Community Offseason: Part One: How do we solve left field?
We all have our plans of how the Mets should handle the off-season: Let's make a community plan, position by position, of how this should be done. We'll see if the solutions we all come up with are feasible.
Here's basically how it works:
The Mets have $35-$40 million to sepnd this off-season. Let's assume that they spend $30 million for this off-season. Make a plan about what you would do with this money to improve the team, and then position-by-position, vote for how you would handle this. For example:
If you want Jeff Francoeur in right, Matt Holliday in left, Nick Johnson at first, Luis Castillo at second, Jose Reyes at short, etc. etc., vote accordingly, and make sure it could be financially feasible (no one can predict the future, so ballpark it). What I do not want to happen is that for outfield signing Holliday is the #1 solution, Lackey as the #1 solution to starting pitching and Bay as the #1 solution at first. Obviously the Mets could not afford this. I want this to be realistic.
So let's view the options:
Starting left fielder:
The Most talked about option is Matt Holliday, who is great offensively and defensively. Knowing Scott Boras, his contract could be quite a doozy. Holliday is probably the biggest free agent on the market, and has been worth a big contract for each of the past four years. His WAR (Wins Above Replacement) have been 4.4, 7.9, 6.2 and 5.3 over 2006-2009 respectively, which is some of the best numbers in the game. Holliday's contract, in a conservative estimate, may end up at 5 years, $100 million. Would you be willing to spend the money?
Another possibility is B.J. Upton: Although he is a natural Centerfielder, most CFs have no problem moving to the corner, and excel most all of the time. The advantages of Upton are that he is young (25), fast, and he probably won't cost much (most like he'll cost like $5 million, it's his first arb-eligible year). He's a fantastic defender as well, and considering we have the worst defense in the game, literally, he could be a huge help. He has a huge upside (4.9 WAR last year) but a high downside as well (2.1 WAR this year, despite terrible offense). His biggest weakness is also a strength, and that is his weak offense, which may be alarming, but may mean that in a trade he wouldn't cost much. He's certainly not as good a player as Holliday, but at the possibility of his low cost....
Another popular option is Carl Crawford. Crawford will be 28 in 2010, and will be in the final year of his contract. In all likelihood, due his very nice 2009, he may cost a boatload in prospects (think Martinez, Mejia AND others), and later in contract (think 5 years, $80-90 million). In downside and upside, he's slightly better than Upton, however his success in 2009 (5.2 WAR) has made him an attractive option. It seems more likely that the Rays are reluctant to trade Crawford over Upton. Crawford is both a skilled left fielder and center fielder. Very useful, but at a higher cost in talent and money combined than any of the afforementioned.
Here's another possibility: Jason Bay: Bay is a big hitter who can take a walk and has wheels. At 31 years old this is his first time on the free agent market. His predicted contract is 4 years, $60 million. Bay's monster bat produces almost every year (except for 2007), however his downside is that he simply cannot play the outfield position. Although early in his career he was a league-average outfielder, his UZRs over the past 3 years have been -11.5, -18.4, and -12.3. That's Gary Sheffield bad. This has brought his overall WAR to 0.1, 2.9 and 3.6 from 2007-2009 respectively. He costs more than Upton, but less than for Crawford and Holliday, and his value is somewhere in between.
Another option is Bobby Abreu, who would be a cheaper option, and can hold his own with the bat over anyone else here. However, the downside of having Abreu is that he is a defensive butcher in the outfield, and will likely seek a multi-year contract. While for the most part in his career his offense has sustained his lackluster ability in the outfield, in 2008 this was not the case, as his career worst -25.2 UZR was just about the worst outfielding anyone has ever seen, and brought his WAR down to 1.2. He'll liekly seek a 3 year deal, and the value, I'm guessing, would be around $20 million.
A similar option to Abreu is Mark DeRosa, who is lighter on the hitting side but a brilliant defender, who will likely seek a 2 year deal worth $14-16 million. His down year last year could hurt his stock, and he didn't seem to be worth much in trade value, as he was traded to the Indians from the Cubs for next to nothing, and was traded to the Cardinals for a solid Relief Pitching prospect.
1 recs |
71 comments
Comments
Others
please specify any other ideas. If you want to vote for an idea proposed in the Comments section, reply +1 to it.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd suggest editing the poll and adding an "other" category
I think most of us that would like to see pitching prioritized woul settle for a cheaper alternative in left, and there aren’t really any options there. Fernando Martinez might be worth adding to the poll too, as I’m sure you’d see a few votes for him.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 3, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Errr..
sorry I can’t edit the poll.
If you want Fernando Martinez, I’ll make a comment that only says “Fernando Martinez” and to vote put +1 under it.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I added some options.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Oct 3, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I don’t know how you did it.
But can you take Angel Pagan off? He’s going to be in my right field options
The problem with doing outfield is that if I did outfield as a whole there would be like 40 permutations for the poll so it’d be impossible. So I divided between left and right and the options are different.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted Matt Holliday
because he’s clearly the best available and believe, like I did with Teixeira last year, that he was the only superstar available that was worth the giant contract. I’d rather fill other holes through lesser signings, trades, and internal promotion.
If we need to pinch pennies, however, I would vote Abreu on a 1 or 2 year deal.
by TheBigStapler on Oct 3, 2009 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
is there any talk of holliday re-upping with the cards?
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 3, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
then i doubt we get him unless we pay heavily
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 5, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'll see how this whole thing works out
the Cards #1 priority is extending Albert, and they will need to at least double HIS salary. They’ve been struggling in negotiations, and that combined with Holliday and Boras spells trouble. They also may need to extend DeRosa or sign an FA for third such as Beltre as they have literally no one to play there with DeRosa gone.
I think they end up re-signing Ankiel and Pineiro and go after Beltre
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 5, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
which still leaves us trying to deal with Boras
and we’ve all seen how that tends to go… man do i hate that guy
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 5, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I went Upton.
Not because I want Upton specifically, but a buy low move is the type I’d like to see. I think there will be several decent options non-tendered that may be available cheap, leaving money for pitching.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 3, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sound like the Angels are offering Abreu arbitration.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/olney-on-type-a-free-agents.html
No thanks on a type A if they’re not a long term piece.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 3, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like the Royals might not pick up Coco's option.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 3, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would want Upton
but am not sure what the Rays will want for him. Probably a ton.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Oct 3, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well
I’d think they’d want to manage their payroll so that the could KEEP Carl Crawford, and Upton will cost real dough for the first time this year.
Also, I know the Rays attitude is that the two most valuable assets are hiting and starting pitching, and nothing else is worth spending on. Upton’s .230./.300/.360 line and larger cost may man that the Rays want to get rid of him at all costs.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Larger cost?
Compared to who? Crawford will be a lot more expensive than Upton entering his first year of arbitration, and his value on the field is about the same. It’s going to take more to land Upton than it would to land Crawford. Crawford has a $10M option next year, and then he’s a FA.
by acerimusdux on Oct 3, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Larger cost
than what they paid for him last year. This is his first year of arbitration eligibility, so his contract is likely to go up $4 million or more.
Also, I’d think the Rays see Crawford as more valuable and worth keeping because he just had a great offensive year this year.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I vote for Holliday
you said:
" Obviously the Mets could not afford this. "
How do you know they won’t raise payroll ?. Are you basing this on the reduced ticket prices ?. Madoff ?. Just a hunch ?
by fxcarden on Oct 3, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
all 3
but in response to the first part, it’s pretty clear that the Mets will not get Holliday and Lackey, as they’d be spending at least $38 million and add the $10 million in automatic raises and then on top of that any possible FAs that the Mets get to fill in other holes and it’s just not going to happen, and I’d like to think of this as a realistic scenario.
I’m not objecting to getting Holliday and I’m not saying acquire HIM would be too expensive, but going after, say, Holliday, Lackey AND Bay is just ridiculous.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see your point.
Maybe Jeff and Fred had dinner with one of the Steinbrenners and decided it’s doable ?
by fxcarden on Oct 3, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beltran
I’d love to have Holliday, but wouldn’t go past 5 years $100M. That’s right at my limit. The guy will be 30 next year, and you don’t want him past 33 really. On the other hand, Beltran is 33 next year, and his old knees probably need to be moved to LF anyway, if you want to get something out of him the last 2 years of his deal. So, I probably only sign Holliday if I can find a taker for Beltran.
Otherwise, my LF is Beltran, and I’m shopping for a CF. If the Rays would really give Upton up for less than Crawford, I’m on that. More likely though you’d have to settle for Crawford, and we don’t really have the pieces to spare for him either. The Rays would likely want Davis as one piece in that deal, as he could replace Pena in another year. And they’d probably get a couple other top prospects as well.
But, Upton is close to the type of player I’d be looking for. In addition to Upton, I guess I’d ask around about guys like Ryan Sweeney, Coco Crisp, Justin Maxwell, Chris Dickerson, and Brett Gardner. Maybe Chris Young could be had cheap, though I I wouldn’t really want to count on him as a starter yet either. But, he’d be a good choice to platoon with Pagan maybe.
by acerimusdux on Oct 3, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't want to see us trade for a premium left fielder.
We have some good talent working its way up the system, and the FA market is strong for corner outfielders. Signing Holliday or Bay will only cost us a 2nd rounder as far as picks, and it would be using our financial advantage wisely. If we want to spend our money on pitching, catching, or 1st base, there will be buy low guys like Hermida, Coco Crisp, Ankiel, or Nady probably available on cheap 1 year deals (with F! in AAA). Milton Bradley would also be an option if we could either dump Ollie. If we get the Cubs to eat his contract, i fear he might cost a somewhat decent prospect. There are too many alternatives that won’t hurt the farm system to spend our prospects to fill the strongest position in the FA market.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 3, 2009 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's an interesting perspective
I think we need to improve defensively and Holliday improves us both offensively AND defensively, and he costs nothing in prospects.
Plus, we can get buy-low guys for right.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just going on the assumption that Francoeur is a lock for the starting lineup.
I wish that wasn’t the case, but with us controlling his rights and the decent performance he’s put up, I have to think he’s already pencilled in there. I think that worrying about the Mets opening day RF is a waste of time, because I’m sure with the current front office, Francoeur already has his name on the opening day lineup card in sharpie. If Omar is replaced, then this might become an issue for discussion. Until that move happens, I’m just trying to accept the fact that we’re stuck with him in right without giving myself an aneurysm. He’s not the best option by any stretch, but its just not something the club will address this winter.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 3, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Nady done ?
didn’t he have like a third TJ surgery or something ?
by fxcarden on Oct 3, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He might be, I really don't know.
I only listed him because he will definately be cheap if he’s not done, and he was another guy I liked when he was a Met. I guess it doesn’t hurt that he could play 1st in a pinch.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 3, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rank them like this, in terms of pure "what I want".
Holliday, Crawford, Upton, Bay, DeRosa, Abreu
No thanks on Bay, DeRosa or Abreu if they’re Type A’s. Similarly, I wouldn’t offer those guys anything more than 1 or 2 years, maybe 3-ish for Bay.
Holliday seems like the most realistic option out of the ones pitched, just because trading for Upton or Crawford would be a real hassle.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 3, 2009 5:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the Rays undestand that Upton is good.
They aren’t stupid. It’s going to take something good to get him. Why would they want to trade him anyway if he is only making $5 mil?
by EtSuKe on Oct 3, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's been vocal about not wanting to sign through his arb years.
I’d guess with Jennings ready to take over, now would be a good time to get some nice young talent in return, as he’ll likely be out the door when he reaches free agency. If they extend Crawford, it really does make some sense to get what you can. He’s gonna cost alot in return, as plenty of teams will be interested.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 3, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Upton
He gives us good speed and some pop.I like Holliday but his D might hurt us in Left.I would not mind Derosa on a cheap deal
Gangsta
by Jadden Hopkins on Oct 3, 2009 7:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Holliday
is a great fielder
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 3, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great
is a little overboard but I wouldn’t think his fielding is much of a cause for worry
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pat 3 years combined (07-09)
His UZR total is 27.2 in LF, second only to Carl Crawford who has 32.8. That’s pretty close to being a great left fiellder
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 3, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And in 2009
it was 3.9.
His D’s been in decline since 2007, but he’s certainly been good.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
gotta get that pop
pop+d+d-rosa=winz
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Oct 3, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously.
I mean, he can play so many positions! Most of them badly, but still!
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 3, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so can Daniel Murphy, potentially (he's got left and first down)
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 3, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lol
he was being sarcastic
but in response to squid he’s credible at two positions, pretty much, I get what you’re saying, but he’s damn good at OF.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that's why I could accept him in left field.
Nothing more than a year or two, hopefully $10 mil or less.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 4, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont think anyone
plans on getting derosa for more than 8 mil a year
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 4, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Omar signed Oliver Perez to 3 years, $12 mil per year.
So I’m sorta worried.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 4, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hahah
yeah, but that was out of desperation — the Mets really had few other options and it seemed the Cards were ready with 3 years, $27 mil
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 5, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
too bad Ollie didn't take that.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 7, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if he had, Dave Duncan would have fixed him,
and Ollie would be this year’s Cy Young winner. Because that’s our luck.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 7, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'd have had two top 40 picks and 12 million more to spend though.
Ollie could have an FIP of 0.00 in STL and the deal still would have worked out better for us than it has.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 7, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we add some options that might seriously happen?
And this pains me:
Cory Sullivan
Fernando Tatis
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 3, 2009 11:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The odds of either of them starting next year are slim to none
The Mets would rather start Francoeur, Pagan or Martinez
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thankfully.
I can’t believe I’m saying it, but Francouer is CLEARLY a better choice than Fernando “DP” Tatis and Cory “AAAA” Sullivan.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 4, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fernando Tatis
is far and away better than Francoeur. Look at the numbers.
Tatis’ .337 OBP this year is pretty much Francoeur at his best, and by the way Tatis actually offers pisitive value as a corner OF and 1B
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 4, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was about to say the same thing
Tatis has had much better WAR the last 2 years in much less time. He wouldn’t be too bad as a starter. Cory Sullivan has the same career wOBA (.317) as Frenchy, but Cory plays bad defense.
by EtSuKe on Oct 4, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Tatis in RF everyday would allow his UZR to drop below Francoeur's
As much as I don’t want to see Francoeur start, at least he’s not Tatis.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Oct 4, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is all based on nothing
he had 576.2 innings as an OF for the Mets in 2008 and his UZR was -0.3. This year it’s been 2.1 in 180.2 innings. Francoeurs UZR’s over 2008 and 2009 have been -4.7 and -7.8, respectively.
And his wOBAs of .372 and .335 are better than .286 and .314.
If Francoeur went back to his great-fielding self he’d be worth a lot, but he just isn’t. Outside of his rookie stint he’s never been very productive at the plate.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 4, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at the data, you're absolutely right.
I think Tatis put on a late surge or something, because I could have sworn that Tatis was at or below replacement level a few months into the season. Well, fine with me, then. Francouer is only better than Sullivan. Meaning he shouldn’t even be on the roster at all. Unfortunately, he will be.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 4, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was.
Tatis had a really rough start to the year. He’s actually finished up nicely though. I would want him back for the bench next year, just not for 2mil like Omar will probably give him.
by Balagast on Oct 4, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
problem with that
is that tatis only started hitting once everyone got hurt and he started getting consistent pt. he didn’t seem to be able to handle the role of bench player well at all, though maybe that was just an aberration this season.
by robcast23 on Oct 5, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So...
Let’s give him some PT. I’d platoon him with Murph at first or something of that nature. IMO we start Murph at 1B and Pagan in RF and if anyone struggles Tatis can be a good fill in.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 5, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As much as I'd like to see Crawford in the LF, Omar trading with Friedman can only go bad for us.
I do not want to see defensive butchers in the outfield. So Holliday or a Type-B short term deal.
by Michkin on Oct 5, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to start on right fielders
at around 6 tonight. It seems pretty clear the community wants Matt Holliday, but just to get a better look I’ll wait a little before moving on.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 5, 2009 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You know what is going to happen
“What I do not want to happen is that for outfield signing Holliday is the #1 solution, Lackey as the #1 solution to starting pitching and Bay (insert expensive FA) as the #1 solution at first. Obviously the Mets could not afford this. I want this to be realistic.”
by Michkin on Oct 5, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hahah
I’m doing this in a particular order for a reason.
I think it will work out ok, cuz remember, I control who’s on the polls….
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 5, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be more specific
basically I’m making conservative and educated guesses at about what these players’ contracts would look like and giving the Mets $35 million to spend for 2010. Holliday would mean we only have $15 million left to spend, so if we, say, sign a 1B i’d just take Lackey off of the polling.
If the community doesn’t like it, they can grumble with themselves.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 5, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
can and will
grumble grumble grumble… just kidding, i see where you’re going with this, it will assume we all prioritize which spots need to be filled in what order. For the most part we probably agree that 1b, LF, and SP are the top 3 priorities, but the order we need to worry about them may vary from person to person. That being said i’m intrigued to see how our choices work out.. its like a choose your own adventure book.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 5, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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