Non-Tender Candidate: Jeff Francoeur
When Jeff Francoeur was traded to the Mets, I figured he would play out the season and be non-tendered. A massive disappointment for his hometown Braves, this is a player who was one of the top 5 least valuable players in all of baseball in 2008. At the time of the trade, he was on his way to another sub-replacement level season. The previous 2 sentences are the main reasons why I was so befuddled by the effusive praise for the trade by the mainstream media, bloggers and my Met fan friends. How did people not realize just how bad a player he had been for a significant period of his career? Did the memory of a Sports Illustrated cover and a 1.21 gigawatt smile sufficiently hide the glaring warts on his game?
Naturally, Francoeur proceeded to perform well for the Mets, posting a decent .311/.338/.498 line. Combine production with an infectious personality and we're looking at a new fan favorite. Of course, his plate discipline remained terrible. He swung at a greater percentage of pitches out of the strike zone than any other Met and had the worst unintentional walk rate of his career. Sustaining a high batting average with such awful peripherals is a tough task. However, Francoeur has posted a BABIP in the .340 range in 2 other seasons (2005 and 2007), so who am I to say his .343 Mets BABIP is unsustainable?
His Fangraphs WAR with the Mets was just 0.4, but that seems a little low because of a seemingly fluky -8.6 UZR in just half a season. Another defensive measure, Plus/Minus, pegged his full season defense at +8. Considering these 2 measures have agreed on Francoeur's defense in the past, and the questions about UZR reliability for outfielders at Citi Field, a WAR of about 1.0 seems more likely. Extend to a full season and it's ~2.0 WAR, roughly league average. This kind of production would be acceptable given his expected salary, but counting on that kind of performance from such an unpredictable player would be silly.
Francoeur is still under team control, meaning it is not necessary to give him anything more than a 1 year contract in order to secure his services for 2010. Despite this, bizarre talk of an extension popped up towards the end of the season. The supposed benefit would be to buy out the arbitration years of a budding superstar. One problem: Mr. French hasn't shown any signs of adjusting his approach at the plate or becoming a star. Teams buy out arbitration years of players like Brian McCann, Cole Hamels and David Wright (also known as "good players").
Verdict: Bring him back next season but do not even think about an extension. Small sample size infatuation is a problem with the Mets' front office (see Daniel Murphy, Omir Santos), and if you have the opportunity to go year-to-year on a question mark like Francoeur, you take it. If arbitration* is necessary, hopefully the arbiter isn't as enamored with Frenchy's intangibles and fashion sense as most of the Mets fanbase is. A salary of $4-5 million seems likely. This is a player we can't easily project (although we can try), and there is a real risk he reverts to his disastrous 2006, 2008 or first half of 2009 form. Additionally, do not pencil him in as the definitive right field starter. Angel Pagan had an outstanding 2009 and has also earned the right to be considered for significant playing time, either as a starter or in some sort of platoon role.
* - For a fictional look at Francoeur's arbitration hearing last offseason, check out this classic Joe Posnanski post.
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33 comments
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Comments
Ahh that Pos article is great
The first comment from it though is kind of depressing:
Only thing that would make if funnier would be if the Atlanta rep said something like the following: "He sucks so much we tried to pawn him off on the Royals, but they decided to go with a sucky first baseman from the Marlins instead".
Sadly, they were able to pawn him off on us. Does that make us worse than the Royals???
by Balagast on Oct 19, 2009 8:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No.
Two words: Yuniesky. Betancourt.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 19, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the Pos article
Are the Francoeur people actually Omar Minaya? They could use the rock fanshot on their defense!
by Clemenx00 on Oct 19, 2009 9:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why does the FO feel the need to give extensions/large new contracts to those least deserving of them?
I can only assume they operate in some bizarro world of contract negotiations where they try to get the best deal for the player, and say “Screw the Mets!”
