Playoff Applesauce - Mets prefer Holliday, Phillie day game upsets many, Vazquez not likely to be traded
by Joe Budd on Oct 8, 2009 11:40 AM EDT
in Link Dump
59 comments
Meet the Mets
Jon Heyman is reporting that the Mets prefer Matt Holliday over Jason Bay and that the Mets are going to be forced to spend money this offseason.
More Hardball has some fun with Photoshop and creates some new Met mascots.
BlueAndOrange.net puts together a final plan for the Mets. It's awfully convincing.
Around the NL East
The Phillies' day game yesterday really ruffled some feathers. Cole Hamels didn't like it. Neither did fans who had bought tickets before the time was announced. It's pretty much the risk that you take though. Someone was going to get "stuck" with the day game.
You had better not get your hopes up for getting Javier Vazquez from the Braves.
A 12-year-old girl who caught Ryan Howard's 200th career home run ball has won a lawsuit against the Phillies and has re-acquired the baseball.
Around MLB
Kansas City's player personnel team has gotten really philosophical.
If UZR and defensive metrics are so useless, why did Derek Jeter take notice of them and work to improve his range?
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Just thinking about Matt Holliday,
He has a WAR of 7.9, 6.2 and 5.6 the past three years. The decline is somewhat a bad trend but repeating his monster ‘07 was not probable and he has been realitvly stable. That being said, in order to come up with a rough projection for his value next year, I used a simple weighted average (5,3,1) to come up with WAR of 6.06. Let’s say the 30 year old Holliday will get a 5 year deal in this market and will decline by 10% each year. This would give him a total war of 24.8 over the life of the contract which would make fair market value for him roughly $112 million over 5 years or $22.4 per year.
Cerrone stated that “[he] bet[s] [Holliday] has to settle for five years, and more like $16 million per season.” If the latter were true it would be an absolute steal for the Mets esp. considering we would keep our first round draft pick.
by Sokojoe on Oct 8, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the BlueandOrange offseason plan
its decent in that it’s realistic, i like the idea of adam everett instead of cora and he managed to sign lackey to a big deal while keeping the payroll roughly the same. but theres wayyy too much risk involved.
i mean 34 yr old russ branyan basically just had his first decent season, would anyone be surprised if he batted .230 w/ 11 hrs next season? you shouldn’t be because that’s what he’s done almost every other year of his career.
same goes for marlon byrd; he’s sort of revitalized his career these last 2 seasons in hitter-friendly texas but he isn’t far removed from his sub-700 OPS days with the nats. even this season he only hit 20hrs which would probably equate to far fewer at citi.
and then rich harden too? that could be a lot of bad money spent.
by robcast23 on Oct 8, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Adam Everett would be better than Cora, but
he’s basically the same player as Wilson Valdez.
by psiogen on Oct 8, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
That is way to much money to place on too many risky options. I do like the Rich Harden idea though. He does bolster the depth in the rotation. I would rather look into him than Bedard, but Bedard would also be worth a look too on a Penny deal.
by Coolpapabell on Oct 8, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You bring up good points
Unfortunately, I was handcuffed while writing this by having so much money tied up in guys like Frankie and Ollie. I didn’t love Byrd as the LF, but at the very least he would provide the team with good defense in LF (10.8 career UZR/150 in LF) and about 15 homers, and would buy the team another year for F! to develop. I’d prefer Mike Cameron (and shifting Beltran to LF) but I didn’t think they could sign Cameron as cheaply as Byrd.
The goal was to find one-year stop gaps that could be had on the cheap at C, 1B, and LF, with the hope that Thole, Davis, and F! would be ready to assume full-time spots in 2011. Same with Harden, he was another stopgap to give Niese time to heal and to hopefully keep the Mets from using the likes of Pat Misch in the rotation. I figured better to get the 120-140 innings out of a guy like Harden and 60-80 innings out of Figgy than to bring back a guy like Redding.
by Cox813 on Oct 8, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
have you thought about Ben Sheets?
A possible Prior deal, seeing as he missed all of last year.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 8, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considered Sheets as well
I like Harden a little bit better, he’s probably more of a sure thing than Sheets. Either would work fine for the second starter idea.
by Cox813 on Oct 8, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't need a stop gap in LF.
F! will have a spot in RF once Omar is fired and Francoeur released in a year.
by dtro on Oct 8, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There were also questions about money here
Since budget space was limited, I didn’t want to go all out on a Holliday since the Mets probably couldn’t afford both Lackey and Holliday. I was a little more wary of signing Holliday, if only because signing him would require paying a left fielder into his late 30’s, and I’d rather avoid that if possible.
by Cox813 on Oct 8, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ha
don’t know why but i read some comments on the jeter article. best one:
“We’re not allowed to glorify one of the few hall of famers from this era whose done it THE RIGHT WAY… its amazing how little some people appreciate doing things with integrity.
