The Value of a Perfect Baserunner

by firejerrynow on Oct 17, 2009 6:58 PM EDT Comment 26 comments

Seeing as the Yankees gave a playoff spot to Freddy Guzman, who is basically a base stealer, I was wondering whether anyone had any ideas on the value of such a player.

Say this base stealer is as fast as Usain Bolt. He cannot get picked off, or thrown out stealing or thrown out going first to third. This player is also good defensively in the outfield, with great range and an average arm. However, he has no offensive value at all; the only way this player can get on base is by bunting... his plate discipline is worse than Jeff Francoeur's.

So, what is his value, in WAR, and how much would you pay him? Say he steals 100 bases, and scores every time he is in as a pinch runner?

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It depends

How does this theoretical player score? Is he capable of stealing home with a 100% success rate? Does he still need to be driven in? If so, his value decreases substantially, mostly because it limits the opportunities in which he can be maximally effective. He should then only be used where he is the only runner on base—don’t want anyone clogging him—with fewer than two outs (if there are two outs and he’s on third, he still needs a base hit to be driven in—he’s exactly as valuable as the slowest player in this situation).

If he can steal home with a 100% success rate, his run value per game is 1.0 – the probability of an average runner scoring from first, plus whatever he’s able to contribute on defense. If he’s consistently used with no outs, he’s worth 0.12 runs a game or so, just with his running. If he’s consistently used with one out, he’s worth 0.47 runs or so. With two out, he’s worth 0.78 runs per game.

If he can’t steal home with a 100% success rate, he’s about as valuable as the difference between an average runner on first and an average runner on third, since he’s able to steal second and third with no impunity. With no out it’s about 0.43 runs. With one out, it’s about the same. With two out, it’s a little less than 0.10 runs. (Assuming he’s used correctly, he’s worth roughly 7 WAR a season, just as a pinch runner.)

The second big factor is this: how much worse than Jeff Francoeur is he at getting on base? If he’s capable of getting on base at even a .250 clip (assuming four PAs a game) and he can steal home 100% of the time, it’s worth playing him everyday, and he’s worth about 16 WAR (just shooting from the hip) on offense/running (1 run a game completely manufactured by his own abilities) , plus his defense, plus however more often than once a game he gets on base. If he’s getting on base significantly less than 25% of the time, he’s actually hurting his value by playing more often (again, depending on how ridiculous you want to make his defense). If he gets on base 0% of the time, he’s absolutely worthless as an everyday player but maintains the above value as a pinch runner.

If such a player existed, he’d easily be worth a roster spot. The problem is that player doesn’t exist, and real pinch runners are not that good. But in the playoffs, when margins of victory are expected to be smaller and you can get away with a smaller pitching staff, it’s not a bad idea to have a Dave Roberts-type on staff.

by Alex Nelson on Oct 17, 2009 9:28 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Lets say he has an OBP of .250

and can steal home with a 100% success rate.
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"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Oct 18, 2009 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

assuming 600 ABs a year

that’s 150 runs. I’d say that would make him worth it, when you factor in his defense.

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Oct 18, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also, very good answer

thanks for replying

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Oct 18, 2009 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a pretty amazing idea

but it’s wayyyy over my head.

by METSMETSMETS on Oct 18, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How much to pay?

One. Million. Dollars.

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Oct 18, 2009 10:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Players like that are useful if a) you can’t find a better way to use the roster spot (in almost every case, you can) and b) you leverage their abilities perfectly.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 19, 2009 12:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

think about it though

if the guy is a great fielder, and he scores literally once out of every four at-bats, he’s gotta be more valuable than most other players – his OBP and SLG suck, but he doesn’t rely on other guys behind him to score, so that makes up a lot for his low OBP. There’s no chance that him being on base won’t correlate to a run. That by itself is valuable enough, but when you combine that with plus defense, I think he’d be a starter on almost every team.

To the OP: did you get this idea from “robo-punter”? (i.e. how valuable would a hypothetical punter who would pin the opponent at the 1 yard line on every single punt be)

by cjmulrain on Oct 19, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A team of 8 of these

At 0.250 OBP would score around 8 runs a game (each getting on base and stealing home), and use their speed to play above-average defense. That’s easily a top 10 type player—and so he’d be worth at least $15 million/yr.

by DoghouseBlues on Oct 19, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The best range Runs this year was Franklin Gutierrez at 28.7. So, I’ll give these guys 25, with -1 ErrorR and 0 ArmR and 0 DPR, so that’s 24 runs. Then, they score 162 runs a year, so that’s 186 runs. Adding in replacement thats 206. That’s 20.6 WAR. Even if they DH, they’re still worth 18 WAR which is about $81 Million, at $4.5 Million per WAR. Of course, no team would pay that kind of money to this player, but he’s worth offensively a run a game.
If it was a whole team, it would be 164.8 WAR, so they could have a crappy pitching staff, and still be a playoff team.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Oct 19, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're not accounting for all the negative runs they create

In the PA’s he doesn’t get on base.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Oct 19, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

true, I realised that after I posted it

So, if they went 1/4 in every game and each hit was a single, they’d have a .225 wOBA.
But, a stolen base is worth .16 runs (rounded up, really .1593). So, if the player has 3 steals a game, that’s 486 steals a year. This leads to a wOBA of .344, which, using a league average wOBA of .329, leads to 63 wRAA. Added to 20 Replacement runs, and the 24 fielding runs thats 107 runs total, which is a WAR of 10.7, so using $4.5 million per win, thats $48 million.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Oct 20, 2009 7:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Go back to Herb Washington's stats

circa 1974 A’s…see if that helps. That is exactly what you’re talking about. (he was a track star whom Charlie Finely signed for exactly that purpose. Of course, the perfect base runner (he’s really a base stealer, not a base runner) is dependent on the perfect manager who can put him in the game in the right situation every game, not to mention that you’re burning two players off your bench every time (three players if he’s running for a pinch hitter).

by StorkFan on Oct 19, 2009 10:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

one problem with this guy is he becomes crippled if you have baserunners in front of him

then his .250 OBP would be a liability assuming 2nd or 3rd are occupied. Not to say he wouldnt still be a valuable player, but certainly not worth a run ever 4 at bats as previously stated.

by KeithsMoustache on Oct 20, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good point

here’s an interesting thought – if this guys did exist, what’s his optimal spot in the lineup…leadoff, or 9th (behind the pitcher), or somewhere in between? I might lead toward 9th

by cjmulrain on Oct 20, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it doesn't really matter much

obviously, 1-5 come up the most in a game, so maybe 8th

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Oct 20, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he never batted

and just pinch ran once a game, he would be extremely valuable I think. If he could be used every game to pinch run for a man on first with two outs (run expectancy of .251) and score every time, that would be .749 runs per game. That times 162 means he would be worth ~121 offensive runs. Nothing on defense or playing time, so he would be a 12 WAR player.

by supermets on Oct 20, 2009 9:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That would be assuming the batter doesn't strike out.

If this fictional player is on first, with two outs, the pitcher has to throw three strike or this guy scores. So if you’re the batter, do you try an get a hit, try and foul some pitches off, or take all three pitches and hope the pitcher throws a ball?

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Oct 20, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs