Random Thoughts: Andy Pettitte

by Eric Simon on Jan 6, 2009 10:00 AM EST

Andy Pettitte has turned down the Yankees' one-year, $10 million offer. It's not clear what he's looking for, but might he be worth a one-year deal for, say, $12 million? Or, is he even worth $10 million?

His WHIP the past three seasons:

2006: 1.437
2007: 1.426
2008: 1.412

His tRA+ the past three seasons:

2006: 107
2007: 107
2008: 108

His tRA* the past three seasons:

2006: 4.59
2007: 4.83
2008: 4.46

Meh.

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Eric, you know where I stand.

I agree wholeheartedly with you. “Meh.”

" Well isn't this place a geographical oddity? Two weeks from everywhere! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 6, 2009 10:49 AM EST reply actions

Yup

Whatevs.

"When the little children start to speak they once said 'Mama' and 'Papa', but with the fans we got they say the first thing, 'Metsie, Metsie, Metsie'." - Casey Stengel

by Prince on Jan 6, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

To sign Andy

Wouldn’t Omar hafta sign Clemens first? I thought those two were a package deal.

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on Jan 6, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

True

It would also come with the stipulation that a bible be placed under every seat at Citi Field.

by Eric Simon on Jan 6, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

Bible-Seats!

Just like Coors Field!

"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."

by IanB in MD on Jan 6, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

yuck, more like holy water under the seats

i would not be happy with this cheating liar who threw his own father under the bus when he thought it would help him evade responsibility for cheating. Not as unhappy as if Andrwuwuw Jwuones became a Met, but getting there.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Jan 6, 2009 12:24 PM EST reply actions

HEY! HEY! ITS4ME!

Happy new year! Good to see ya back!

(Tell us how you really feel.) ;-)

" Well isn't this place a geographical oddity? Two weeks from everywhere! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 6, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

Probably worth

5 Million

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jan 6, 2009 12:39 PM EST reply actions

Fine as a fifth starter, I suppose

by JoshNY on Jan 6, 2009 9:57 PM EST reply actions

If he could replicate his 2005 season

I’d be all about it. Of course, he’s had 3 seasons since then that haven’t come close to that season, and he’s now 4 years older, so that seems doubtful. Pass…

by cjmulrain on Jan 6, 2009 11:30 PM EST reply actions

I disagree

Say what you want about Pettite’s character, that’s perfectly fair, the nickname we have for him around the office is “The Fink.” But with all the Derek Lowe hype, I just don’t see Pettite as a huge step down, and a much better value at 2/24 than Lowe at 4/60. You’re paying more for the difference in competition they faced and the Yankees crappy defense over the last three years than actual talent level IMO. They’re both older veterans who have been remarkably durable through their 30s, have good control, and get groundballs. Pettite gives up more hits but has also missed more bats in the division that’s been the most difficult one to pitch in for some time now. And its easy to understand how balls were dropping in and runners were crossing the plate on him with an up-the-middle defense primarly comprised of Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, and Jorge Posada.

I can understand not wanting him to wear a Mets uni, the guy’s a Yankee scumbag, but he’s also probably a bargain for whatever team he signs with. In the NL East, I bet he’d be a very adequate #3 type starter who gives you lots of innings and prevents runs at a slightly above average clip. I doubt he’d be 2005 Pettite, but maybe something close to 2004 Pettite. With Lowe, I’d expect about the same thing….for the first two years. But a RHP who relies on contact as much as Lowe does, I have a hard time seeing him remaining all that effective once he starts pushing 40.

Honestly, before Redding, I wanted Omar to consider both Sheets and Pettite. I don’t expect either to happen, but they both looked like solid bargains and options that would fill out the Mets rotation well. Pettite gives you another 200 IP veteran and another lefty to throw at the Phillies and Braves three or four times a year, and Sheets gives you ace upside. Having another legit innings eater reduces the risk associated with Sheets and neither would force the Wilpons to break the bank, and you’d still have Niese in AAA for depth.

