Everybody Loves Mike Scioscia
Matt at Metsblog noted yesterday that he loses count of the emails he receives from fans clamoring for a manager like Mike Scioscia. I rarely receive emails from readers, and that's just fine, but I would agree there is a general perception that Scioscia's teams are always hard-working, fundamentally sound overachievers. This perception likely stems from any number of factors:
- In Scioscia's guest starring role in "Homer At The Bat", a Simpsons episode, Waylon Smithers found him deer hunting. He then starts working at the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant because of a desire to work a blue collar job. Baseball fans love a good blue collar personality.
- The Angels consistently make the playoffs.
- Scioscia was a catcher, a field general, a leader of the World Champion 1988 Dodgers.
- The Angels have had success without fielding brand name superstars. (Vladimir Guerrero comes closest to the "brand name" title; Mark Teixeira played half a season in 2008)
Columns from sportswriters, like this one from the Star-Ledger bizarrely declaring Scioscia "Most Valuable Manager", only feed the general public's burning desire for a calm-eyed, lunchpail toting man in uniform. Does this perception have any statistical basis? To try to find an answer, I looked at the Angels' baserunning, defense and actual record vs. Pythagorean record since 2002, the year the Angels won the World Series. This is rudimentary, but baserunning and defense are the most cited examples of "fundamentals" and both can be reasonably measured by statistics.
First up is baserunning, as measured by the Baseball Prospectus stat EqBRR. This measures how many runs above or below average a team's baserunning is worth. I also included stolen base % and the Angels' AL rank in each stat by season:
| Year | EqBRR | AL Rank | SB % | AL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | -7.6 | 7 | 70% | 7 |
| 2003 | -4.2 | 6 | 68% | 11 |
| 2004 | 1.9 | 2 | 76% | 2 |
| 2005 | -5.3 | 9 | 74% | 5 |
| 2006 | 14.4 | 1 | 72% | 5 |
| 2007 | 3.1 | 5 | 72% | 11 |
| 2008 | 5.2 | 4 | 73% | 8 |
| 2009 | 1.3 | 6 | 70% | 11 |
Based on these numbers, it appears Angels baserunners have been slightly above average since 2002. Nothing worthy of massive praise. It's also worth noting that EqBRR is not simply a measure of baserunning smarts and a team of speedy runners would likely perform well despite having a collective "low baseball IQ", as they like to say.
Next up is defense, as measured by UZR and DER (defensive efficiency ratio):
| Year | UZR | AL Rank | DER | AL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 41.2 | 2 | .719 | 1 |
| 2003 | 38.4 | 3 | .703 | 2 |
| 2004 | -7.3 | 10 | .687 | 7 |
| 2005 | 24.5 | 6 | .702 | 6 |
| 2006 | -14.2 | 10 | .692 | 5 |
| 2007 | -2.0 | 6 | .679 | 11 |
| 2008 | 0.9 | 8 | .692 | 5 |
| 2009 | 11.6 | 5 | .689 | 8 |
Again, nothing here jumps off the page, except for the 2002-2003 years. Defensive performance is mostly dependent on players (although coaches have a say in positioning) but I see nothing here showing that the Scioscia Angels have been defensive standouts.
Last, I looked at actual record vs. Pythagorean record. This measure is dependent on many factors, including luck, but it's a basic way of determining if a team under- or overachieved. A positive number implies overachievement, for instance an actual record of 86-76 with a Pythag record of 80-82 would be +6:
| Year | Actual vs. Pythag |
|---|---|
| 2002 | -2 |
| 2003 | -3 |
| 2004 | +1 |
| 2005 | +2 |
| 2006 | +5 |
| 2007 | +4 |
| 2008 | +12 |
| 2009 | +5 |
Recent Scioscia teams have outperformed their Pythag. It seems unfair to solely credit a manager for this, but it is also unfair to chalk it up entirely to luck.
In conclusion, I'll draw no conclusion. Ultimately, a manager has a limited impact on his team's performance. The goal, as far as game management goes, is to not do anything stupid, like pinch-hitting with a gimpy Cliff Floyd in Game 7 of the 2006 ALCS or calling in Omir Santos from the bullpen to pinch-hit for Ramon Castro. Maybe Scioscia is a great leader, a man adept at pushing his players to maximum effort. I can't definitively speak to that, nor do I follow the Angels on a regular enough basis to adequately assess his in-game management and player development skills. I suspect most Met fans do not watch Scioscia enough to know if he's good at his job either. What I do know is he's made some ridiculous high-profile mistakes: pinch-hitting Gary Matthews Jr. for Mike Napoli in Game 2 of this year's ALCS and calling for a suicide squeeze in the 9th inning of the 2008 ALDS come to mind. Maybe it's unfair to judge a manager on a handful of boneheaded decisions, but moves like these reek of a Jerry Manuel-esque desire to graffiti a game with a "Scioscia was here" tag.
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23 comments
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Comments
Good points
Scioscia (like most “good” managers) is definitely overrated.
But I must say, no one stares down a home plate umpire with (justified) disgust quite like Scioscia. Bobby Cox likes the cut of that man’s jib.
by Bieser's Balk on Oct 21, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
even the best managers may not help that much
but can we at least get a consensus that Joe Girardi is a terrible manager? Maybe not quite Jerry terrible, but definitely not good. If the Yankees lose this year, I have a hunch it’s gonna be his fault
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Oct 21, 2009 2:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i agree with the first part of your comment.
i have a hunch it’ll be the fault of baseball players.
by letsgocyclones on Oct 21, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
except the Yankees are miles ahead of any other team in terms of talent
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 21, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt::Scioscia as Stark::Rollins
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 21, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One explanation as to why Scioscia is so great
The radiation poisoning suffered as a worked at the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant gave him super managerial powers.
by Reg Dunlop on Oct 21, 2009 6:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Darrrrryllllllll
Darrrrrryllllllll
by James Kannengieser on Oct 21, 2009 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitt. The. Elder.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 21, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
PITT. THE. ELDER!
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 21, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you better than me?
I don’t know you but… yes.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
by Kevin H on Oct 22, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mattingly! I thought I told you to shave those sideburns!
You’re off the team!
by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 22, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure these numbers have anything to do with anything
but I wonder how many other managers have been in the top 10 in their leagues in EqBRR and UZR every year from 2002-2009 and have been overall +24 in Actual v. Pythag over the same period. Just out of curiosity. For what it’s worth, he’s never really seemed bad to me. Occasional mistakes, yes, but nothing that screams “moron”.
by Joamiq on Oct 23, 2009 5:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
or Girardi
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 23, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we can all agree
that while Scioscia love is annoying he is a better manager than what we have
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 24, 2009 7:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
a dead puppy is better than what we have
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 24, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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