Sophomore Mets

Fangraphs takes on young Daniel and Nicholas.

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Intriguing.

I really wish the Mets would put Murph at 2B. WHY NOT?!?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jan 30, 2009 3:37 PM EST reply actions

Really?

I mean, I get his bat would play up there, but can you really not understand why not? I can think of a number of reasons:

1. If it was just a question of enhancing offensive value, why didn’t the Blue Jays make Carlos Delgado a second baseman? Why not sign Adam Dunn and stick him there? It just doesn’t work like that. Murphy is not a second baseman. He’s played less than a month’s worth of games at that position in the last two years, and the reports weren’t exactly positive. I’m not saying he can’t learn the position, but unless he’s something resembling average defensively, the extra offensive value is offset by the lack of defense.

2. The Mets have a second baseman that they owe $18 million. I’m not saying I want him playing second base, but I also don’t expect the Mets turn him into an $18 million bench player who can only play one position.

3. Carlos Delgado doesn’t have a ton of range either. It would be a nightmare for a groundball pitcher like Pelfrey, especially against left handed pull hitters, and it would likely hurt Santana, Redding, and Niese as well, all of whom rely on grounders to varying degrees. I know Castillo was awful range-wise last year as well, but I’d still expect him to cover more ground than Murphy, not to mention the fact that his footwork is still solid and he still has good soft hands, both things that could be problems for Murphy trying to learn 2B at the MLB level.

4. Murphy wasn’t even considered an average third baseman. Moving him to second seems to me like a recipe for disaster, even if his offensive value plays up a bit. I have no problem if he plays there during the spring to familiarize himself with the position, and then occasionally throughout the season, especially on days when Maine (and Ollie if we resign him) pitches. Maybe a year from now, he’ll make some progress and play the position adequately enough so that it makes sense. Maybe you still find a way to sign a Dunn or Manny type, and you have the option of leaving Murphy in AAA to work at 2B. But you don’t just throw below average corner infielders into premium defensive positions and expect them to learn the trade at the MLB level.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 30, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions

Put it this way. You can't honestly tell me Murphy would be a net downgrade.

And I’m even skeptical that Murphy would be worse defensively, especially if Castillo continues to degenerate.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jan 31, 2009 12:43 AM EST up reply actions

Actually

A below average 6’3" third baseman whose played all of 20 or 30 games at second as a professional trying to learn the position at the MLB level? I absolutely do think that could be a downgrade, maybe even over Castillo. Even if it is an upgrade, its a pretty small one, and the Mets aren’t going to eat $18 million to make that happen.

Like I said, I’m all for easing Murphy into 2B, but its foolish to think he’s ready to be an MLB second baseman right now. There’s more to the position than range and bat, there’s “soft” hands, footwork, turning double plays, knowing when to cover 1B, knowing when to cover 2B on SB attempts. A few weeks just isn’t enough time to learn all that.

Plus, he’s just too big (not to mention stiff) to make an easy transition to the middle infield. Going down the list of the leaders in Games Played among second baseman at fangraphs, here’s the height of each player:

Player – Height

Chase Utley – 6’1"
Jose Lopez – 6’0"
Robinson Cano – 6’0"
Dustin Pedroia – 5’9"
Brian Roberts – 5’9"
Aki Iwamura – 5’9"
Kelly Johnson – 6’1"
Mark DeRosa – 6’1"
Dan Uggla – 5’11"
Freddy Sanchez – 5’10"
Marco Scutaro – 5’10"
Felipe Lopez – 6’1"
Placido Polanco – 5’10"
Brandon Phillips – 6’0"
Alexei Ramirez – 6’3"
Ricky Weeks – 5’10"
Ian Kinsler – 5’10"
Mark Ellis – 5’11"

Among these 18 second baseman, the only one taller than 6’1" is Alexei Ramirez, who has been a middle infielder for much longer than Murphy, and he still managed just a -7.1 UZR, and thats before we even get into a raw tools discussion. Among all the second baseman that are at least 6’, only two had positive UZRs: Utley (18.7) and Phillips (13.2). The rest were: J. Lopez (-3.8), Cano (-7.3), Johnson (-8.3), DeRosa (-4.2), F. Lopez (-5.2), and Ramirez. Its not easy being tall and playing second base. And in terms of raw tools, Murphy definitely seems to fit more into the Cano/DeRosa/Johnson mold than the Utley/Phillips mold. So even given a few years of experience at second base, its still pretty likely he’d be a fairly poor defender. Right now, my guess is he’ll be an absolute butcher.

