Jenrry Mejia In Pitchf/x
by Sam Page on Oct 15, 2009 5:15 AM EDT
29 comments
Thanks to the Gameday cameras operated by MLB during the Arizona Fall League, we now have statistical measurement of the mythical stuff of Mets top prospect, Jenrry Mejia. Based on conflicting scouting reports, Mejia's plus-fastball sits anywhere in the 93-97 mph range, while his changeup and curveball both lag behind to varying degrees in terms of development. Last night's data is just a small sample, from an admittedly poor showing, but a good first step and evaluating his repertoire.
| Pitch | pf_x | pf_z | mph |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | -3.71 | 6.25 | 95.5 |
| Curveball | 4.79 | -7.29 | 77.8 |
| Changeup | -7.52 | 4.43 | 87.3 |
Well, the great velocity is real. His fastball does have some sink, as advertised--not a sinker by any means, but somewhere in between that and a straight fastball. Ditto his changeup to a lesser extent. His curveball showed above-average vertical movement, which is perhaps the most encouraging thing to come from last night's showing. Still, he only threw four, one for a strike, so I wouldn't read too much either way into that, other than he's perhaps not totally comfortable with the pitch yet.
Due to the extreme variance of movement on his pitches, though, the averages don't really tell the whole story.
His fastballs and changeups were all over the place in terms of horizontal movement, which probably explains why he kept missing badly outside the zone. Some of said pitches, though, clearly had the nasty sink most of us were hoping to see.
In the future, it will be important for him to come inside to lefties, which he seemed unable to do yesterday.
Still, don't read too much into yesterday's performance, as it was just five batters, three of whom were lefties. He did have a poor walk rate in AA (11.50%), but still managed to pitch pretty well there at just age 19. Jenrry has the rest of the fall and probably all of next season in the minors to improve his control. The main take-away is that he flashed a 97-mph sinker and a curveball with more downward movement than Clayton Kershaw's.
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Rick Peterson can fix him in 10 minutes.
by fxcarden on Oct 15, 2009 9:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
again, you're reading too much into this.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 15, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah.
I’m just practicing my sarcasm in the offseason.
by fxcarden on Oct 15, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well done, then
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 15, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the pitch f/x data is accurate
-The movement on that curveball is insane.
-Mejia’s fastball, at an average of 6’, sinks 3’ compared to the average fastball in the majors. Quick, someone find a pitcher that throws in the mid 90s, with that much sink. I can’t think of anyone off the top of my head.
by OlStubbleBeard on Oct 15, 2009 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's a good one
In fact, movement wise that’s not a bad comp in general. High velocity cutting and sinking fastball, mid to high 80s changeup. Difference is Johnson’s mid 80s slider as opposed to Mejia’s curve.
Now let’s just pray Mejia develops Johnson’s kind of command.
by OlStubbleBeard on Oct 15, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mejia had command
before he got injured.
by firejerrymanuel on Oct 15, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Be careful
about talking about circumstantial evidence like it proves anything. Excusing everything prospects do poorly is how they get overhyped.
by Sam Page on Oct 16, 2009 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the lecture dad
wouldn’t want to overhype mejia!
strained middle fingers are injuries than can lead to control problems.
a little bit more than circumstantial evidence. i’m not saying for sure, but i’d be willing to bet.
by firejerrymanuel on Oct 16, 2009 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Big Baby,
You’ve been trying to make every excuse possible for Mejia’s control since Wednesday, maybe you can just let it rest.
by Sam Page on Oct 16, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mejia
suffered an injury that is known for harming a pitcher’s control.
since suffering said injury, his control has gotten markedly worse.
i’m not asserting it as stone cold fact, or dogma, i’m just bringing it up.
i’m sorry for not parroting Keith Law or KG and for pointing out something that nobody else is pointing out, I wonder how this would be received if they pointed it out. likely as gospel.
“every possible excuse” = mentioning an injury that happened to him.
duly noted.
by firejerrymanuel on Oct 16, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's the way you brought it up
I’m glad you noted it. Did you find out if it was long term/short term?
by Sam Page on Oct 16, 2009 2:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
it's "fixable"
not really sure what that means, unfortunately.
i can’t imagine it’d be a long term thing if fully healed. but that’s just surmising.
by firejerrymanuel on Oct 16, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, and just important to note
the injury/command problems coincided with another incident, they hit just when he surpassed his innings total from last year. Fatigue is always something to watch with pitchers, especially young ones, and especially young ones playing against more advanced competition. This was my biggest concern with the promotion to the EL. We really still have a lot to learn about Mejia, and the Mets were going to be very careful about letting him even get close to the three-digit innings mark. Even if they let him throw 120 innings in Triple-A in 2010 and he dominates, what does that mean for 2011? Does he repeat Triple-A? Does he come to the majors with a 150 innings limit? And now they’re talking about converting him to a reliever to possibly help the team this year? Its great that Mejia has been so successful, but this does really seem like a case where rushing him was a bit short-sighted, considering he was a real project more than prospect as recently as a year ago.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Oct 17, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Circumstantial Evidence?
Please explain how this is circumstantial evidence? I am not saying this to challenge you…I’m actually curious as to where you’re going with this.
I’d also like to point out that circumstantial evidence does prove stuff…LOTS of stuff. Circumstantial evidence can be the basis for a conviction in a criminal case. For example, if Mejia shot Holt and Neise because he wanted to be the #1 Mets pitching prospect, a ballistics report showing that Mejia had fired the gun, that the gun had only been fired once, and that the bullets fired from the gun matched those in the bodies of Holt and Neise would, as a whole, technically be circumstantial evidence that Mejia shot them….and it would probably get Mejia locked up.
by JayWise on Oct 19, 2009 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, in a court of law,
corroborating circumstantial evidence can lead to a conviction. I was just saying Mejia’s blister didn’t necessarily cause his control problems. If we were to put Mejia’s blister on the stand, who knows what he’d confess to.
by Sam Page on Oct 19, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matlock moments
don’t happen. Never try to break someone on a stand….just set up your questions to paint a picture.
by JayWise on Oct 19, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I’m not a trial attorney, but I’ve had a lot of training in trial advocacy and I’ve represented people before. at least 2/3 of the people who trained me referenced Matlock when discussing breaking someone on a stand; they said that most lawyers never break someone on the stand in their entire career, and trying just makes you look combative. My current job is all writing, document review, and research.
The whole “circumstantial evidence” misconception is super annoying when you’re trying to run mock trials with a non-lawyer jury. They all think that it’s a bad thing because of television. I’m sure this makes a real jury trial painful, too.
Another big problem is the forensic television show; everyone thinks that DNA is on everything.
by JayWise on Oct 20, 2009 6:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can I take that previous comment back...
…and just plead the third?
by JayWise on Oct 20, 2009 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Small nitpick
Command and control are different things, at least as I see them being used. Control is throwing strikes. Command is spotting the ball where you want it specifically . Scouting reports on Mejia have been that he gets away with poor command of his change and curve because his stuff is so good (and we clearly see the stuff confirmed in this chart). Now because he’s so young, there’s a very good chance he will develop it, but he’s not there yet.
by OlStubbleBeard on Oct 16, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This
His mechanics were considered problematic before this year, lots of moving parts, trouble repeating, the result of which is often poor command. But there just aren’t many guys in the FSL throwing 98 mph with, let alone doing that with two other respectable pitches.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Oct 17, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one thing i've noticed
and that i talked about at FJManuel, is that prior to his middle finger injury, he never had problems with walks.
by firejerrymanuel on Oct 15, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
where did you download the data?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 16, 2009 7:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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