!) in 1998) who were also stellar defensive players (I could swear I read something recently that included analytical rankings showing that they were the two best defensive 1B of the last 50 years, though I can’t remember where).

Whether Murphy can/will be that kind of a player is uncertain at this point (I’m not ready to pencil him in as a career .397 OBP guy based on his first 151 plate appearances, and the fact that he throws RH will handicap any future effort to become a great defensive 1B), of course. However, I’d be concerned if, hypothetically, the powers that be out in Flushing had simplified their thoughts on the matter to “we’ve had great success in the past with 1B who weren’t power hitters, so it’s OK if Murphy only becomes a 15-20 HR guy” without considering the other things Mex and C3POlerud did that made them so valuable. (You know, like appear on Seinfeld.)

by JoshNY on Jan 28, 2009 11:33 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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