2009 Community Projections: Daniel Murphy

by Sam Page on Jan 28, 2009 3:14 PM EST

Now that you know his life story, guess his line!

In order to have some fun with WAR later, post in the following format:

PA/1B/2B/3B/HR/BB/SB

To get a sense of what the major projection systems foresee, check his fangraphs page.

(bumped to top)

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sign Dunn, thanks

490/84/28/1/12/55/4

by jasondg on Jan 28, 2009 10:52 AM EST reply actions

murph

480/101/25/2/9/41/6

by Rob Castellano on Jan 28, 2009 10:55 AM EST reply actions

d.m.

460/80/34/2/7/37/8

by psiogen on Jan 28, 2009 10:57 AM EST reply actions

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jan 28, 2009 11:08 AM EST reply actions

future hero

450/90/27/8/13/54/2

" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 28, 2009 11:10 AM EST reply actions

predictions for the hammer (non-hebrew division)

475/85/26/3/14/43/6

by JoshNY on Jan 28, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions

Daniel Murphy (djbprojections)

PA/1B/2B/3B/HR/BB/SB
456/80/25/3/12/39/7

by djbutler73 on Jan 28, 2009 11:55 AM EST reply actions

I'll be the pessimist

350/60/18/2/6/30/2

Nothing against Murphy, but I don’t see the LF combo producing enough offense to satisfy anyone. Murphy will likely not be given the position full time and he will also be removed early for defense a lot. This will necessitate a mid season trade and cut into his playing time.

I hope I’m wrong.

by Reg Dunlop on Jan 28, 2009 12:12 PM EST reply actions

Arrived by combing all projections

460/77/27/3/11/57/8

And just to finish things off:
OBP: .352
SLG: .447
OPS: .799
wOBA: .349
ISO: .162
BABIP: .320
BB: 9.2
K: 16.4

Taking baserunning as an even 0 and extrapolating last year’s defense over projected playtime, I arrive at a 2.5 WAR, worth $11.6 in the free agent market. Worth about what Soriano did for the Cubs with similar playtime.

by Sokojoe on Jan 28, 2009 12:21 PM EST reply actions

It seems to me

The biggest question with his value is whether he can repeat last year’s defensive numbers. There seems to be a pretty consensus opinion on what his bat will do but if his defense last year was a fluke, and he ends up being below average, then obviously his value will take a major hit.

by Gina on Jan 28, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

For what its worth

That’s about what you can expect from Dunn in terms of monetary value. Fangraphs has his dollar value looking like this the last four years:

2008: $8.2 million,
2007: $13.3 million
2006: $7.4 million
2005: $11.2 million

I think that batting projection is pretty decent for Murphy. The problem is, as Gina points out, I expect his defensive value to drop at least a bit, and perhaps quite a lot. But its also already assuming a regression from his likely inflating 2008 batting rates.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 28, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with both your points.

However, while there is pretty much a consensus opinion on his bat on this blog, there isn’t really one by the projections. Bill James has his wOBA at .371 while Chone has it at .330, huge difference. At .371, WAR is 3.4 while at .330 WAR is 1.7. The difference is not solely based on BABIP differences with BJ placing it at .323 and Chone at .304. Really, it’s a difference based on differences in everything from ISO, BB, and K. Now, the two projections have two different opinions on where league average offense will be next year, but still, the differences are not lucked based but on projected skill level.

With all that beign said, I personal side with the average projection; however, while his defense my be worse, it could also improve with his work ethic and with more regular play (he basically learned LF in the majors with less experience than even Evans.) In addition, it’s possible that he could beat the average projection by somesort of combination of his ISO and K% matching his minor league numbers and/or sustaining that sweet BB% he found in the majors but not in the minors last season.

by Sokojoe on Jan 28, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

Couldn't agree more

If you consider the opposing projections either side of average on a Murphy-projection bell-curve, there’s a lot of room in between, but the likeliest place to hit is still the peak.

These projection systems always have a lot of trouble figuring out players with limited MLB track records. So much can change with young players over the course of a minor league season, or the transition from minors to majors.

Personally, I think a .160ish ISO, close to the average among these projections, is probably about right. I do think Marcel and James are giving him a bit of extra BB, 10.5 seems a tad high. CHONE’s got him at 8.4%, I’m figuring it’ll be closer to that. But I also think James and Marcel (mostly James, despite the optimistic nature of his projections) are closer on his ability to hit for average. That seemed to be a more legitimately developed skill than his ability to draw walks. He has good patience and is a disciplined hitter, but he also likes to swing the bat and is adept at putting it in play hard.

I think this where Marcel’s projection falls apart for me, I have a hard time projecting anyone for a .344 BABIP, and that’s the only way you can hit .293 and strike out nearly 20% of the time. There has to be a sample size reason that number is so high, be it with Murphy’s MLB track record or Marcel’s 276 projected PAs. I do think he’ll strike out less than that though. Before MLB, he hadn’t had a K% over 15% since Rookie Ball. As he gets more comfortable, I have a feeling he becomes the kind of hitter who likes to swing deep in the count, instead of adding more BBs at the expense of a few more Ks.

Its a lot easier to mold the James and CHONE projections into what the community seems to expect. If you take a handful of walks and a couple HR away from James projection, that looks pretty close to what I’m expecting. If you turn a few batted-ball outs into doubles (increasing BABIP and ISO a a little) to CHONE you get something pretty similar (the projection isn’t there, but I’m guessing CHONE overcompensated in regressing Murphy’s 33% LD rate a little too much, which would make sense just looking at the raw data out of context).

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 28, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

Good points

CHONE is all about regression to the mean, so a player who puts up a season so far from the mean ala Murphy gets beat up pretty bad. CHONE doesn’t consider minor league stats, so while it’s projection is a good basis, including our own known variables (MiLB stats) is a must for a player with almost no track record.

by Sokojoe on Jan 28, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions

touchdown murph

450/80/35/1/19/55/12

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON. WE WANT THE MANSION NOT THE CONDO.

by kendynamo on Jan 28, 2009 12:48 PM EST reply actions

PA/1B/2B/3B/HR/BB/SB

400/80/20/1/10/50/5

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Jan 28, 2009 1:37 PM EST reply actions

PA/1B/2B/3B/HR/BB/SB

495/87/32/3/11/45/8

That’s figuring he probably gets a bit more than his share of the LF platoon and perhaps an occasional day game after night game fill in for Delgado and maybe even Wright once or twice.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 28, 2009 5:56 PM EST reply actions

PA/1B/2B/3B/HR/BB/SB

380/70/20/2/9/35/4

by James Kannengieser on Jan 28, 2009 6:02 PM EST reply actions

I think I am right in the middle camp

400/73/28/4/10/45/3

by Endys Game on Jan 28, 2009 6:33 PM EST reply actions

PA/1B/2B/3B/HR/BB/SB

420/72/29/5/11/51/13

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 28, 2009 11:43 PM EST reply actions

Daniel Murphy means: "It's peanut butter and jelly time!"

399/75/28/9/10/50/2

It was the Mets of times...It was the worst of times.

by OVERALLSPORTSFAN on Jan 29, 2009 5:56 AM EST reply actions

PECOTA

The 2009 cards aren’t out yet, but Jay Jaffe wrote an article about Manny possibilities today on BP, and he gave little preview of what we can expect from the Mets corner outfield bunch:

Murphy: .263 / .327 / .405
Evans: .256 / .319 / .428
Tatis: .245 / .325 / .405

He doesn’t give a batting line on Church, but suggests 1.2 WARP in part time duty. He also mentions PECOTA projects over 500 PAs for both Murphy and Evans, while Tatis and Church get simply a “part-time” label.

To say the least, PECOTA is not a fan of the Mets corner outfielders. But I wouldn’t necessarily expect it to be either. In a lot of ways PECOTA is more susceptible to mis-evaluating players with limited track records in my experience because its so heavily comp-based. For a guy like Tatis, there’s very little precedent, and Church is difficult for a system like this to evaluate as well because of his unusual injury issues in 2008. I’m not sure how well PECOTA typically does with guys like Murphy and Evans, but looking at last years Murphy card, there was no comp-section, so my guess is, until the player has some kind of MLB track record, its a watered down version, but I could be wrong about that.

Either way, in the article, Jaffe looks at five potential Manny-suitors: The Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Angels, and Indians (interesting dark horse). He goes on to conclude:

“The feeling here is that the inflexibility of both Boras and Colletti will lead Ramirez into the arms of the Mets. Don’t bet on this drama to end anytime soon, however.”