Then there’s the punishment factor, taking a hard slide or two every week can be pretty rough on a player, especially one whose not used to that kind of beating. Is it a coincidence Murphy had a leg injury while playing second in the AFL? I don’t know, but its certainly not a good sign.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 31, 2009 2:19 AM EST up reply actions

I think

you’re reading a little too much into that leg injury. He had played a lot of games that year, and was probably just overworked and vulnerable to injury.
I’m not saying move Murphy to second TODAY. I’m personally of the camp that believes we should sign Adam Dunn, leaving Murphy in AAA to learn 2B. Then, middle of the year, call him up.
That way, in 2010, we would already have a replacement for Delgado (Dunn), Murph at second, and hopefully FMart in the outfield.
I realize that a Dunn/Murphy right side of the infield would not be very good. However, I honestly think it can’t be worse than it was the beginning of 08, where Castillo was not trying and Delgado was sluggish. I believe Murphy’s raw willingness to do whatever it takes will compensate if he is in fact a small downgrade from Castillo skills wise at the position. Generally, I don’t read into “heart”, “hustle”, etc. But if the Castillo of last year is the Castillo of this year or worse, I really think Murphy would be a small downgrade defenisvely, and a significant upgrade offensively. As for Castillo’s money…we can’t do anything to get that money back. But Castillo wouldn’t be a bad backup infielder for two years, even if his contract should be paying him much less. We can’t do anything about that.
As for height…isn’t Lincecum too small to be a power pitcher? I know that’s a completely different situation, but it speaks to the inability of scouts to understand just how every player will work.
I think you made some very good points, though.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jan 31, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah

I get what your saying, but if the goal is to get better than Castillo-value out of second base, I think your better suited going with, say, Alex Cora than going with Murphy, at least on most days. Even if Cora’s not an offensive upgrade over Castillo (which he actually is at this point), assuming Castillo doesn’t bounce back, he’d be a massive defensive upgrade.

A reasonable plan for the keystone would likely first entail giving Castillo a few shots to earn his $6 million salary. Short of that, I do like the idea of sticking Cora in there for Pelfrey and Redding’s starts. For Maine and Ollie, you could put Murphy at second and go with Tatis or Evans in the outfield, or maybe one of the Sullivan/Reed/Pagan/Mackowiack group if one of them actually hits enough to justify a roster spot and you want to have an all lefty lineup that day. I guess you can theoretically throw Marlon Anderson into that group as well. As for Santana, you could probably go either way. If his K rate continues to drop, I’d lean towards Cora, but if it bounces back, he probably misses enough bats where he could live with Murphy at second.

The problem with Dunn, aside from awful defense and poor contact rates, is that I’m still not convinced he’d be the most cost effective move. If he comes cheap enough where you could still afford one more SP and add Dunn as well, I can’t argue with giving it a chance, but that doesn’t seem particularly likely. If Manny is going to take you into luxury tax territory, so would adding both Ollie and Dunn in all likelihood. If you have to choose between Ollie or Dunn though, given the Mets other rotation options, I easily go Ollie.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 31, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions

At this point it looks like

Dunn will sign a 1 year deal for like 10 mil or less. Where as Manny is looking up 20 million over the next 3 years, which is why we’d be talking about getting into luxury tax area because of expiring contracts, players that need to be replaced and elevaitons in contracts and arbitration players. Dunn for one year wouldn’t be an issue, and Perez for w/e, wouldn’t make that an issue.

by Gina on Jan 31, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

Even just this year

Adding $20 million any way, be it for just Manny or Dunn+Ollie, takes you dangerously close to the luxury tax threshold, to the point where even if your a bit south of a $160 million payroll, you won’t have much flexibility in-season. Off the top of my head, my guess is, if you add another $15 or 20 million to this year’s payroll, you’d likely be in the $150 million range, leaving you precious little flexibility to deal with injuries and in season acquisitions.

