Howard > A-Rod?!?!?!?!?
Neyer linked to a WS preview by Philly Daily News writer Bill Conlin. Conlin compared the teams the "right way," by matching the players up by their position in the batting order.
Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary (.296 OBP), Conlin thinks Jeter and Rollins are even.
And apparently Howard is better than A-Rod because he won a ring or something like that.
23 days ago
boom_roasted
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It's funny
because he lays out the “tale of the tape”, so to speak, and then proceeds to pick a winner at random. Howard > Rodriguez but Rollins = Jeter? Both are clearly wrong, but the Rollins/Jeter one is by far the wronger of the two. Howard is a very good hitter who isn’t as good as Rodriguez, while Rollins is a mediocre hitter who isn’t even in the same multiverse as Jeter.
Jeter: 7.4 WAR in 2009
Rollins: 2.4 WAR in 2009
Rodriguez: 4.6 WAR in 2009 (despite missing all of April)
Howard: 4.9 WAR in 2009
by Eric Simon on Oct 28, 2009 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One year of WAR is basically meaningless when comparing two players
If you take a 5-4-3 average of both Jeter’s and Rollins’ past three season, you get 5 WAR for Jeter and 4.6 WAR for Rollins. Given that Rollins is much younger than Jeter and is more likely to keep up this pace, it’s not outlandish to say he is as good or better than Jeter going forward.
Howard vs. Rodriguez is obviously indefensible.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 28, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But is there an exception
when someone posts such an anemic OBP? Yes, he has been incredibly unlucky with a .251 BABIP, but Rollins has been awful this season.
by boom_roasted on Oct 28, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But is there an exception when someone posts such an anemic OBP?
No, absolutely not. There is no evidence that a down year should be given any more weight that others, unless it’s the most recent, which it was, hence I gave it more weight.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 28, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But could it be a sign that Rollins could be rapidly declining?
It wouldn’t be surprising for a player at a physically demanding position like shortstop to go through a rapid decline as he enters his 30s.
by boom_roasted on Oct 28, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
especially when he was really never that good anyway
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Math-wise
I’ve got 5.3 WAR for Jetes, 4.4 WAR for Rollins, so that’s almost a win difference. If Jeter has actually taken a step forward in his defense (he claims to have worked on moving to his left over the offseason) it would ease his decline.
It’s still fair to say that Jeter was a shitload better than Rollins this season. What that means for their relative probabilities of performance this postseason, well, it’s only (a maximum of) seven games, so as usual randomness will decide who history remembers to be the more clutch performer this time around.
by Eric Simon on Oct 28, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
please don't use the term "Jetes" again.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Oct 30, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cap'n America?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 30, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not really sure the age argument favors Rollins in this case
If Rollins at 30 is comparable at Jeter at 35, even by a 5-4-3 weighted projection, doesn’t that simply say that career Rollins peak is comparable to Jeter’s declining years, rather than that Rollins is a better player to have moving forward than Jeter?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Oct 29, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if you have two players who have performed at comparable levels
And one is 5 years younger, he is more likely to continue to hit at that level. Jeter’s peak was better than Rollins’, but that isn’t really important to who is better going forward.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 29, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But then your argument relies on the premise that Jeter is declining at a greater rate
Which I suppose is a plausible on age alone, but particularly in terms of offense, this really doesn’t seem to be a valid assumption. Rollins had a very distinct peak in 2007 that was, at least offensively, like one of Jeter’s above average but not career pacing seasons. He’s gotten worse in each subsequent season. By contrast, Jeter is coming off his best offensive season since 2006, during which time he did decline a bit in 2007 and 2008, but of the three, the worst was 2008, the only truly “poor” offensive year Jeter had, and a year in which still had a higher wOBA than Rollins’ career mark.
So then the argument comes down to defense, and assuming that Jeter’s career defensive season this year was as much of an aberration as Rollins’ defensive dropoff was. Rollins posted a negative RngR this year for the first time since 2004. Jeter had a positive RngR for the first time since 2002. If those numbers flip back to the career trends pre-2009, then the two even out a bit in overall value, and maybe you can make a case for favoring Rollins. But if Rollins doesn’t regain defensive wizardry, or Jeter maintains whatever improvement he appeared to make this year, I do think Jeter still projects quite a bit better offensively, and enough so that its tough to make a case that Rollins is going to be the better player moving forward. Rollins’ production is almost all based on his athleticism. He hits for power, he runs well, and plays good defense. Jeter may not do any of those things quite as well (though he did play better defense this year), but he wins in most other departments, including ability to get on base via walk and pitch selection, which are much more sustainable skills for older players than those Rollins relies on. Rollins entirely relies on things like batspeed and footspeed for production, while Jeter has skills that allow him to buffer such losses. The marginal hit on Rollins’ production through natural athletic decline is greater.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Oct 29, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say that they are comparable players.
I got the same weighted WAR numbers as Eric: 5.3 Jeter, 4.4 Rollins.
Rollins WAR numbers since 2002 show a clear peak in 2007 and he has been declining since. Jeter has been all over the place. There is not much proof that he is in a “decline stage” of his career.
True, Rollins is much younger than Jeter, but he is still on the wrong side of 30. As Meddler mentioned above, they are different types of players. It wouldn’t be shocking for a player of Rollins/Reyes type that relies on athleticism to decline before and at a faster pace than a player of Jeter’s type.
I made a crude spreadsheet with the WAR data for some reason:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tGaKpnljRe3W9l4t3wyioiA&output=html
by boom_roasted on Oct 29, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
isn't this all irrelevant though?
I mean, the question is how they’re going to perform over the next two weeks, not how they’re going to perform over the next four years, so isn’t looking at weighted-average WAR in order to predict likely decline rate somewhat unnecessary?
by JoshNY on Oct 29, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can't really project how a player is going play over the next two weeks.
There are many peaks and valleys in a player’s performance over a season. Who knows if a player will have a good 7 games, a bad 7 games, or a rather normal 7 games?
The purpose of Conlin’s article (I think) is to point out which player is better over each position in the batting order. 3-year weighted WAR is one of the better way to do this.
by boom_roasted on Oct 29, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but then what's the point of this conversation?
Pedro Feliz could easily have a better World Series than ARod
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Oct 29, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Victorino > Damon?
and pretty much solely b/c Victorino stole more bases? How does that makes sense – especially considering Damon was 12 for 12 for a team that doesn’t steal that frequently.
Ugh, this kind of “analysis” is just so, so bad. How do people get any kind of enjoyment from reading this?
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Oct 28, 2009 6:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I am surprised that Conlin is still around.
Guy’s been hacktacular for as long as I can remember, not to mention his ridiculous HoF voting policy.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 28, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
saw this in the comments:
“Great, great piece by the best baseball writer in America, in my lifetime anyway. Bravo! Especially enjoyed the synopsis on Jay Worth. “Breakthrough Bomber”, “Clutch”. I hear you."
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Oct 28, 2009 6:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i can't tell if that's sarcastic.
it almost certainly is, but i could definitely see that being serious.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha Teixeira better than Utley
go ahead diss your one good player!
by Sam Page on Oct 28, 2009 7:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know right
The ONE that EASILY goes in the Phillies favor he gets wrong. This is the reason I can’t hate Utely, his own fanbase underrates him, many thinking he’s the third best on the team.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 29, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
people are morons.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hey if they Phils dont appreciate him we'd gladly take him off their hands
It shocks me how little phillies fans seem to care about this guy compared to some of their other less talented players.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe b/c he's actually good
they like gritty underdogs.
In a way though, I guess I get it. To a lot of fans, Mookie Wilson is the enduring symbol of the ’86 Mets, not way better players like Strawberry or Keith.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Oct 29, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mookie is a symbol because of Game 6
I’d doubt you could find anyone who actually thinks he was a better player than Strawberry.
by yellomellojello on Oct 29, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is kind of the opposite situation
its not that they’ve picked a symbol, its that they ignore a player. Utley seems like an afterthought to a lot of Phils fans, whereas nobody thought that about Keith or Straw. Maybe its just my perception from the outside, but it seems like Phillies fans dont really appreciate what this guy brings to their team.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Howard is more of a personality...
Howard is in commercials, he’s affable in interviews, he’s always smiling and seemingly having a good time, he does the little “I got all of that” pose after he knows he just crushed one and SportsCenter plays it over and over, etc etc etc.
Utley is kind of boring – You never see any flash whatsoever. He’s just a guy that goes out, plays hard, quietly produces, and stays away from the limelight.
And I think that’s where this perception comes into play where people think that Howard is the better player, or even think that the true Phillies fans would say the same thing.
But the reality is… If you ask ANY true Phillies fan if they had do a Sophie’s Choice thing (if they had to choose between losing Howard or losing Utley), Howard would go, period. And that’s not to take anything away from Howard at all – When you’ve put up at least 45 homers and 136 RBI in every full season of your career and have an MVP to your credit, you’re quite clearly one of the best in the game.
“Afterthought” is the wrong term, but I wouldn’t argue if someone were to say we sort of take him for granted.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Howard isn't one of the best in the game
He didn’t deserve his MVP, and never use RsBI when making a case how good a player is. Pujols, Gonzalez, Fielder, Teixeira, Youkilis, Cabrera, and Berkman are all better than Howard, and that’s just first basemen. If you take every position player in the majors, there are probably about 30 who are better than him.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 29, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was just trying to throw out my Utley/Howard theory, and now we’re off on a tangent. Regarding this statement…
If you take every position player in the majors, there are probably about 30 who are better than (Howard).
Not even acknowledging the idiocy of that statement.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you take into account positional adjustments
There are easily 30 players better than Howard.
Yes, he has a shit-ton of power, but he doesn’t really have a great OBP. He plays at a position where offense is easy to find.
by boom_roasted on Oct 29, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh...
I’d love to see that list of 30.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 29, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
check it out, utley #2
helps prove the point
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First of all, there are 26 people ahead of Howard, so you’re 3 4 short.
And… secondly, um… You’re not really serious, are you? I mean… well, you’re not, right?
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not if you count pitchers
I’d say there are at least 4 pitchers who are among the 30 best players in baseball.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Oct 29, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As I said in my other post
Had Reyes, Tulo, Crawford and Braun been healthy for all three years, they’d be ahead of Howard. You’d really take Howard over Reyes?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 29, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't even think of a witty or cruel response or anything really.
Reyes is much much much much much better than Howard and four years younger. The only reason to even consider taking Howard over him is the injuries this past year, but other than that it’s nuts.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 29, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last 4 years - 198 HR's...
Not to oversimplify it, but I guess I’m just a sucker for the longball.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
reyes is a younger all star at a premium position
Putting aside team allegiances for a moment, given how difficult it is to find a shorstop with his fielding and batting skills I think you’d have to take Reyes over Howard given the choice.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
for christ sakes
Nick markakis is almost as good as Howard
and this isn’t dissing Markakis who is a good player, but he’s never talked about on a Howard level
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 29, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha...
Yup, Markakis. Anyone else?
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Markakis is almost as good as Howard and he's younger
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 29, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can you try to back up your Howard reasoning with some facts or something?
Instead of just laughing at every player we bring up. Many of whom are younger, cheaper, and play at a position where offense is harder to find.
by boom_roasted on Oct 29, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's too stupid to argue...
It’s like trying to convince someone that the sky isn’t neon yellow. Ok, gotta go watch the “Big Piece” continue his postseason dominance. See you all tomorrow.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So your excuse for not using facts to support your argument
Is that facts are stupid? Just trying to be clear here…..
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Oct 29, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's like a horrible fantasy football trade offer...
These guys are trying to argue that guys like JJ Hardy (among many, many others) are better than a guy that has averaged 49.5 homers per season (just to be clear, that’s 0.5 shy of 50 per season) over the past 4 years. I have no desire whatsoever to even acknowledge that level of idiocy. It’s not worth even looking up Hardy’s numbers to be 100% sure, it’s not worth giving it a second thought, it’s not worth even typing what I’m tying right now.
It’s like when in a fantasy football league, someone makes you a trade offer… something like Kevin Boss for Adrian Peterson. You don’t explain why you’re rejecting such a ridiculous trade in the comment section, and the thought of a counter-offer doesn’t even enter your brain because the initial offer was so utterly unreasonable in the first place. You just click the “reject trade” button, and move on.
Same concept here… I start hearing names like JJ Hardy, Nick Markakis, Russell Branyan, etc, and I pretty much instantly realize that any possibility of a sane discussion is gone.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 30, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
its not worth looking up the numbers
is that because its not worth risking that we might have a point? I disagree with the Hardy thing (although I still like Helton better and you cant stop me :-P). The problem here is on both sides.. we’re throwing out hyperbole, but you refuse to see the logic in our rational arguments that while howard can mash the ball, his other skills leave something to be desired. HRs are fun, and when combined with the right set of skills they’re a very valuable thing to have a knack for but Ryan Howard is the same as Adam Dunn to me. Below average defense, above average strkeouts, below average OBP and BA, below average speed, but if they hit the ball they hit it a country mile. Thats not to say this isn’t a good thing to have, but it does not make you an MVP.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 30, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, just for fun, I'll look up Hardy's numbers...
And I know you didn’t say Hardy, KeithsMoustache, but let’s take a look at a player that someone tried to argue is better than Howard…
.229 AVG, 11 HR, 53 R, 47 RBI, 0 SB, .302 OBP, .357 SLG, .659 OPS.
I mean… REALLY?!? If someone tried to say Hardy is better than Beltran, would YOU even bother?
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 30, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well no
Because Beltran is many times better than Howard and Hardy.
by boom_roasted on Oct 30, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Beltran's also better than Howard, pretty decidedly.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 30, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
…assuming you have some pretty thick blue and orange shaded glasses.
Anyway, I’m about done here. World Champions.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 30, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Over the past 3 seasons, in which Beltran missed half of 2009
Beltran: 14.5 WAR
Howard: 12.5 WAR
I think you’re the one wearing sunglasses, bro.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 30, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
From 06-08
Beltran: 18.6 WAR
Howard: 14.6 WAR
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 30, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh shit you're right
Howard’s gots the RsBI. Of course, he’s better the Beltran.
by boom_roasted on Oct 30, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha... Don't care
World Champions.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 30, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you mean Champtions
Phillies were only Champions once in 1980.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 30, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Congratulations
And your best player, I would like to remind you, was Chase Utley.
by boom_roasted on Oct 30, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
I love the intellectually stimulating responses, but I still don’t quite get what you are getting at, maybe you can go over it one more time?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 30, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still not quite understanding?
Are you talking about the Lakers? Steelers? Can you clarify for me?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 30, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You were world champtions last year
Now you need to win three more games against a team that is better than you.
by boom_roasted on Oct 30, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup...
And it’ll be fun to watch. I’m glad we have that opportunity again.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 30, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
champtions
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 31, 2009 6:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And he was injured this year
Look, compare last year for instance. It will probably be Hardy’s peak at a player and Howard had a down year but what would rather have?
.283/.343/.478 (.821) 24 home runs, 31 doubles and good defense st shortstop
or
.251/.339/.543 (.881) 48 home runs, 26 doubles and average defense at first base?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 30, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha, REALLY?!? STILL on Hardy?
Unbelievable.
World Champions.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 30, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not the argument.
It’s about Howard, who’s a great player…but debatedly not even the fifth best player on your team. That should make you happy, rather than resorting to this, haha.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 30, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yeah really...
Even with missing 81 games this year he’s a top 15 (14 to be exact) in terms of WAR from 07-09 and was 7th from 06-08. Beltran is already a borderline hall of famer (and if Jim Rice is the standard, he’s easily in) Howard had one excellent season, and three good to very good seasons.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 30, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Howard
Avg: 279, OBP: .360, SLG: .571, OPS: .931
Helton
Avg: .325, OBP: .416, SLG: .489, OPS: .904
Defensively Helton has a much better glove than Howard does.
Despite Howards high slugging, his OPS is pretty much the same as heltons, because the extra hits, walks, and doubles balance out the HR totals. Its not really entirely fair to compare RBIs and Runs because they depend on who hits around them as much as the batter themselves. These numbers are artificially inflated by HRs and don’t take just the individual player into account.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 30, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
JJ Hardy, with his injuries, is an exaggeration.
And I don’t think anyone thinks Branyan’s better than Howard, just that he’s more cost effective (which is true).
In terms of Markakis, he was better than Howard last year pretty decidedly. It would have been smarter to take him over Howard at that time. After this year, though, Howard’s probably established himself as at least a bit better than Markakis…though he is more likely to decline in the coming years.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 30, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha... Back to Makarkis...
Nice. The persistence is impressive.
World Champions.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 30, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're persistent douchebaggery is impressive
I have not seen you try to prove a single thing that you have claimed.
Markakis has close numbers to Howard and it much cheaper.
by boom_roasted on Oct 30, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven’t claimed anything. You guys are the ones saying JJ Hardy and Russell Branyan are better than Howard.
I’ll refer you right back to this…
It’s like when in a fantasy football league, someone makes you a trade offer… something like Kevin Boss for Adrian Peterson. You don’t explain why you’re rejecting such a ridiculous trade in the comment section, and the thought of a counter-offer doesn’t even enter your brain because the initial offer was so utterly unreasonable in the first place. You just click the "reject trade" button, and move on.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 30, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Geez
You’ve gone from reasonable commenter to troll in remarkable time. Congratulations.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 30, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha, sorry...
At some point, you hear enough ridiculousness, and it takes a sharp turn toward Idiot Town
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 30, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WINCOUER
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 31, 2009 6:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously
If you’d actually presented some kind of factual evidence beyond comparing technical player evaluation to fantasy football, maybe this discussion wouldn’t have become so inane, and you wouldn’t have felt so compelled towards trolldom. We reap what we sew though I suppose.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Oct 30, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The fantasy football equivalent of that trade in professional baseball would not be Howard for Branyan
It would be Utley for Luis Castillo.
by boom_roasted on Oct 30, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just because he has lots o' RBIs
doesn’t mean he’s good.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fine. Throw out the RBIs. Can’t ignore those HR totals though.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you can if they're bolstered with average OBP numbers and low numbers of other hits.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you want to ignore 198 HR’s the past 4 years, go right ahead. I have no interest in trying to convince you that those are astronomical numbers (which they of course are). I’m perfectly happy he’s on my team.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously you should be happy
He’s one of the top 10 first basemen in baseball.
Obviously no one is ignoring his home run totals. Unfortunately for you, other parts of his game: such as OBP and defense, are pretty average for a first baseman.
by boom_roasted on Oct 29, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Humor me...
Name all the first basemen you’d rather have.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols, fielder, youkilis, gonzalez, cabrera, lee, texiera, and helton
i would take over howard, but thats only 8 for me before howard
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you asked for it
Pujols, Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,Pujols,, oh and some guy called Fielder, someone called Youkilis, Texeira, Cabrera, Mourneau, Gonzalez, Derek Lee, Pena, Victor Martinez, and Branyan, seeing as he is cheaper
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 29, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah i forgot morneau and branyan
thanks
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Helton, Branyan, Pena… Loving this.
I gotta admit… I admire your commitment to hating the Phillies.
Take another look. Maybe you forgot some. Nick Johnson? Doug Meintkiewiczitzxietz? He’s a better fielder, right?
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i meant every word of it when i said helton
Helton has a half a point better OBP, a better BA, a better glove. Howard hits the ball harder, but thats it, and if I played in Philly i’d probably have 40 hrs too. And before you make the Coors argument that I know is coming, the HR park factor for Coors has been league average since the introduction of the Humidor.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok, according to ESPN they're ranked 9th in HR park factor
so i’ll retract my statement, thought they were further down this year.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This isnt hating the phils
theres not a person here who woudlnt love to have Utley, Werth, Lee, and a handful of other phillies who are legitimately excellent players. Howard just doesnt fit this description.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No way do I take Branyan over Howard
The only guys I’d definitively take over Howard are Pujols, Fielder, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Teixeira, Cabrera and Berkman. I think guys like Martinez, Pena, Morneau, Lee and Helton at this point in his career, are all about the same as Howard. I wouldn’t say any of them is considerably better or worse. BUt one thing I will say Howard is much better than Branyan.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 29, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
branyan may have been an exaggeration.
but the rest are at least on par with howard.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
branyan is cheaper than Howard
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 30, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah no branyan
But Pujols, Tex, the Youk, Cabrera, Gonzalez, Fielder, and Pena definitely.
Lee, Morneau, Helton, Martinez are similar value wise.
Maybe Kendry Morales too. It was only one year, but he was great and not to mention absurdly cheap for a the next few years.
by boom_roasted on Oct 29, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
check fangraphs, bro
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
technically true
but comparing across positions like that doesnt really make a strong statement about the player. I dont think howard in any way deserved his MVP, but its voted on by sportswriters, who know nothing about baseball, so i don’t put much stock in it. Not to say he’s not good, he’s just not as good as the media hypes him up to be. Also Dawk, your choice of words was spot on, any TRUE phillies fan appreciates Utley, but those are sadly so rarely the Phillies fans anyone hears from these days. Its the loudmouth bandwagoners who have come out of the woodwork the last few years who really sour our opinion of Phils fans in general. Since they only hear about the players the writers and ESPN like to talk about we hear all about howard and rollins and how valuable they are, without much of a clue what they’re saying most of the time.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 29, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Show me a Championship team in any sport, any city, state, country, planet, you name it… And I’ll show you an assload of bandwagon fans.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate bandwagon fans
Especially when they talk about how they’ve been diehards for years, meanwhile they only know 2 or 3 players on the team.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 29, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but the Phillies are amongst the worst, ever
for example, when the Eagles went to the Super Bowl, a lot of bandwagon fans came out of the woodwork, but it made up a much smaller percentage of total fans, b/c the Eagles have a legitimately great & loyal fanbase. Philly is a football town. Even when they suck they have a ton of fans. That’s not the case with the Phillies, however.
Another example: I live in DC – the Nats and the Redskins both suck. The Redskins have WAY WAY WAY WAY WAY WAY more fans than the Nats. If the Nats all of a sudden get good and go to a World Series, the entire city will jump on the bandwagon, their stadium will sell out, you’ll see lots of brand new Zimmerman & Strasburg jerseys around town, etc. If the Skins go to the Super Bowl, you’ll see some brand new fans and whatnot, but most of the fans will be the die-hards who are following the team right now.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Oct 29, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just glancing at FanGraphs WAR leaders for the last three years (07-09)
It has Howard at 27th with guys like Reyes, Tulo, Aramis Ramirez, Braun, Crawford, Victor Martinez, and J.J. Hardy behind him, all guys who missed significant amount of time at least once in the last three years when otherwise they’d be far ahead of Howard (like Reyes) or right with him at 12.5 WAR. Obviously if you go back a year further, his value increase, but that was clearly an aberration year for him.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 29, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I think this is where this debate ends. You can have J.J. Hardy. Congrats – He’s all yours. I’ll take Ryan Howard.
by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 29, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
we’ll field a better baseball team, if you want to include defense, on base percentage, etc. Howard can really slug…but that skill is literally half as important as getting on base, which relative to his position, Howard is meh at.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
I might Howard the edge over Hardy.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 29, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hardy was one of the best shortstops in baseball in 08.
Right after Hanley, Reyes, Rollins.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously
Because saying one particular player is better than another means the lesser player is automatically worth less than at least half-a-dozen other players. I don’t see anything fallacious about this claim. Nothing at all.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Oct 29, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, he's not garbage.
He’s a legitimate perennial All-Star. He’s just not an MVP calibur player. Sorry.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hardy is kind of a stretch, I agree.
Just going with that example. But almost any of those other guys, there’s an easy case to be made over Howard.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Utley's in those shake commercials or whatever.
Maybe that’s his problem.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This makes sense
The writers in Philly, as well as the radio/TV buffoons, think Howard is their best player and significantly better than Utley.
by Balagast on Oct 29, 2009 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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