Wouldn’t Omar hafta sign Clemens first? I thought those two were a package deal.

Yes, Pettite’s 2008 (under)performance is a red flag moving forward, and Lowe’s (over)performance is a positive indication, but the fact remains that neither pitcher’s peripheral stats fluctuated all that much from their established norms. Pettite’s BB/9 and K/9 both actually improved in 2008 (over 2007) and his H/9 and WHIP were right where they’d been the last few years. Similarly, Lowe’s K/9 and H/9 were right on pace, and he improved his BB/9 a touch. As a result, given the similar ages, moving forward I would expect Pettite to experience a bit of a bounceback in 2008, and Lowe might see a slight decline in production from his stellar 2008. Going back to SNVLAR, 6.5 is probably about the absolute ceiling for either one, but both are pretty good bets to be above 3.5 as well. Which, as I said from the beginning, is a slightly above average MLB pitcher, and a valuable commodity.

I’m bored so I figured I’d use a few more of the fielding neutral stats to compare these two. They’re also remarkably similar based on FIP and xFIP (#s taken from THT, I did notice the FIPs on fangraphs were different but they don’t have xFIP so I figured it was best to stay consistent with the source)

Derek Lowe – FIP/xFIP

2005 – 4.10/3.53
2006 – 3.72/3.80
2007 – 3.88/3.50
2008 – 3.23/3.43

Andy Pettitte – FIP/xFIP

2006 -

2008 – 3.74/3.79
2007 – 4.00/4.47
2006 – 4.08/3.82
2005 – 3.03/3.29

When you compare some projections, you see how similar these two pitchers actually are in value.

2009 Projection – FIP

Derek Lowe:

Bill James – 3.80
CHONE – 3.71
Marcel – 3.67

Andy Pettite:

Bill James – 3.66
CHONE – 3.93
Marcel – 3.98

PECOTA’s not out yet, but there’s a very similar trend here.

Anyway, Interesting that in 2007 SNVLAR favored Pettitte, but 2007 was also the only year xFIP significantly favored Lowe. Its still quite similar all the way around, and based on xFIP, again we have reason to believe in a bounceback for Pettitte, but in this case, Lowe’s xFIP suggests his other stats were pretty honest to his actual performance, and that we can expect similar production moving forward.

On the other hand, tRA and tRA* indeed seem to significantly favor Lowe

Derek Lowe – tRA/tRA*

2005 – 3.99/3.66
2006 – 4.02/4.07
2007 – 4.08/3.94
2008 – 3.24/3.66

Andy Pettite – tRA/tRA*

2005 – 3.18/3.82
2006 – 4.73/4.59
2007 – 4.63/4.83
2008 – 4.87/4.46

Based to tRA and tRA*, Lowe has should be saving about 1 run every 18 innings over Pettitte since 2005. This difference is significant, but even here its not a justification for the different contracts the two pitchers are likely to receive.

Overall, my preference of these three metrics is SNVLAR. FIP is fairly simple and a good quick check tool, but not as complex as the other two. I like SNVLAR because rather than regress all events and outcomes to a mean value, it modifies the value based on the quality of opposition, which is very relevant, especially when comparing a pitcher in the best offensive division in baseball with a pitcher from the worst offensive division in baseball.