And as far as this debate goes, squid92 wants to give Dunn a multi-year deal so he can play first in 2010. If Dunn actually could play first base, that would actually bode well for the 2010 payroll, since he’d be a relatively cheap replacement for Delgado. It would still be dangerous with all the raises already on the books though, and if Dunn tanks and can’t play first, you have to spend even more.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 31, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

Not necessarily.

You could always keep Dunn in left, FMart in right, and trade Church and a prospect for a decent enough 1B after this year.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jan 31, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think 20 million this year puts us anywhere near the luxury tax threshold

We’re like 20ish million under last years payroll still and the luxury tax is like another 10-15 more than what our payroll was last year. The problem would come when we have 13 million in raises next year, plus that 20 million still on the books, plus players that need to be replaced, Delgado and Schneider and random bench players,and I think Redding is on a one year deal.

by Gina on Jan 31, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

I would not want Dunn in left long-term

His defense is bad enough as it is, and is probably going to get worse. If we were to sign him for more than a year I would hope he gets moved to first.

by Gina on Jan 31, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

That was supposed to be to squid

I apparently am a failure at this comment system.

by Gina on Jan 31, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sure that's how it works

What makes you think he could be any better at first? Sure, range counts for less at first, but agility and hands count for more. Does that suit Dunn better? I’m not sure, but I would much rather have him flanked by Carlos Beltran than Luis Castillo or Daniel Murphy. Dunn could be given significantly less defensive responsibility in LF. Beltran could shade that way and Dunn could inch closer to the line, and he’d also have Wright and Reyes to help on shallow flyballs.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 31, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

I was going to argue against this

But I looked at his uzr ratings for 1b this year and you’re probably right. My God he was horrible. Like I figured he couldn’t be that much worse than Delgado and the upgrade in his bat from him to Delgado would make up for the difference but holy crap he is bad.

by Gina on Jan 31, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

We're 12 million from last year

by Sokojoe on Jan 31, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think that's true

My impression was we were right about at last year’s payroll level right now. Sure, some money came off the books in guys like Pedro, Alou, and El Duque. There aren’t a ton of raises this year, but you do have Wright getting an extra $2.5 million, Maine’s arbitration jump, and a handful of other smaller raises (Santana, Reyes, Church, Castro) to go along with $14 million for K-Rod and Putz. I don’t think we’re much more than $5 million behind last years $137 million mark at this point, and the Luxury Tax line is $162 million.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 31, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

It only increased $7M

The threshold was $155M last year, and the Mets were likely pretty close to that.

There are at least $15M in costs from things like payroll taxes, benefits, plus the rest of the 40 man roster, which get added to the salaries for the 25 man roster that you usually see reported as “payroll”.

by acerimusdux on Feb 1, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

I think that's a good plan, at least this year.

Have Murph play second for flyball pitchers. For the groundballers, Cora/Castillo can play and Murphy can platoon in left. Some form of this should work pretty well.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jan 31, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

evans to AAA

the fangraphs article suggests that perhaps evans should start the season in the minors, which sounds like a good idea. with all these scrubby outfields omar has signed, at least one of them should be capable enough to be a fourth/fifth outfielder, thus giving evans the opportunity to improve his hitting against right-handers and outfield prowess in AAA.

by englishgrey on Jan 30, 2009 8:48 PM EST reply actions

Yeah

that seems to be the plan. The only way I could see Evans breaking camp with the team is if Ryan Church desperately needs a platoon partner too. Then you could have a Church/Tatis situation in RF and Murphy/Evans in LF, but having Tatis and Evans as your corner OFers on days your facing LHPs seems defensively questionable, even with Beltran’s Gold Glove wizardry.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 30, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions