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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Mets Minor League Defense

Minor League Splits has added TotalZone defensive values for all minor leaguers. A few Mets of note:

Fernando Martinez: -10 (2007), -7 (2008)
Nick Evans: -4 (2007), 13 (2008)
Ike Davis: 4 (2008)
Wilmer Flores: -1 (2008)
Jefry Marte: -1 (2008)

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Some more stat lines:

Ruben Tejada, SS: +2 (2007), +4 (2008)

Greg Veloz, 2B: -13 (2007), -3 (2008)

Argenis Reyes, 2B: +10 (2006), -1 (2007), +11 (2008)

Jose Coronado, SS: +6 (2006), -4 (2007), +13 (2008)

Daniel Murphy: +1 (3B 2007), -1 (3B 2008), +1 (2B 2008), +3 (LF 2008)

Looking at the stats, practically everyone seems to have rated poorly in 2007. I’m not sure what, if anything, this says about TotalZone (or Mets prospects.)

by psiogen on Jan 28, 2009 12:13 PM EST reply actions  

This just makes me wonder why Murphy isn't playing 2B.

Surely his rating of +1 was better than Castillo’s.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jan 28, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

...

Ridiculously small sample size?

by adropofvenom on Jan 28, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

He played only 17 games at 2B

with 5 errors to boot (pardon the unintended pun). I haven’t seen any defensive stats from the AFL but it’s probably safe to say he would need more time before taking over.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jan 28, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

or

He could play full-time, be horrible defensively, and let his offense make up the difference. IF indeed Murphy is that terrible at second, his offensive abilities have to make him more valuable than Castillo.

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Jan 28, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

That's not so guaranteed

Castillo had a bad year last year, but he’s been a good defensive player historically (5 runs above average in 2007, 5 runs below average in 2008, says Fangraphs).

Let’s say that Murphy becomes a solid, Ryan Church-type offensive player. Offensively, he’d project to be worth maybe 10-15 runs more than ‘08 Castillo. But if he’s 20 runs below average as a defensive 2B (imagine a 2B version of Adam Dunn or Raul Ibanez), that’s enough to make Murphy less valuable than Castillo even if Luis does no better in ’09 than he did in ’08.

Looking at it another way, the positional value difference between a LF and a 2B is about 10 runs. If Murphy were capable of playing average defense at either position, it’d be a no-brainer to put him at 2B. But if he’s 10 runs worse defensively as a 2B than a LF (and he’s likely to be worse than that) then the advantage disappears entirely.

by psiogen on Jan 28, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

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