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Oct 19, 2009 9:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well put JK
The Mets have no reason to consider marrying Frenchy. The team has every reason to fear a relapse to worst-player-in-the-league territory. On the other hand, finding a league average corner OF (which is what Frenchy was in NY, regardless of whether he can duplicate the feat) without giving up much is not as easy as it sounds. If the FO is serious about potentially adding a Holiday, a Crawford, or some other OF bat a Frenchy/Pagan platoon in right is less likely to result in heaving and retching on my part.
Anything they spend on Frenchy beyond what you specify probably means this FO didn’t learn anything from the Opie fiasco last off-season.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
by dcrockett17 on Oct 19, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ryan church was an above average player
every year of his career, except this year.
by EtSuKe on Oct 19, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the suggested approach...
I was happy with the trade when it occured as it involved two underperforming outfielders who needed a change of geography and might benefit from it. Personally I can’t quite understand the total LOVE/HATE feelings Francouer generates from otherwise rational people, but I like the tone of the article. Francouer did a decent job and provided a much needed spark to a team that looked like the cast of “Night of the Living Dead”. He isn’t talentless, but he isn’t a great player either and he obviously has issues that need addressing. That said, the Mets don’t have sufficient talent or money to address everything wrong with the team currently and even if they did, Omar and Jerry would negate the effort until they’re dismissed. But Francouer showed enough, in my opinion, to be worth bringing back for next season to see if he’s interested or able to minimize his negatives, while continuing to expand his positives. I don’t see a need for a long-term contract at this point, and think given the horrible record of the current Mets’ administration, they’d be better off paying up for him in a longer-term deal AFTER a successful 2010 campaign or parting ways with him if he regresses. The look-see for next year I think is worth it however.
by Cranky50 on Oct 19, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The positive difference Francoeur showed was the increase in pop
Really, nothing about what he was doing offensively changed from the first half aside from an increase in BABIP and HR/FB. Since BABIP does correlate a bit with power, it makes the higher rate a bit more acceptable looking, though .340 is probably still higher than can be reasonably expected. Still, he makes enough contact where an increase in power should be an acceptable way to make him the 2+ WAR player we are hoping for. Its also worth noting that in his horrible stretches, Francoeur’s BABIP was just as far below expectation as it was above during his good years.
None of this has anything to do with the theory behind the trade. From the lens of the USSM article on roster construction theory, the thinking wasn’t so terrible, if you assume that Francoeur was a volatile player whose potential outcomes ranged from extreme to extreme. In the short term, from the point in time the trade was made, adopting some risk really was a wise move, since so much of the risks inherent in the roster from opening day went about as poorly as possible. If our assumption about Frenchy’s outcomes lying on the extremes is true, this is exactly the kind of high reward move that might have saved the Mets season.
However, the problem is twofold. First, the assumptions are flawed, in that Francoeur’s potential outcomes are much more extreme in the negative end, while the positive ones have a shorter ceiling dictated by his inability to draw walks. And second, the other problem is that Ryan Church was a much better long-term solution for this particular roster construction. At the end of the year, at best, the risk inherent in the roster was going to re-set for next year (in reality, injuries can be degenerative or not degenerative, but never progressive, so the average expected outcomes have to get weighed towards the negative a bit). At worst, the risk is magnified considerably, after being high to begin with. As was the feeling at the time of the trade, Church was the much more stable, risk averse option than Francoeur, even if you consider their average expected outcomes reasonably similar. Being that the Mets already had so much risk invested in their roster, with the vast majority of wins coming from a small minority of roster spots, adding greater risk is a trickier long term proposition, and theoretically, the team would have almost certainly been better served with Church stabilizing than Francoeur volatilizing.
But, alas, we are no longer left with the decision of Jeff Francoeur or Ryan Church. We have the decision of Jeff Francoeur or not Jeff Francoeur. While the better solution to the former is Church, as established, the better solution to the latter is that having Jeff Francoeur probably makes more sense than not having Jeff Francoeur given his service time status. In this sense, the gamble that Omar made in acquiring Frenchy (a gamble made under flawed assumptions) was doomed to fail, and now the issue is more a question of damage prevention than improvement, which while this may be the last thing Mets fans want to hear, is still the approach the organization needs to take with Frenchy.
P.S. Being that there has been little further talk of a Frenchy extension, I sincerely hope the article discussing the Mets consideration of such a move was just filler for a writer who needed material on a slow day. This is absolutely the last thing that should be on the minds of any Mets brass, and it would be a very sad state of affairs if it was a legitimate consideration.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Oct 19, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
.311/.338/.498 is not "decent." That's an .836 OPS. Be fair and give him the credit he deserves, if you want to bash him for his shortcomings.
by Metzfan22 on Oct 19, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For a RF whose defensive talent level is fairly unclear
I’d say that’s decent. And I didn’t come away from the article feeling as though James was “bashing” Francoeur, I thought it was a fair and reasonable assessment.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Oct 19, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OPS is flawed
OBP is more important than SLG, and a .338 OBP for a corner OF is “decent” at best.
by yellomellojello on Oct 19, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually, SLG correlates a little better with OBP
proved here
(OPS’ is GPA: 1.8*OBP+SLG/4)
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 19, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LEAVE JEFF FRANCOUER ALOOONE
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 19, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Let’s pick on Bobby Abreu and those who want the Mets to consider him.
He can’t run the bases worth a shit.
by fxcarden on Oct 19, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's better than Francouer
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 19, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think "decent" is a fair adjective
“Respectable” is another synonym, which I think also works. I hesitate to throw around an “outstanding” or “out-of-this-world” for a .350 wOBA from a right fielder.
by James Kannengieser on Oct 19, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and that's only half a season
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 19, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meddler....
I think what’s missing in your statistical analysis is the “gerbil effect”. I don’t think Manuel was going to allow Church to reach his potential, wasn’t going to play him consistantly and seemed all too quick to undercut him. I’m not bashing Church, but he didn’t perform in a superior fashion after the trade and while he was at one time a very capable player, I’m not sure quite what to think of him now.
Meanwhile Francoeur’s lack of walks contributing to a low OBP is a negative, but his increased slugging over Church and driving in of runs probably complemented the exisiting talent (people like Castillo and Wright who were getting on base but not being driven in to result in runs) better than Church was doing. This doesn’t make him an all star by any means, but I don’t see the results making him clearly inferior to Ryan Church at this point either. Either way, while I think bringing him back makes sense, I don’t think a long-term deal does. And while I’m not willing to play cheerleader to the “intangibles” debate, I think in all considerations, one has to remember that statistics are mathmatical computations and there is a human, social interaction that plays a part in what result you get in the field. Giving Francoeur ZERO credit for any positive from that, I’d argue that Manuel’s handling of Church was simply going to generate a performance that was less than he was capable of.
by Cranky50 on Oct 19, 2009 6:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You may be right about the human interaction between staff and player being a hindrance on Church
But I think you’re misunderstanding my argument about Church vs. Francoeur. I wasn’t trying to say that Church was an all-considerations, 100% objectively better player than Francoeur. In fact I was operating under the assumption that in a vacuum, they’re about equal, which we can debate, but isn’t really that important for my argument. What I was saying was that the expectations of what Church can provide fall within a much smaller range than those Francoeur can provide. The average expected outcome, or what we more often refer to as a mean-level projection, might be similar for both in terms of WAR. But if you expect both to be a 1.5 WAR player, its very probable that Church is going to fall somewhere in the 0-3 WAR range, while for Francoeur, he has a much larger chance of going outside the 0-2 WAR range, and could even go as far as -1.5 – +4.5 WAR. The historical WAR data for each player backs this up. Church, who is now 31, has ranged from 0.9-3 WAR in every season since becoming a “regular” player, and has most often fallen in the 1-2 WAR range. Francoeur, on the other hand, has been as low as -1.3 WAR and as high as 3.6 WAR, and having only recently turned 25, there’s reason to suspect that the 3.6 might not be the high watermark of his career.
If we reverse engineer the WAR a bit, we can see that this is largely for two reasons:
1. BB% is more sustainable than BABIP.
2. Church’s defense has been much more consistent in terms of range, and has thus been more consistent than Francoeurs. This comes across most significantly in Church’s career 12.7 UZR/150 in RF.
The truth is, these guys are both pretty modest as far as major league baseball players go. But the point of my argument about prefering Church was more about the risks already inherent in the way the Mets roster is constructed, namely a large number of wins compacted into a small minority of players. Its not meant as a criticism of that type of method of roster construction, contrary, I think its a strong initial theory, but the failure has come in management’s inability to properly evaluate the risks already present, and thus lean towards more risk averse measures in future acquisitions. In this case, if considering players with virtually equal projections, the organization should be strongly favoring the players with a more stable range of outcomes, rather than the more volatile player with the larger range of outcomes, since the need to generate a high quantity of runs out of few roster spots is smaller, but the need for stable supporting players is still hugely important.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Oct 19, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn...
it’s just baseball, guys.
btw…can someone reverse engineer a winning team ?.
it seems those in charge are incapable.
and no…..I am not asking for a winning team in the “we won more games than we lost” sense . I am asking for the kind of winning team that gets rings and parades.
by fxcarden on Oct 19, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you can be smart about everything
“no need to attach waffle irons to those sneakers, Adi Dassler…it’s just soccer”
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 19, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
even if this "gerbil effect" thing were presumed to be true
wouldn’t this closed-mindedness represent yet another reason to fire Jerry, rather than a reason to trade Church? (see also: Ramon Castro)
by JoshNY on Oct 20, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Francoeur is higher risk, but he is worse
Francoeur’s career wOBA is .317. Church’s is .341. Francoeur’s career UZR/150 is 6.3. Church’s is 5.3. I think Church is the better, more consistent (as Meddler said) player. Frenchy is younger, and Church is declining a little, but Frenchy hasn’t shown sign of improvement. I don’t think Frenchy and Church are equal at all. I do think we should keep Frenchy as a possible platoon player and bench player.
by EtSuKe on Oct 19, 2009 7:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree about Francoeur's higher beta....
Sorry, I wasn’t attempting to imply that I disagreed with the idea that Francoeur’s range of seasons was the least predictable. In fact I’d quite agree with that. Intuitively I suspect that decent teams in seasons where they win big, usually will have a few of their less predictable players hitting the top ends of their ranges, while bad teams in decconstruction would have more sub-par performances. And I’d also agree that given Francoeur’s age difference, he’s more likely to extend the outter ranges of his performance. That said, if he extends them on the upside he becomes a much more attractive player to have on the team, if he extends them on the downside, he should join Omar and Jerry in the unemployment line.
by Cranky50 on Oct 19, 2009 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
JoshNY and EtSuKe...
Absolutely! It’s a reason to fire Jerry! A manager’s job is to figure out what his players CAN do and to maximize their opportunities to do those things, while knowing what they CAN’T do, and minimizing the times they’re asked to that. I wasn’t suggesting that Church caused the problem, but that Manuel’s handling of him and his playiing time was ill-advised and kept him from reaching his full potential. I’m concerened there may be a carryover effect (lack of confidence) or it may be the results of multiple concussions that have left Church a more unpredicatable and less productive player after leaving the Mets. But I didn’t mean to imply the problem was Church, but that put in unfavorable conditions with someone who didn’t appear to trust his abilities undercut his net performance.
by Cranky50 on Oct 21, 2009 9:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
why the hatred for francouer
i must have missed something, francouer was the best player on the mets after he got here getting him for ryan church was a steal, why do you and others bad mouth him, hes not the best but the can do a lot worse, he should be a solid player for thgem in rf for years to come
by scott r on Oct 22, 2009 6:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
one more thing
what language are you speaking, i play fantasy baseball but i read the se post and have no idea what you are talking about, fangraphs, war babip, just give me avg, rbi and hrs, anyway you look at hes better than ryan church or other people on the roster
by scott r on Oct 22, 2009 6:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No way
is this the infamous scotty?
This has gotta be a joke similar to francoueravenue
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Oct 23, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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