Mets, Redding Close To Deal

by Eric Simon on Jan 9, 2009 3:13 PM EST Comment 23 comments

Per Jon Heyman of SI.com, the Mets are close to finalizing a deal with free agent righty Tim Redding;

Right-handed starting pitcher Tim Redding is on the verge of signing with the Mets. Redding is expected to receive a one-year deal for $2.25 million, plus incentives.

Redding had a 90 tRA+ and a 5.16 tRA* last year in 182 innings with the Nationals. He would provide some rotational depth for very little money, but his signing would probably assure Jon Niese of a ticket to Buffalo when camp breaks in April.

(h/t MetsBlog).

Sam's take:

Redding is basically the definition of average. Eric Seidman projects him at 1.3 WAR using his Marcel Projection of a 4.77 FIP. If that turns out to be true, he figures to be worth about 7MM, a nice return on a modest investment. I have doubts about that Marcel's projection though, and would not be surprised if he ends up being almost exactly worth his contract.

The Mets will probably allow Redding to compete with Niese for the fifth spot. Anything more would be an overestimation of his abilities. But considering the money, and assuming the Mets sign ~~a better starter~~ Lowe, Redding is a good sign.

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OK

Not much you can really say about this. I’d rather have a good pitcher as our #5, but Redding is better than nothing, which is what we’ve had for most of the last few years.

by psiogen on Jan 9, 2009 3:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

180 innnings out of the 5 spot

at least can provide some stablity at the bottom. looking at the garbage we’ve tossed out on to the mound the last two years at the bottom of the rotation, we can try and be thankful that the guy will take the ball every 5th day.

by TBlz on Jan 9, 2009 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For the money and the length of the contract, I think it's fine.

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Jan 9, 2009 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

BTB had his value at $4.5 million (2008 dollars)

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/1/3/707959/what-s-the-fuss-3-tim-redd

So maybe one year $2-2.5 million is not terrible for a 5th starter. I’m okay with this.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jan 9, 2009 3:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nice link

One WAR will be worth $4.5 million or so, and he seems to be close to signing for half that. Based on the analysis at BtB, he sounds kind of like a Steve Trachsel — nibbly — albeit without the decent splitter.

by Eric Simon on Jan 9, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oops

I should have paid attention; Sam posted that link within his take in the post. Sorry about doubling up like that.

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jan 9, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No Problemo

The difference in the $$ value is I use 5.5MM per win.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jan 9, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In this market

I think 5.5 per win is overshooting it.

I know this article came out in 2006 and there have been updated research but it’s one of my favorite articles of all time (Not a hyperbole.) Based on 06 numbers, the average fifth starter had an ERA 6.26. I know some might be thinking, well maybe really bad teams are pulling the ERA up, well let’s look at a good team’s fifth starter…hmm…who was really good in 06…how about the NY (pronounced Nigh) Mets. Their fifth starter(s) had an ERA of.. 6.55!

Anyways, good signing at the price point, if he really doesn’t work out or Neise makes considerable progress, a move to the bullpen usually lowers a starters ERA by 1 making him a good Darren Oliver canadate, if that doesn’t work out, the salary can be cut just like Sosa’s 2 mil last year.

The only con is, I guess Petey is gone. That’s a shame, I really wanted to root for him and really don’t count him out yet, hopefully that 7 million dollar offer in the AL is still out there for him.

by Sokojoe on Jan 9, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mets 5th starters in 2006

IT’S LIMA TIME!

by JoshNY on Jan 10, 2009 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lima Picture Time

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jan 10, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BWA-HA-HA-HA!

Man, I really wanted to be first w/the gif on this one. I knew someone would beat me to it. Nicely done!

" Well isn't this place a geographical oddity? Two weeks from everywhere! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 10, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't get the top picture

what’s it mean?

by cjmulrain on Jan 11, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's Lima's wife in triplicate.

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jan 11, 2009 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ah

ok thanks. Jose did well for himself…

by cjmulrain on Jan 11, 2009 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

more precisely

The original picture is this picture of Lima singing the national anthem, with his wife behind him and son in front of him. This is an edit replacing Jose and son with two more of Melissa.

by JoshNY on Jan 12, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we all prefer the edited version

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 12, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

:-) However, it's difficult to determine scale when she's by herself.

Or?

Does it matter? LOL!

"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 13, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lowe

now that we have redding lets stop the BS and just keep lowe away from other teams and lets go to traning camp as a team and win the division and nl crown win the WS .Iam so glad we do not get ollie back but at same time sheets would have been nice to have with lowe / redding gives us more play room for lowe $$$ smart play here i think

by holly1 on Jan 9, 2009 4:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

not so bad I suppose

more to the point, I hope the Mets allow NIESE to compete with REDDING for the #5 spot in the rotation, rather than just handing it to Redding because he was a FA signing, since Niese fairly clearly has a higher ceiling than Redding, even if he may not be ready to reach it quite yet.

I’ll be disappointed if we wind up with Perez back rather than Lowe, though, at this point; a rotation of Santana-Pelfrey-Perez-Maine-Redding is alright but not tremendously imposing, especially with the better pitchers who are still available.

by JoshNY on Jan 9, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There won't and shouldn't be a competition.

I also hope Niese’s ceiling is higher than Redding’s, but clearly he’s not there yet. He’s just turning 22 this year, I think, and needs a year at AAA based on what I saw last year. If that’s the case, one year of Redding to keep the 5-spot warm is a smart signing. Now let’s just make sure we sign Lowe or another true 2 or 3 starter.

by madisonmetsfan on Jan 9, 2009 5:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed. Sort of.

I think there should be a “competition” just so Niese comes in and tries to win the job. However, I think he should get a pat on the butt and a “good job” on his way to Buffalo. I think he could use some time at AAA. Plus, I like having him down in AAA as insurance. This has been a problem for us the last few years.

by SQUAD on Jan 9, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Although I have been against signing Reddding...

he was a solid prospect with the Astros once upon a time. Perhaps he was a late bloomer and can be a guy who will soak up some innings in the back of the rotation for a winning team. Plus, after looking over the stats that you all have posted on Redding, I have been swayed. He isn’t so bad. Although I still don’t think his stuff is all that great. But we shall see.

by SQUAD on Jan 9, 2009 6:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs