Amazin' Avenue: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: SB Nation NFL Power Rankings for Week 11

Productive Base Stealing And The Mets

In the recent Athletics Nation interview with A's GM Billy Beane, interviewer Tyler Bleszinski asked about an often divisive topic in the realm of baseball discussion, the stolen base:

Star-divide

Blez:  Do you think that the stolen base has become a bit of an unvalued commodity in baseball considering how few there are now, especially in the American League, compared to years past?

Beane:  What I think I've noticed more than anything is that a lot of the teams that are running have sophisticated coaching staffs and sophisticated ways to apply the running game, and I might not be accurate and this is just my impression, but those teams seem to be successful more often.  The percentage at which they are stealing bases just seems to be higher.

Blez:  The Rays are a good example from last year.

Beane:  The Red Sox, who historically haven't been a running team the last few years, specifically with (Jacoby) Ellsbury at the top of their lineup.  Yet they also seem to steal at a very high rate too.  I think everyone is just trying to take advantage by making a percentage play as well.  That's why the success rate seems higher.  It just seems very much a part of the strategy as opposed to just indiscriminate running for the sake of doing it.

Emphasis mine.  It was Michael Lewis's book Moneyball, centered on Beane and his front office, that led to the creation of a stolen base straw man by the anti-saber and anti-Beane crowd to tear down.  The argument is usually along these lines:

Sabermetric people only care about walks and home runs - they can't understand that stealing bases is a major part of manufacturing runs, a skill all winning teams possess.

Beane never said that stolen bases themselves are bad or undesirable.  Rather, as he stated in the interview with Blez, poor stolen base percentages and running for the sake of running are not recipes for success.  Just because 9 out of 10 announcers say that getting caught stealing is acceptable since it displays aggressiveness doesn't mean it's true.  A caught stealing costs a team a precious commodity: an out.  An illustrative example is the Angels this season.  They finished 3rd in the league in stolen bases, which looks nice on the surface.  But their success rate was just 70%, and according to Baseball Prospectus's EqSBR stat the they were 6.98 runs below average due to the stolen base, worst in the American League.  A success rate of atleast ~73% is required to improve a team's chances of scoring runs.

This takes us to the Mets.  During the Omar Minaya era (2005-present) the Mets have been one of the best baserunning teams in the game, especially when it comes to stealing bases.  Here are their stolen bases, stolen base % and EqSBR, as well as their league rank, since 2005:

Year SB Rank SB% Rank EqSBR Rank
2005 153 1 79% 2 5.19 1
2006 146 1 81% 1 2.32 2
2007 200 1 81% 3 7.79 2
2008 138 2 79% 2 4.49 2
2009 122 1 73% 5 2.81 1

This is about as good as it gets.  Large quantities of stolen bases combined with high success rates.  Anecdotally, the Mets have made some memorable base stealing gaffes.  Jose Reyes getting thrown out at 3rd with 2 outs in a September 2007 game comes to mind immediately.  But as we all know, the Mets are not the only team that makes such mistakes and their are no "perfect" players who are never caught stealing.  Who deserves credit for the great base stealing numbers?  The players, mostly.  It's hard to laud to a coaching staff that has experienced so much turnover in such a brief period.  Carlos Beltran's 86% success rate as a Met is crazy.  David Wright is at a commendable 79% success rate.  Reyes's 80% rate is especially outstanding, considering he is always among the leaders in stolen bases.

Unfortunately, stolen base success is not enough to make up for a lack of good hitting, evidenced by the 2009 Mets.  A team of Juan Pierres might steal a ton of bases but won't score many runs.  The Mets offense from 2006-2008 boasted a potent all-around attack: OBP, SLG, and valuable baserunning.  It's fair to imagine that the OBP and baserunning portions of the offense will have continued success in 2010, given the (expected) returning players' skill sets.  Let's hope the SLG portion picks up the slack.

Lastly, it's worth noting another outstanding team as far as stealing bases: the Philadelphia Phillies.  It is possible for a team to kill its opponents with both speed and power.  The 2 are not mutually exclusive and the latter is certainly more important.

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Nice piece

Its good to see a post every now and then that shows something the Mets are actually still good at.

by Balagast on Oct 8, 2009 11:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

cosign

I can’t believe the Mets led he league in SB’s without Jose Reyes. Just one more log to the fire that proves how worthless of a player that dancing fool is. (/sarcasm)

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Oct 8, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

must've been a down year around the league though

if last year they were second with 138, and this year they were first with 122. (last year 122 would’ve been fourth in the NL.)

by JoshNY on Oct 8, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yea

kinda strange – you’d think the further we get from the height of the steroid era, the more teams would be looking to steal. Nobody hit 50 homers this year (I’m on an incredibly slow computer right now so I’m not gonna look up when the last time that happened was, but I believe it’s only like the second or third time since 1992 that’s happened), so it’s a little odd that SBs were down too. I wonder how much (if any) scoring was down across the league this year. It seems like there were some pretty low ERAs out there

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Oct 8, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Start posting about the Mets »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
AAOP - It's Late, But Still Good
Small
AAOP: A new outlook...
Me_go_mets_small
AAOP: Just get Pujols
Small
AAOP: Supplementing the Core
Small
AAOP
The_buddha_by_lord_karsus_small
Grissionometer
Misc_007_small
Madoff, Backman, and an Old Baseball Jacket
Images-1_small
AAOP. The Way to fix the mets roster without causing to much damage to their minors system (batting)
Axolotl_small
This Is What Is Wrong With WAR
Small
AAOP: Pitching wins.

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

Marty Noble: Glavine Claims Young Mets Weren't Offended By Losing
WAR analysis of AAOPs

Recent FanShots

No Matt Holliday or Jason Bay apparently means Adrian Gonzalez
Wallace Matthews says Mets should look to 2011
This idea looks familar
LoDuca seeking work
AFL: Havens continues to rake
Nick Evans catching in the bullpen plus a little bit of BP. I think I am a bit generous about his...
Marty Noble has no idea what Sabermetrics are.
Kottaras Waived, Claimed
Is it really that tough to play in New York?
Scott Moviel AFL video

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Sponsors


THE BIG GUY

Aa_avatar_small Eric Simon

THE INCREDIBLES

Blackfish2_small Alex Nelson

Cj_small Sam Page

Best_infield_ever_small James Kannengieser

THE NEWS GURU

Wrightfront_small Joe Budd

THE POET LAUREATE

Hamheadshot__1__small Howard Megdal