SP1 – Santana
SP2 – Sheets
SP3 – Pettite
SP4 – Pelfrey
SP5 – Maine

SP6 – Niese

You may not like Pettite, but its hard not to fantasized ab out what that rotation could do.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 12, 2009 12:30 AM EST reply actions

Just for fun

I looked up Lowe and Pettite’s SNVLAR (Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Above Replacement) on BP for the last three years, and indeed there was a big difference in 2008 (Lowe: 6.9, Pettite: 2.7). But in 2007 Pettite actually ranked higher (Lowe: 4.4, Pettite: 5.2), they were pretty close in 2006 (Lowe: 6.2, Pettite: 4.3), and Pettite was far superior in 2005 (Lowe: 3.8, Pettite: 8.4).

What this data says to me is that while Lowe is clearly the superior option right now, its also clearly not a $35 million difference.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 12, 2009 12:50 AM EST up reply actions

Sorry last four years that is

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 12, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions

And just to add

Yes, Pettite’s 2008 (under)performance is a red flag moving forward, and Lowe’s (over)performance is a positive indication, but the fact remains that neither pitcher’s peripheral stats fluctuated all that much from their established norms. Pettite’s BB/9 and K/9 both actually improved in 2008 (over 2007) and his H/9 and WHIP were right where they’d been the last few years. Similarly, Lowe’s K/9 and H/9 were right on pace, and he improved his BB/9 a touch. As a result, given the similar ages, moving forward I would expect Pettite to experience a bit of a bounceback in 2008, and Lowe might see a slight decline in production from his stellar 2008. Going back to SNVLAR, 6.5 is probably about the absolute ceiling for either one, but both are pretty good bets to be above 3.5 as well. Which, as I said from the beginning, is a slightly above average MLB pitcher, and a valuable commodity.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 12, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions

I’m bored so I figured I’d use a few more of the fielding neutral stats to compare these two. They’re also remarkably similar based on FIP and xFIP (#s taken from THT, I did notice the FIPs on fangraphs were different but they don’t have xFIP so I figured it was best to stay consistent with the source)

Derek Lowe – FIP/xFIP

2005 – 4.10/3.53
2006 – 3.72/3.80
2007 – 3.88/3.50
2008 – 3.23/3.43

Andy Pettitte – FIP/xFIP

2006 -

2008 – 3.74/3.79
2007 – 4.00/4.47
2006 – 4.08/3.82
2005 – 3.03/3.29

When you compare some projections, you see how similar these two pitchers actually are in value.

2009 Projection – FIP

Derek Lowe:

Bill James – 3.80
CHONE – 3.71
Marcel – 3.67

Andy Pettite:

Bill James – 3.66
CHONE – 3.93
Marcel – 3.98

PECOTA’s not out yet, but there’s a very similar trend here.

Anyway, Interesting that in 2007 SNVLAR favored Pettitte, but 2007 was also the only year xFIP significantly favored Lowe. Its still quite similar all the way around, and based on xFIP, again we have reason to believe in a bounceback for Pettitte, but in this case, Lowe’s xFIP suggests his other stats were pretty honest to his actual performance, and that we can expect similar production moving forward.

On the other hand, tRA and tRA* indeed seem to significantly favor Lowe

Derek Lowe – tRA/tRA*

2005 – 3.99/3.66
2006 – 4.02/4.07
2007 – 4.08/3.94
2008 – 3.24/3.66

Andy Pettite – tRA/tRA*

2005 – 3.18/3.82
2006 – 4.73/4.59
2007 – 4.63/4.83
2008 – 4.87/4.46

Based to tRA and tRA*, Lowe has should be saving about 1 run every 18 innings over Pettitte since 2005. This difference is significant, but even here its not a justification for the different contracts the two pitchers are likely to receive.

Overall, my preference of these three metrics is SNVLAR. FIP is fairly simple and a good quick check tool, but not as complex as the other two. I like SNVLAR because rather than regress all events and outcomes to a mean value, it modifies the value based on the quality of opposition, which is very relevant, especially when comparing a pitcher in the best offensive division in baseball with a pitcher from the worst offensive division in baseball.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 12, 2009 4:49 AM EST up reply actions