Which should give the regulars on the Metsblog comments section a nice fuzzy feeling inside.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 29, 2009 2:56 PM EST reply actions

I think

it should give all Mets fans a warm fuzzy feeling. I don’t think there’s any way anybody could debate that Manny would be the best possible option for at least this upcoming season, if not the next two or three. The only problem people have with him is his price and the years – but if his price comes down and/or he accepts less years, I doubt anyone would have a problem with signing him.

by cjmulrain on Jan 29, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

My problems with him

1. Age
2. Fielding

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jan 29, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions

re: fielding

he’s rated better than Adam Dunn (-4.8 UZR vs. -10.1) and the guys currently slated for LF are slowish third basemen. In a vacuum, yea, Manny’s defense isn’t so good, but compared to our other options he almost looks like Carlos Beltran. If the choice was Manny or Grady Sizemore, sure you’d probably prefer Sizemore b/c he’s younger and a better fielder. But that’s not the choice, and Manny is clearly the best option, again, depending on the years and the dollars he eventually will command.

by cjmulrain on Jan 30, 2009 6:37 AM EST up reply actions

I thinkt the worry isn't just his defense

It’s that if his bat declines, which at his age is a serious possibility, and he’s signed a sizeable three year deal then it becomes a huge problem. Even if he hits like he does in 07 with his defense his value will plummet. Where as with someone Dunn/Abreu Murphy/Tatis they’re all either signed fairly cheap, or expected to sign incredibly cheap. If we sign Manny to a contract worth more than 18 or so million over 3 years, which is what I think it would have to be to get him to choose us over the Dodgers offer, that’s not really a moveable/eatable contract.

by Gina on Jan 30, 2009 9:30 AM EST up reply actions

right

hence my last sentence caveat. I’m not one of the Metsblog “We must sign Manny at all costs, damn the torpedoes” people. But if his price tag comes down or we could get him on a two year deal, I think it should be done. He’s 36, not 39, so I expect him to still be a very good to great hitter for the next 2-3 years, at least. I’m generally an optimistic fan, but the last two years have taught me to expect the worst with this team which is why I’m very pessimistic about the production we can expect from Tatis/Murphy. And while Dunn would probably be a better value than Manny, especially if Manny regresses a bit, Manny’s a better fielder and a right-handed hitter, which fills a need that Dunn doesn’t, so I think it offsets.

by cjmulrain on Jan 30, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

The problem is if you're not going to offer more than 2 years

You’re going to have to beat the dodgers offer which is like 22/23 million over 2 years? Which would put us right at the luxury tax for next year with increasing contracts and a lot of other holes to fill.

by Gina on Jan 30, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions

WARP

They talked a bit more about other corner OFers WARPs in the article. They have the current Mets corner OF bunch combining average 1.6 WARP at each corner. They have Manny at 4.3 WARP, Dunn at 3.8, and Abreu at 3.2. So Manny would be a gain of about 2.7 wins, while Dunn would be about a gain of 2 wins even, and Abreu about 1.5 (all weighted means, of course).

If the Mets would indeed have to top the Dodgers offer of 2/45, is it worth it to spend another $10-15 million on Manny’s 0.7 more wins? You guys know I’m not a Dunn believer, and I think using PECOTA in this way is pretty misleading, but unless the Wilpons have $15 million stashed away for a rainy day, it just seems like there are better ways to spend that money. On the other hand, spending $10 million on two extra wins isn’t just a good value, its a great value, if Dunn is indeed willing to go that low. I still think this overstates the difference in win value between Murphy/Tatis and Dunn, but that’s another argument.

The problem seems to be that the only way to get Manny, unless something changes drastically in the upcoming weeks, would be to go all out and really break the bank.

There is one scenario I could see being favorable to the Mets Manny chances though: if the Dodgers sign Dunn. There’s not really any indication that they’re interested, but I’ve read a few times now that they are Dunn’s preference, and he’s holding off for now hoping the Dodgers miss out on Manny and make him an offer as a backup. If the Dodgers instead get fed up with Manny, and sign Dunn at a discount, the Mets should be in a pretty good position to jump into the fray with a smaller offer. That still might make for an unhappy Manny though, the value of which is very debatable.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 30, 2009 9:19 PM EST up reply actions