Brad Hawpe: The Poor Man's Adam Dunn

by James Kannengieser on Oct 17, 2009 3:00 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 12 comments

Following the Rockies' playoff elimination, Brad Hawpe trade rumors have been floating around. Impressive performances by some young and talented outfielders in Colorado have made Hawpe expendable, according to Troy Renck at the Denver Post:

Given the emergence of Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith and the Rockies' Triple-A depth, Hawpe will be a trade candidate. He is under contract for $7.5 million next season, with a $10 million 2011 option that can be voided if he is dealt.

With the Mets in need of power in the outfield, the 30 year-old Hawpe might seem like a nice fit. He's a good bet for ~25 home runs a year, and his career home/road splits are nearly identical. This is no Vinny Castilla/Dante Bichette Coors Field product. His .384 wOBA this season was 2nd best in the NL among right fielders, trailing only Justin Upton. In 2008, it was 3rd best (.379). Despite a large disparity in his platoon splits, Hawpe's bat would be a welcome addition to the Mets lineup.

Hawpe's defense, as was so eloquently put in this FanShot, is downright Dunnian. His UZR over the last 3 seasons is an unfathomable -80.9. Plus/Minus puts him at a terrible but not as bad -42. He's probably a -20 corner OF going forward, which unfortunately negates much of his offensive value at a non-premium position. Considering this, and also the fact that the Mets would have to give something up to acquire him, it's probably best to pass on Hawpe. The Mets had one of the worst, if not the worst, defenses in baseball this season. Adding an atrocious fielder like Hawpe would only exacerbate a major team deficiency.

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Very true

We should avoid Hawpe like the plague.

I was sadly reading about Hawpe on Metsblog, and they’re pitching him as a good target which is just sad really.

by Balagast on Oct 17, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pass

by fxcarden on Oct 17, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No Hawpe

unless he can play first, and do it well

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Oct 17, 2009 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thing is, he's exactly the type of player we'd overevaluate.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Oct 17, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

25 HR from a corner outfielder in Coors Field really isn't even that good

by JoshNY on Oct 17, 2009 6:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This

by fxcarden on Oct 17, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The more I think about it....

I hope they are not really going to consider this guy.

I have followed this team for 36 years of my life and I’ve seen enough fail to last me the rest of my life. Brad Hawpe is NOT the player we need.

by fxcarden on Oct 17, 2009 6:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Another thing

He told the Rockies’ beat writer he would void the option if he’s dealt. So his contract is more valuable to the Rockies than any other team (unless he wouldn’t be worth the $10 million. In that case, it’s no worse for the Rockies than any other team). It’s a lose-lose.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 17, 2009 7:29 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

I don't doubt the atrocious defense

but I’ve watched my fair share of Rockies games in the past few years and he always struck me as having a decent arm. Is the sabermetric arm rating based on runners thrown out? Maybe this is like how Francoeur’s arm has been rated lower and lower over the years since his rating of 16.5.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Oct 17, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I believe outfielders get UZR and +/- credit

when baserunners don’t run on them. Also, FWIW, Rockies watchers who completed Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Report also seem to agree with your assessment of his throwing arm. Definitely worth considering.

by James Kannengieser on Oct 17, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is his defence worse then Francoeur's?

Because I’m assuming that if we got him, Frenchy would be gone
looking at Hawpe’s WAR, it seems that his defense takes away offensive contribtuion; he was 1.4 WAR this year. However, it’s still better than Francoeur, by one win, but Francoeur is cheaper than Hawpe, who is going to get $7.5 million.
Hawpe has DH written all over him.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Oct 18, 2009 6:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs