2010: The best case scenario
by Kevin H on Oct 3, 2009 10:24 AM EDT
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With all the doom and gloom surrounding the team right now, I thought a little unrealistic optimism might be in order. What would happen if 2010 was the anti-2009, and everything went right? To try to figure that out, I made the following assumptions using only players currently on the team:
Everyone will be back healthy next year, and there will be no injuries.
Every starter/closer who has had a season better than 2 WAR will match that (except Luis Castillo, who isn't really the same player he used to be. I gave him a 2.0 WAR).
Every other starter will be league average (2.0 WAR).
Besides K-Rod, the bullpen will contribute 2 WAR.
Bench players will contribute 2 WAR.
Jose Reyes +5.9 WAR
Luis Castillo +2.0
David Wright +8.4
Carlos Beltran +7.0
Jeff Francoeur +3.6
Daniel Murphy +2.0
Angel Pagan +2.0
Omir Santos +2.0
Johan Santana +7.7
Mike Pelfrey +3.0
Oliver Perez +4.5
John Maine +2.7
Jonathon Niese +2.0
Francisco Rodriguez +4.0
Rest of bullpen +2.0
Bench +2.0
Replacement Level +47.0
-----------------------------------------------------
107.8 wins
Obviously the Mets aren't going to win 107 games next year, but let's not forget that a lot went wrong this season. Also, a couple free agent signings or a breakout prospect would give a little more margin for error. With a little bit (a lot?) of luck, the Mets have a pretty good shot at making the playoffs next year.
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Jeff Francoeur is more likely to be worth -3.6 WAR than +3.6 WAR.
3-year extension… .210/.250/.330… -14 UZR.
I've never been Francoeur's biggest supporter, or even a supporter at all.
But .210/.250/.330? Thats 30 points below his career worsts in every category, and you really think it’s likely that he carries that for a 3 year stretch? The guy gives us plenty of ammo to criticise him without having to get ridiculous.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 3, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Wait....what do you mean by
“obviously the Mets aren’t going to win 107 games next year”.
how do you know they won’t. ?
I think this is a cool post
2009 was remarkable for everything, absolutely everything, going wrong. Every core player posted the worst WAR of their Met careers, and the new players blew too.
What if everything had gone right? The true talent level of this team is not 107 wins but it is not 68 either.
This gives me a lot of hope that, with the right moves this offseason, we can be the best in the NL East again.
Pagan
could be a 3 or 4 WAR player — He’s already at 2.0 this year in 267 PAs.
HOLD ON
Ollie at 4.5 WAR?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
I think 4.5 is a reference to his 2004 season with the Pirates. He also posted 2.2 in 2007 and 1.3 in 2008. It’s definitely possible!
by TheBigStapler on Oct 3, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I did a double take when I saw it, but it happened
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
And 1999-2004 version of Randy Johnson as well
by James Kannengieser on Oct 3, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Point taken
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Oh I wasn't making a point or anything
Just forgot that Jaret Wright was that good for a year. And Randy Johnson was just silly.
by James Kannengieser on Oct 3, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Livan Hernandez looks good
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 3, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I would rather get 伊良部 秀輝 to pitch
than that guy we affectionately call “Ollie”.
I’ll leave you to figure out who I’m talking about…
"The picture looked like I was in the dugout, but they got it all wrong. I absolutely was never in the dugout."
- Mr. B.V. Incognito
Correct
Replacement level is about 2 WAR below average.
by James Kannengieser on Oct 4, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Best case...
is Wilpon sells the Mets to an owner who doesn’t suck ass. New “non-ass-sucking” owner fires Omar, and 95% of the front office, installs people who are smarter and better than other teams, and uses the Mets’ enormous financial advantage to destroy the rest of the NL for years to come.
More likely, the Wilpons keep the Mets as a consolation prize for not owning their beloved Dodgers, and we continue to be the laughingstock of baseball ad naseum.
You're way more
optimistic than I am :p
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Best case scenario:
MLB contracts the rest of the NL East, Mets clinch playoff berth in spring training
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
I rec'd
Liked some reasonable optimism for a change. And wouldn’t 162-0 be best case. I’ll settle for 107-55, though. ;)
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