2010: The best case scenario

by Kevin H on Oct 3, 2009 10:24 AM EDT Comment 35 comments

With all the doom and gloom surrounding the team right now, I thought a little unrealistic optimism might be in order. What would happen if 2010 was the anti-2009, and everything went right? To try to figure that out, I made the following assumptions using only players currently on the team:

Everyone will be back healthy next year, and there will be no injuries.

Every starter/closer who has had a season better than 2 WAR will match that (except Luis Castillo, who isn't really the same player he used to be. I gave him a 2.0 WAR).

Every other starter will be league average (2.0 WAR).

Besides K-Rod, the bullpen will contribute 2 WAR.

Bench players will contribute 2 WAR.

Jose Reyes +5.9 WAR

Luis Castillo +2.0

David Wright +8.4

Carlos Beltran +7.0

Jeff Francoeur +3.6

Daniel Murphy +2.0

Angel Pagan +2.0

Omir Santos +2.0

Johan Santana +7.7

Mike Pelfrey +3.0

Oliver Perez +4.5

John Maine +2.7

Jonathon Niese +2.0

Francisco Rodriguez +4.0

Rest of bullpen +2.0

Bench +2.0

Replacement Level +47.0

-----------------------------------------------------

107.8 wins

Obviously the Mets aren't going to win 107 games next year, but let's not forget that a lot went wrong this season. Also, a couple free agent signings or a breakout prospect would give a little more margin for error. With a little bit (a lot?) of luck, the Mets have a pretty good shot at making the playoffs next year.

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Comments

Jeff Francoeur is more likely to be worth -3.6 WAR than +3.6 WAR.

3-year extension… .210/.250/.330… -14 UZR.

by psiogen on Oct 3, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I've never been Francoeur's biggest supporter, or even a supporter at all.

But .210/.250/.330? Thats 30 points below his career worsts in every category, and you really think it’s likely that he carries that for a 3 year stretch? The guy gives us plenty of ammo to criticise him without having to get ridiculous.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Oct 3, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait....what do you mean by

“obviously the Mets aren’t going to win 107 games next year”.

how do you know they won’t. ?

by fxcarden on Oct 3, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think this is a cool post

2009 was remarkable for everything, absolutely everything, going wrong. Every core player posted the worst WAR of their Met careers, and the new players blew too.

What if everything had gone right? The true talent level of this team is not 107 wins but it is not 68 either.

This gives me a lot of hope that, with the right moves this offseason, we can be the best in the NL East again.

by TheBigStapler on Oct 3, 2009 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pagan

could be a 3 or 4 WAR player — He’s already at 2.0 this year in 267 PAs.

by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

HOLD ON

Ollie at 4.5 WAR?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Oct 3, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think 4.5 is a reference to his 2004 season with the Pirates. He also posted 2.2 in 2007 and 1.3 in 2008. It’s definitely possible!

by TheBigStapler on Oct 3, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hah. Hahahahahahahahahahaha

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Oct 3, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did a double take when I saw it, but it happened

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Oct 3, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's sign Jaret Wright

by James Kannengieser on Oct 3, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And 1999-2004 version of Randy Johnson as well

by James Kannengieser on Oct 3, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Point taken

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Oct 3, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I wasn't making a point or anything

Just forgot that Jaret Wright was that good for a year. And Randy Johnson was just silly.

by James Kannengieser on Oct 3, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh

I thought you were making the point that what happened in 2004 is irrelevant… which I kind of agree with.

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Oct 4, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Livan Hernandez looks good

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Oct 3, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its very optimistic

by EtSuKe on Oct 3, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would rather get 伊良部秀輝 to pitch

than that guy we affectionately call “Ollie”.

I’ll leave you to figure out who I’m talking about…

"The picture looked like I was in the dugout, but they got it all wrong. I absolutely was never in the dugout."
- Mr. B.V. Incognito

by sj10689 on Oct 4, 2009 4:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ken Takahashi Darvish, yes?

by TheBigStapler on Oct 5, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

It was this guy

"The picture looked like I was in the dugout, but they got it all wrong. I absolutely was never in the dugout."
- Mr. B.V. Incognito

by sj10689 on Oct 5, 2009 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I <3 Angel Pagan

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Oct 3, 2009 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How does one reliever

contribute that much WAR when his name is Francisco Rodriguez?

by METSMETSMETS on Oct 3, 2009 11:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he had 4 WAR in 2004

by EtSuKe on Oct 4, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

back when he threw 98

n hit the zone

by METSMETSMETS on Oct 4, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, so if WAR is "wins above REPLACEMENT", wouldn't league average be a 0 WAR?

by Metzfan22 on Oct 4, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Replacement/average

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Oct 4, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

*Replacement does not equal average

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Oct 4, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or does replacement not = average, signifying that replacement players are not average?

by Metzfan22 on Oct 4, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Correct

Replacement level is about 2 WAR below average.

by James Kannengieser on Oct 4, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For individual players

by James Kannengieser on Oct 4, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best case...

is Wilpon sells the Mets to an owner who doesn’t suck ass. New “non-ass-sucking” owner fires Omar, and 95% of the front office, installs people who are smarter and better than other teams, and uses the Mets’ enormous financial advantage to destroy the rest of the NL for years to come.

More likely, the Wilpons keep the Mets as a consolation prize for not owning their beloved Dodgers, and we continue to be the laughingstock of baseball ad naseum.

by Mex_17 on Oct 4, 2009 8:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're way more

optimistic than I am :p

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Oct 4, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best case scenario:

MLB contracts the rest of the NL East, Mets clinch playoff berth in spring training

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Oct 7, 2009 6:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs