Francoeur
" Since joining the Mets in July, Francoeur has hit .313 with 10 home runs and 41 RBI in 74 games. " So....had he played the other 88 games as a Met, he would have 20 HRs and 85 RBIs ?. Or, would he have had surgery ?. Thoughts ?.
over 2 years ago
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Surgery???
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 3, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions
Jeffey
He’s played well with the Mets and I give him credit. In about half a season he’s probably been a 1 WAR performer, far exceeding my expectations. Instead of extrapolating those other 88 games that he may have played with the Mets we can just look at his season in its entirety between the Braves and Mets.
by James Kannengieser on Oct 3, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions
Not Quite 1 WAR
He’s been .3 WAR since he’s been with the Mets. His -9 UZR is really killing him. I know its not accurate for half season numbers, but he’s still not been that good.
IF he were a neutral defensive player (0 UZR) he’d be just over 1 WAR with the Mets.
Having said all that, his LD% has been great (23.4) which I don’t know to be sustainable.
Citifield OF UZR's need to be taken with a grain of salt...espescially RF
There just isn’t enough data, and RF is really different than shea.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 3, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
it's not really a Citifield issue
it’s a sample size issue
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Which is exactly what I said in that comment.
“There just isn’t enough data” should indicate that I feel it’s a small sample size.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 3, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
It sounds like you were saying it was a sample size issue related to Citi Field.
whatever
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
No data yet
and it’s different. At least a place like yankee stadium has the same dimensions as the old stadium, so you could reasonably predict how the park will play on balls in play. It will be several seasons before Citi produces enough data to produce an accurate park factor. RF there may produce some odd numbers as center in houston and left in fenway do because of the odd angles.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 4, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Yankee Stadium doesn't have the same dimensions
It’s a decent size smaller. Where the measurements are, are the same as in the old stadium, but the walls are closer at a lot of other points.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Yankee stadium is a lot closer to the new one is shape/size than Shea was to Citi, which is the point trying to be made.
Not debating that
just saying, a lot of people see that center and down the lines are the same number as the old and don’t realize that the rest of the stadium is smaller
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Didn't realize that...I just quickly looked at the dimensions.
I cant stomach the yankees enough to actually watch them, and I really cant deal with the fans who write on most of their blogs (or for the newspapers).
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 4, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
+/-, a similar defensive measurement system
has him as a plus defender this year, in fact +8. UZR says -7.8. Considering that the 2 systems have evaluated him quite similarly over the years (almost identical actually), and factoring what others said above this comment, I gave him the benefit on defense.
by James Kannengieser on Oct 3, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh
I am now ambivalent about Frenchy. I hated the trade, but in spite of his meh numbers, he’s grown on me. He’s like a remedial kid who you just want to pat on the head because he’s happy with his toy hammer or whatever. All told, I’m happy with him starting next year in RF only to one day be forced out by F!, as long as he doesn’t cost more than about $3m/year.
This is sort of where I sit
Although I think it’s just more of me coming to terms with the fact that dude is gonna be starting in RF next year no matter what else happens. All we can hope for at this point, I’d imagine, is that Omar doesn’t feel inclined to give him an absurd contract extension.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 3, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
That's exactly how I feel.
Frenchy will be a part of the opening day lineup plan along with Castillo, Wright, Beltran, and Reyes. No reason to have a aneurysm over it.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 3, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I am resigned to this also
he’s not the worst guy who’s ever played for the Mets and it looks like he has fun out there…
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it on the scoreboard?"
No, this is where I disagree.
I don’t mind keeping Francouer as a bench player. All things equal, though, I would much prefer Angel Pagan, who in about half a season’s worth of PAs has been 2.0 WAR. Just let them battle it out for RF, with (hopefully) a new, shiny left fielder to carry some of the load. Hopefully, someone like Martinez can take over during the season.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Platoon?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 3, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think the majority of us WANT him to start,
we’re just accepting the sad reality that he probably will, regardless of how little logic is actually behind the move.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 4, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Pagan>Francoeur
Just because Frenchy is probably going to be starting next year means we have to accept it.
I dunno
I’m very very cautious about the idea of Pagan starting. He is a very good hitter, but he makes a lot of bad judgement calls on the bases and in the field. If they can work on his fundamental understanding of the game, he’d be a good starting OF, but if i had to choose which player would be less likely to hurt us I think it would be Frenchy.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 5, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
unless by "hurt us" you mean by contributing a negative WAR
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I think expanded out over a full season, pagan would cost us more games than frenchy would
WAR takes UZR into account, and the UZR numbers at Citi are skewed due to the lack of stadium data. It also doesn’t account for non-error mistakes, like throwing to the wrong base, missing the cutoff man, taking a poor angle to cut off a ball, and i’m not sure if it takes baserunning mistakes into account as well. Pagan is far more prone to these sorts of mistakes than francouer. I’m not saying that francoeur is the solution to our problems and pagan is terrible, but i’d rather see neither, with a slight preference for francoeur if i had to choose.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 5, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
But Pagan never really "cost us a game".
He made some mistakes, sure. But he also produced offensively decidedly more than Francouer, who if he was in that position may not have made the mistake, but maybe it wouldn’t have mattered because we’d be losing anyway. So I think over a long season, you have to pick the BETTER PLAYER.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I wont argue that offensively pagan seems to be the better option
I just have some legitimate concerns about his lack of proper decision making, his injury profile, his sudden surge in power this year which he hasn’t shown an ability to maintain over seasons, and i tend to think his CF defensive stats are skewed a bit because the Mets frequently played their left fielder in left center to help cover center field while he was there. This will not directly affect him if he moves to left, but its an indicator that he might not be able to cover as much ground as we give him credit for.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 5, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
If Pagan is injured
you would still have Francoeur. Pagan’s career wOBA is .335. His career UZR/150 is 4.1 (in all OF positions). Pagan is better in measuarble things. It is hard to judge someone on things that are hard to judge, such as cutting off balls, baserunning, missing the cut-off. We often have selective, biased memory.
And after all, it's not like Frenchy is some flawless, error free player either.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
to be fair, i specifically said i didnt like either chioce
but that i liked frenchy ever so slightly better.. if you’ll remember i’ve never been much of a frenchy supporter around here.
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 5, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I know.
I’m just saying that just because Pagan’s made a couple of blunders, doesn’t mean he’s a worse choice than Francouer. And I think this picture is good evidence.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
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