There’s little sense blocking Davis by signing a first baseman to a multi-year deal. I’m told the Mets likely will trade for a righty-hitting first baseman with a short-term commitment to pair with Daniel Murphy in 2010.
via MetsBlog via Adam Rubin
over 2 years ago
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I agree, the Mets should trade
for a young player to platoon at first. Maybe he should also be able to play a corner OF spot when he eventually has to make way for Davis. Perhaps the Mets can trade for a guy that had a .987 OPS in AA/AAA last year against LHP and also has a .872 OPS in limited PAs against LHP at the major league level in his career. Where we could possibly find a player like this and what it would cost us I wouldnt know.
Some guy sitting on the Mets bench swore that he fits that description...
Must have been like the bat boy or something…. crazy fella.
by boom_roasted on Oct 28, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
WE HAVE NO GUY ON THE ROSTER ALREADY THAT FITS THAT DESCRIPTION!!!
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 28, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
nick who?
no met that i know of was ever used in that situation
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 28, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
There is no such person. Jerry Manuel wouldn't ignore players or anything like that.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 28, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
what was his name?
Evan Nicholas or something?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 28, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the one thing about Minaya and Manuel that really angers me
It’s one thing if you don’t have the talent on the team to compete, worse if you can’t find the talent from elsewhere, but it is inexcusable to have the talent right under your nose and misuse it or fail to use it at all.
by TheBigStapler on Oct 28, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Aghh!
and I just get more frustrated the more I ponder it. I’ll concede that maybe Evans isn’t the answer but the team had the perfect no-risk opportunity to find out last September but insisted on fielding Tatis and Sullivan instead.
by TheBigStapler on Oct 28, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Its really incredible just how little the Mets did in September to plan for 2010
Luis Castillo playing in every game when all of a sudden Murphy’s looking like an infielder with respectable range and hands. If he’s not playing winter ball this year, and he wasn’t going to be given a chance at second in September, it looks like that idea has either been blanked from memory somehow or simply dismissed.
Fernando Tatis getting 60+ PAs, Evans getting fewer than 20. Where is the utility in that? He was already pretty comfortably a Type B, and they might not even offer him arb anyway. Meanwhile, the team has needs this offseason at the same positions Evans plays. Wouldn’t it be useful to get as much information as possible so you can know what kind of platoon split would be tolerable for a left handed addition? And this ties in with Castillo/Murphy too. With Murphy playing 2B, the team would have needed both a 1B and LF, so especially against lefties, you can play both Evans and Tatis. Or you could go with Tatis and Sullivan, that’s an intimidating duo.
Brian Schneider playing, period, with Josh Thole on the roster. Yeah, lets not do everything we can to get a look at the catcher who would cost a few hundred thousand, instead spend at least twice that much, and still likely wind up with Omir Santos half the time. And instead, watch a guy who almost certainly won’t be around next year and appears to have little to offer anyway.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
to be fair
schneider got 22 abs in sept/oct compaired to 46 for thole… and you prob dont want your very young catcher playing too much (its a long season already for him)…
but everything else, yeah… jerry sucks.
Bah
Thole caught 89 games in Bingo. 16 in the majors brought him to 105, which is a lot, but not so much that he couldn’t have caught at least a few more. They sent him straight to winterball anyway. He’s already played 14 games in the VWL and hit well, meaning he had a week off at most.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
All of what you said is why everyone with a brain wanted Jerry and Omar fired.
I blogged the absurdity of Nick Evans season last week. The central idea holds true for Daniel Murphy as well. I hope Minaya and Manuel are caught funneling money from the team, or something. I know they do that already, but I mean illegally.
www.twitter.com/willDavidian
by All Shook Down on Oct 28, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought this was the first time ANYONE considered a near MLB prospect in offseason moves.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Adam Rubin has lobby for righty first baseman
Sorry, I just can’t let the joke go.
by Andrew McCarthy on Oct 28, 2009 5:10 PM EDT reply actions
Figures he'd do something like that
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 28, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
There Is Something....
…. in sabermetrics called the “defensive spectrum” that goes like this:
DH, 1B, LF, RF, 3B, CF, 2B, SS
Daniel Murphy was a 3B in the minors but, of course, that position was filled. They tried him in LF, where, we all have to agree, he had a little trouble. Then he was moved to 1B, where he seemed to play his best defense.
Okay, we’re all set on that. Now, take a look at the positions Murphy has played, then take a look at the defensive spectrum. With the defensive spectrum, position moves to the left are easier to make than to the right. Catcher is a unique position and so is pitcher so they are not included in the spectrum. Moving a player to the right along the spectrum doesn’t usually work. History has shown, for example, that LF’es being moved to 3B has failed a vast majority of the time.
So here we have Murphy who had trouble in LF and did okay at 1B. Now you want to move him to 2B. Look at the spectrum. 1B to 2B is a huge rightward shift in the spectrum. Go look through history to see how many times that big of a jump from one position to another has happened and worked. I will guess right now that it is very rare. Craig Biggio, for example, was sort of a rarity as he went from C to CF to 2B but I think being a C helped him in this regard. He was a very mobile, athletic C. Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum are tough and the farther right the shift, the more difficult it is.
Conclusion: Daniel Murphy is not a 2B. When the Mets tried to do this over the winter, how did it turn out? Just because one might be mobile and have good hands at 1B doesn’t mean that will transfer to 2B. The turning of the double play alone would be difficult to handle. Also, looking at Murphy, he doesn’t seem to have the physical attributes to be a good 2B. He doesn’t look quick enough and his movements at 1B aren’t really that smooth. He could learn to be an above-average 1B. He will never be a 2B.
Please stop doing this to yourselves, you Met fans that want Murphy at 2B. Please stop doing this to Murphy, too. He’s not that good at 1B. How in the heck can he even be passable as a 2B? Be reasonable.
Thanks.
"We praise or blame as one or the other affords more opportunity for exhibiting our power of judgment." Friedrich Nietzsche, "Human,All Too Human" (1878)
I see what you're saying
but the fact is that the defensive spectrum isn’t set in stone. Kelly Johnson is an example of a LF holding his own at 2nd base and this year Skip Schumaker was converted from a corner OF to second. While the early results were poor, Schumaker vastly improved with a UZR of -0.7 from May 17th on. There’s exceptions to every rule. With that being said pretty much everyone here at AA realize that Murphy probably can’t play second base; however, the Mets had no reason this past Sept. to not having Murphy prove the latter at the ML level since what he has shown is that his bat is very unlikey to be worth it at 1st base.
2B is also the most convoluted of the positions, defensively.
To be honest, you don’t really need much of an arm, or great range. I’d actually argue that 3rd base is the harder position to play, and I actually think CF is already considered harder than 2B on defensive spectrums. The only real skill unique to 2B is the ability to turn double plays. The fact that Dan Uggla can play 2nd base is proof unto itself.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Totally agree
I’ve played all the infield positions in my life and I’ve always disagreed with the defensive spectrum. 3B is definitely harder to play. I think it requires a more varied skill set.
by DannyMetsGeek on Oct 29, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I always took the defensive spectrum to mean more about how much opportunity a player might have to prevent runs from a particular position, rather than how much talent is necessarily required to play that position.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree and for all the reasons you list
But to play the devil’s advocate, it’s not like he’s been in the majors very long. The argument for 2B is that he is still searching for his position. If he’s an average 3B, he may be an above average 1B (this appears to be true already) and he may be a below average 2B. It may be better for the team to pair his hitting ability with 2B where he is worse so that we can stick a much better hitter at 1B rather than have Murphy remain at 1B and sacrifice the opportunity to improve the offense overall.
by TheBigStapler on Oct 28, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
If you go on the simplification that his bat playing 1B = his bat playing 2B = his bat playing 3B, then unless he was 15 runs worse at 2B defensively than he was at 1B, he would be more valuable at 2B, since there’s a 15 run difference in positional adjustment between the two positions. Given his UZR/150 of 5.2, that means that if he was better than -9.8 UZR/150 2B, he would be more valuable at 2B than 1B.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
he was actually pretty good at 1st
we don’t really know how good he was at 3rd, since he never played it in the majors. And though it’s to the left of 2B, I don’t really think you can necessarily compare the outfield to the infield. I know it’s not a perfect example, but in high school I was a very good defensive 3rd basemen – I had a great arm, quick reflexes, and decent range. I was also good at 2nd. I was terrible in the outfield, though – I wasn’t very fast, and for some reason I always had a tough time judging fly balls (even as an infielder, pop ups were my least favorite plays by far. Give me a screamer down the line any day). Murphy always seemed like he had good range, he was just a little awkward and badly misplayed a few fly ball/line drives in the outfield, which doesn’t really tell you much about how he’d be at 2nd. Why not at least let him play a little bit there, to see how he does?
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
TotalZone has him as just about average at 3B in his minor league career
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I think this argument was relevant in April, and I strongly advocated it against people who thought Murph could be instant 2B upgrade
But in September, when there was nothing to lose, the issue is a different animal. We don’t know how good he was at 3B or 2B, he played those positions in the minors and in winter ball, respectively. What’s the harm in trying it when nothing else is on the line aside from perhaps gaining some information that could help the team in the following season, when things mattered again?
Also, UZR graded Murph as firmly above average at 1B, in fact he was one of the best in either league rating a 5.2 UZR/150.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought the Mets had already given up on Murphy at 2nd as of the last AFL
hadn’t they?
Since his slugging was coming around, if you’ve already given up on playing him there in the AFL, why risk an injury? 2bman, especially inexperienced 2bman, get hurt a lot. It’s a wearing position and It’’s enormously unlikely that Murphy was suddenly going to figure out how to play 2nd by watching Luis Castillo play it all year. If you think he has a shot a becoming an averge hitter and above average 1bman, why disrupt his learning curve for the longest of long shots?
by SeanSchirmer on Oct 30, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Is that really a concern though?
I mean, if the premise is the assumption that Murphy will be a long term solution at 1B, then fine. But that premise seems incredibly flawed at this stage. Murphy is never going to be an average offensive first baseman, and its unlikely he’ll be average as the complete package even with a 5.2 UZR/150. Impossible? No, but especially considering 1B is one of the few positions where the Mets have some alternate and likely soon to be superior options in the system, I think risking injury in the short-term is worth the long-term payoff of opening Murphy up to as many positions as possible. His value would be hugely inflated just as he hit arbitration, and the team could probably get a much more directly useful piece in return.
I do agree with the idea that 2B is a physically deteriorating position, however. I just don’t think letting him get in 10-15 games in September was that big a risk. If he was clearly awkward and unnatural, then at least you have that information.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 30, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a reasonable position to take,
but if Murphy is going to be given a shot as a 2bman it has to be done starting in the instructional league. You cannot throw a guy out there and ask him to play the most complex defensive position on the diamond and in so doing risk serious injury. If it’s 10 to 1 against Murphy hitting well enough to be a ML 1bman, it’s 500 to 1 that he’s going to field well enough to play 2b. He’s already a good corner back up and could start at 3b on a dozen clubs in the majors. That has value, and I want my team to value its players and treat them professionally. By all means give Murphy a shot at 2b (although I believe the Mets have already decided he can’t do it), but don’t do it in a way that completely unnecessarily jeopardizes the value he does have. Give him four months of rigorous training in the offseason, if you want. Let him start a months worth of B games in spring training. Then make a decision.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 15, 2009 8:45 AM EST up reply actions
He DOESN'T have a chance to be an above average first baseman.
At best, he’s a capable starter. Most likely, he’s not good enough to start for ANY team.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Also
Its not like Luis Castillo has been a defensive wizard. In fact he’s been awful. Murphy might be awful as well, but if his awfulness is comparably awful to Castillo’s awfulness, the difference between the two becomes about offense. Even assuming Castillo produces another .380 OBP season, Murphy clearly as superior power, and at the very least, would provide an interesting level of flexibility. I should be clear, if I had to guess, I do not think Murphy would be capable of being much more than a 1-1.5 WAR 2B at best, but that’s what Castillo is anyway at this point in his career.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm surprised you're that pessimistic about Murphy at 2B
He’s shown good athleticism at 1B and his range and routes were pretty good in LF. If anything, he’s error prone with iffy hands. I’d be willing to bet on Murphy performing within 3 runs above or below average at 2B.
www.twitter.com/willDavidian
by All Shook Down on Oct 28, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe you're right
I’m certainly more open to the idea of Murphy as something resembling average at 2B than I was before I’d ever seen him play an infield position. He certainly seems more comfortable ranging on grounders than he did roaming on flyballs. I think part of it is his height and wingspan, which to me have always seemed a bit disproportionate. Second base is generally easier for shorter players (Murphy’s 6’2") and his wingspan appears below average for his size (though I don’t have any facts to back that up, its pure perceptual guesswork), which could be problematic for getting down on balls. But I was definitely surprised by the smoothness of his actions at 1B as opposed to in the outfield or even running the bases, so I suppose its possible he could be pretty adequate.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
i think murphs biggest problem at first in my eyes was he would sometimes range too far to get to balls
He has great reflexes and a quick first step, which actually sometimes prove to be detrimental because they pull him so far off of the bag at first. I’ve seen him cut off balls the 2nd baseman should have for an easy put out and then have to scramble back to first to get. This suggests to me he would have pretty good range at second, and benefit from a position where he’d have the SS behind him to cover those plays where he ranges a long way, instead of the pitcher covering. I don’t think i’d like to see him start next season there, but I think if we had seen him play there last year he would have surprised a lot of us.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
In general, the Mets would do well to plan without Daniel Murphy existing, such to bolster the team's depth.
The Mets are going to be caught with their pants down if Murphy posts a .740 OPS and Davis struggles in AAA, neither of which are much of a stretch. Omar plans like a crack fiend, so this course of action shouldn’t surprise anyone.
www.twitter.com/willDavidian
Yes....
…. Daniel Murphy will never be that good of a player, that’s my honest opinion.
He’s a “tweener”, not enough offense for 1B, not enough defense for the OF let alone 2B. I think Kelly Johnson and Skip Schumaker are probably more athletic than Murphy.
3B isn’ t harder to play than 2B. 3B is more of a reflexive position with the additional responsibility of playing bunts, short-handedly speaking. 2B has more responsibilities, including cutoffs and turning the double play. That’s important. Uggla might not be that good of a 2B but he is more of a 2B than Murphy as he has played the position longer and has enough athleticism to be able to hold his own there. You can’t teach a player athleticism and the major leagues shouldn’t be a training ground for someone like Murphy. I think the Mets would do him a disservice if they tried him at 2B at the major-league level— the guy has gone through enough.
The Mets hyped Murphy up too much and there are some people that bought the hype, or they got themselves hyped-up over 100 or so at-bats. Murphy’s future, in my opinion, is as a back-up player, pinch-hitting and playing 1B against right-handed pitchers. If he has a modest career that will be more than I expect.
I’m sorry, I don’t think he’s that good. But people seem to like him, sort of like Francoeur, so he might hand around awhile.
"We praise or blame as one or the other affords more opportunity for exhibiting our power of judgment." Friedrich Nietzsche, "Human,All Too Human" (1878)
So then whats the harm in testing him in meaningless games?
In general, I agree, you don’t push a player to an uncomfortable defensive position at the ML level. But when you’re already mathematically eliminated in September, everything should be about the following season. So what’s the harm in trying him at 2B? Again, he’d have to be 15 defensive runs worse as a 2B than a 1B to even break even. With a 5.2 UZR/150 at 2B, that means that if he were a -9.8 UZR at 2B, he would be equally as valuable as a 2B and 1B. That’s pretty terrible defense, but having the utility of a super-utility guy who can fill in at a position like 2B if need be and provide some kind of positive value is more useful than a guy who can only fill in at 1B and 3B occasionally and provide negligible offensive value.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
What do you mean ?.
We played meaningful games this September. Please don’t break Jeff’s heart by saying otherwise.
hah
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Whoops
With a 5.2 UZR/150 at 2B
should read “with a 5.2 UZR/150 at 1B”
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
how would it be a disservice to him?
everyone knows he’s not the 1st baseman of the future – he has a very short shelf-life at first. Trying him at second signals that maybe, if he’s not awful, he has a future as a starter for the Mets.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
ok well beyond evans, who could this be?
a righty who isn’t signed long-term and can play first:
Jorge Cantu – beat up the Mets this year and Omar reportedly liked him at the deadline; he’s relatively cheap
Paul Konerko – probably the best hitter of the bunch but he’s owed $12M and has a no-trade
Mark DeRosa – may cost a multi-year deal in FA but he can play all over
Dan Uggla – definitely provides power but can he play anywhere on the field (-10.5 UZR @ 2nd)?
"Mark DeRosa – may cost a multi-year deal in FA but he can play all over"
BADLY. He can play all over BADLY.
And he should also be the prototype for how the Mets handle Murphy
The only positions DeRo can really play well are COF (an example of how the defensive spectrum can be misleading, he’s a miserable infielder and particularly terrible at 1B, though its a limited sample, its by far his weakest position by career UZR/150). If Murphy can fake 2B and the COF positions reasonably well and play a solid 1B, he’d at least build up some trade value that’s much higher than his actual value, meaning he’d be a great sell high candidate as he entered his arb years.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 28, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
agree completely
i’ve felt for a while that the best role for murphy in 2010 would be a super-sub where he bounces around the field (1st, 3rd, COF & in my dreams 2B) and gets 300-400 ab’s.
but for whatever reason they will NOT give him a shot at second.
by Rob Castellano on Oct 29, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you, with one exception
I do think he’ll likely get more at least 400 ABs unless someone like Chris Carter or Lucas Duda rake, because he’ll likely spend the first few months as the fairly regular 1B, at least until Ike Davis or someone else better shows up. But if Ike Davis is ready by, say, June, to be a significantly better player than Murphy, what’s Murph’s role if he’s strictly a left handed first baseman with limited power? He’d be a waste of roster space unless he can fill in elsewhere.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 29, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
except
that A) the Mets think he’s a good enough hitter to hold down a job at 1B, and B) the Mets have no understanding of the concept of selling high
The front office hypes players for trade value or whathaveyou, and then falls for their own lies
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 29, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, hopefully by the time Murph gets to arbitration
There will be a different FO in place!
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 29, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
a couple more options to keep in mind
garrett atkins
ryan garko
both hit lefties well, both figure to be butchers at first and both had pretty down years so they’ll probably be non-tendered/cheap
these 2 and cantu seem like the most likely options to me.
by Rob Castellano on Oct 29, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Typo....
…. “so he might hang around awhile.” Sorry.
"We praise or blame as one or the other affords more opportunity for exhibiting our power of judgment." Friedrich Nietzsche, "Human,All Too Human" (1878)
Nick Evans and the Small Sample Size Problem
Evans’ monster numbers v LHPs at AA and AAA occurred in all of 172 ABs, and his MLE OPS v LHP in AAA last year was .701. Starting 2010 w Evans as your platoon 1bman v lefties is riskier than giving the full time job to Daniel Murphy was in 2009.
Good teams get real platoon players as part of a plan. Bad teams stick anyone there who’s had a few good ABs because they don’t think it through and understand what’s necessary.
How about career .934 minor league OPS vs. lefties in 500+ PAs?
park/luck neutralized to .908, all in ARL appropriate leagues? I think your latter axiom here is flawed. Good teams correctly identify players who cost little and can provide quality production. Is it worth it to spend an extra million bucks plus just for a bit more security from a part time player?
The way I see it is Evans:
a. Has above average raw power
b. Makes an above average amount of contact vs. lefties
c. Is more apt to draw walks vs. lefties
The career minor league numbers support all three of these. Combine them, and you have a very reasonable platoon righty batter. If he whiffed at a 30% rate against lefties, it’d be one thing, but he doesn’t. And that allows him to make use of his raw power, and the walks are a good indication that he does see the ball better and also a nice means of stabilizing production.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 30, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
It's even worse
in that Evans’ ENTIRE minor league career against lefties, translated as MLE, is .701. What you are neutralizing are pretty minor league numbers, but his MLE’s, since we’re interested in what Evans will do in the major leagues, are extremely poor.
Evans was good, not great, in 110 ML PAs v. lefties. He was worse against lefties last year than he was in 2008, only average for a 1bman. Evans as a very raw platoon partner isn’t Plan A for a large-market club. He and Murphy are who you turn to when your starter gets hurt. He’s the guy who has a lot to prove before you plan to have him start 40 or 50 times a year, and even if Evan’s is your starter against lefties, he sure as hell is not the guy you want as your full time first basemen when Murphy misses a month, or even a week.
Nick Evans should never again face a right-handed pitcher in the major leagues.
by SeanSchirmer on Oct 30, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
but he should continue to face lefties unless he proves he can't.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
But isn't a taking an entire minor leaguer's career
And putting an MLE OPS over .700 really a good thing? Jason Heyward’s career MLE OPS is .645. Evan Longoria’s career MLE was .706. If Nick Evans can be Jason Heyward or Evan Longoria except just against LHP, that’s fine with me.
As for Evans starting for a month, what about Ike Davis? Chris Carter? Either one could play the lefty half of a platoon role, and probably be pretty similar to Murphy right away. Its not as if there aren’t reasonable replacements from the left side to begin with.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 31, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Having something to prove
Being a large market has nothing to do with the budget the team is working under this offseason. If they had $60 million committed and $160 mil as a payroll ceiling, that’d be one thing. But as it stands, despite being a large market team with one of the highest payrolls in baseball, we’ve seen every offseason, the Mets aren’t the Yankees. They have some kind of budget restriction, and almost certainly won’t get within $10 million of the luxury tax. If having to drop a sizable chunk of change on a part time player means the difference between Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, that money spent would essentially be money wasted.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 31, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely. As long as it's in Buffalo
or from the bench. The Mutts’s budget is going to be stretched this year so if Evans, when he’s on the 25-man at the ML minimum, is a righty ph and backup to a real 1bman who takes an occasional day off against LHP, and can field well enough to be the 5th/6th OFer, I can live with that.
But there’s just no way I would go into the season writing in 250 PAs for a player with Evans’s MLEs. He’s not the plan. He’s the backup plan. I’m happy to admit that as backup plans go he’s not bad at all.
But calling out his .700 MLE OPS for his career is actually pointing out a strength
A few more significant career minor league MLE OPSes:
Ryan Braun: .710
Jay Bruce: .732
Andrew McCutchen: .596 (.710 vs. LHP, .923 OPS vs. LHP in majors this year)
When you neutralize A-ball stats to major league standards, the results are never going to be pretty, because no one in A-ball hits .400 / .500 / .700.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 31, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Also
Just for the record. Daniel Murphy’s minor league career MLE OPS vs. RHP: .634. By your logic, it seems the Mets have a larger problem in this theoretical platoon than Evans.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 31, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough.
I’ll do some more research. Honestly—I’d love to see a home grown guy like Evans suceed in at least a starting platoon role.
Keep in mind Evans has not been particularly impressive in his MLE’s against AA and AAA pitchers.
His MLEs against LHP in 2009 AA and AAA: .241/.308/.482/.790
His MLEs against LHP in 2008 AA only: .274/.337/.484.821
Oddly enough, and it’s certainly promising, his best numbers at the three highest levels are in the majors:
Major League stats vs LHP, 2008 and 2009:.320/.382/.490/.872
That his minor league and major league numbers against lefties are worse in 2009 than they were in 2008 is a concern.
I do think the Mets have more pressing needs than getting Evans off the 25-man roster, and on a well-constructed ballclub there’s certainly room for a guy like Evans. My concerns, in order of priority, highest to lowest, are:
1) Find a well above average, durable starter
2) Find an excellent LFer or RF or 1Bman
3) Find a durable starter, with a Jason Marquis type the minimum alternative
4) Find a legitimate starting catcher. Santos is at best a backup
5) Find a major league average or better OFer or 1Bman for the spot not filled by 2).
6) Replace Luis Castillo at 2b, otherwise live with him
7) If not addressed in 2 or 4 above, find a better option at 1b than the guys we currently have on the 40-man roster. Otherwise, live with them.
As for Murphy’s MLEs, or any major leaguer’s MLEs, those numbers become less and less significant the more time that player spends hitting against major league pitching. Danny has 707 PAs against major league pitching. His MLE’s are largely irrelevant at this point.
While that's true about Murphy
It wasn’t a year ago, as Evans is actually a year younger than Murphy. The thing about MLE’s is they’re not projection. For prospects, as in non-veteran minor leaguers, you expect MLE’s to improve in the upper levels, since the conversion factor is smaller, if they’re performing as well in Triple-A as in A-ball, the Triple-A MLE is going to be stronger. Almost every major leaguer is going to have stronger MLE’s from Triple-A and Double-A than A-ball. Its just the nature of the MLE function.
As far as Murphy is concerned, I agree with your point in a way, but at the same time, his MLE’s a year ago were no less relevant than Evans’ are now, and being that Evans is about a year younger, and his platoon half MLE is much stronger, he seems like a better fit as half of a platoon. He does have more raw power than Murphy, though his approach and plate discipline clearly lag.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 31, 2009 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Word,
this and your points above regarding MLEs are very true. BPro has peak projections that use MLE and their own calculation whose methdology is, of course, not available. Anyways based on Nick Evans Bingo numbers, his current projected peak is .262/.331/.505/.836 and his peak using his horrible AAA numbers is .232/.312/.506/818 (This is like a patented Dave Kingman triple slash.) Considering his platoon split, Evans seems like he has the skills to be useful and just looking at his MLE without context is flawed.


