Goes a long way towards explaining why this country is in overall decline."
by letsgocyclones on Oct 8, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That comments section made my head explode
I’m not sure which side had the collection of bigger idiots: the Jeter is an overrated piece of crap people, or the Jeter is the greatest SS of all time people. Then again, for the dumbest comments of all time, look no further than Mike Lupica’s column:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2009/10/08/2009-10-08_lupica_derek_jeter.html
This might be the most poorly written thing I have ever read. What the hell happened to Lupica? In the 80s he was an absolute must read. Now he makes Mike Francesa seem like Bill James.
by dcmetsfan on Oct 8, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeter is an overrated first ballot hall of famer
One of the best hitting shortstops of all time, a bad fielder and excellent base runner. He’s not better than Wagner or Ripken or A-Rod, but he’s a hall of fame player. Why do Yankee fans feel the need to say he’s the best ever, especially when the only year he was the best shortstop in baseball was 2006, and others to say he’s not a hall of famer? Either way, by the mere fact that I live in NY and have to deal with people saying he’s the best ever, and someone even telling me he’s better than Gehrig, (he has more hits!) he’s overrated.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 8, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Exactly
He is both a Hall of Famer AND he’s overrated. It’s hard for people to wrap their heads around that kind of statement, but the sheer adulation he receives is grating. That said, I have definitely grown to respect him a bit more, and the Neyer and O’Conner articles are reasons why.
by dcmetsfan on Oct 8, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I got into a good-natured (ish)
argument with a Yanks fan about this last night. His rationale was that I could only be questioning Jeter’s “all-time great” status because the Mets don’t have any themselves. He also said he would prefer David DeJesus in CF to Carlos Beltran though so there you go.
by deadspy3 on Oct 8, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lupica's a douche.
Search “mike lupica” on Deadspin, you’ll see what I mean.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 8, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been putting off doing this, but here's my issues with "plans".
So many things can go wrong, or not happen. What if you can’t acquire your favorite free agent? What if your prime trade candidate requires a player that you were hoping to count on for an important roster spot? What if you can sign the player, but you now don’t have enough money to sign another top candidate for another position? I think a better way to go about this process is a priority list, or a ranking of the players at each position by probable cost, along with another list of trade candidates arranged by attractiveness of the acquisition.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 8, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You're right, no team exists in a vacuum
But the goal of this was more to highlight cheaper guys who might out-produce their salaries at most spots, and target one big-name guy (in this case, Lackey) to try to find a few wins here and there for 2010.
by Cox813 on Oct 8, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
question regarding Lackey
if we sign him, we lose a second round pick, correct?
I’d like to get him but not at the price the writer suggests it would take.
by Endys Game on Oct 8, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thank Goodness...
That Daniel Murphy doesn’t have to improve his defense like Jeter did. He is the second best defender at first base in baseball. Maybe Murph can give lessons to Derek Lee and Nick Johnson in the off season while they give him hitting lessons. ;-)
by Joe D. on Oct 8, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Has anyone on here suggested that Murph doesn't have room to improve his defense?
He did very well at first base but he can certainly get better.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 8, 2009 1:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Murphy had the 2nd best UZR/150 of NL first basemen
This does not mean “He is the second best defender at first base in baseball”. It means he was 2nd best this season in UZR/150 for NL first basemen. It certainly doesn’t mean, as CCP notes above, that he doesn’t have to improve his defense.
In the meantime I’d suggest reading up on UZR and other defensive stats to learn about their benefits and shortcomings. Using the stats to make definitive claims about players’ D in small sample sizes is just 1 major pitfall. Mocking the stats without understanding what they are is just ignorant.
by James Kannengieser on Oct 8, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was gonna just call him names
but I guess making your point calmly and intelligently like this is okay too.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 8, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
coming down hard on joe d.
the wink made it good natured, no?
by letsgocyclones on Oct 8, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've had enough convos with Joe D.
to know that he’s not being ;-).
by James Kannengieser on Oct 8, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't notice it
but I know he wasn’t being sarcastic
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 8, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dear Cole Hamels:
stop being a whiny little bitch. Thanks.
"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09
by cjmulrain on Oct 8, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Residences...
where inter-racial groups of children that aren’t your own hang out in your bed
by Bieser's Balk on Oct 8, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hamels and the Phillies, whiny again.
Flat out, they’re the least ‘buzzed’ series. Did they thing they were going to outdraw the Yankees? Minnesota, just on people watching game 163 probably draw better than the Rockies. Obviously the Dodgers aren’t going to play at 11am and that series probably draws better anyway.
If Hamels doesn’t step up, the Phillies lose. It’s as simple as that. It sounds like he’s already looking for his excuse.
-Ceetar, the Optimistic Mets Fan
by Ceetar on Oct 8, 2009 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just a random thought as I watch the Phils and Rockies
If the Rockies don’t want to use Ianetta, there are a lot of teams that understand his value and don’t have any catching to speak of. Specifically, I’m thinking of this one team considering going with Omr Santos next year.
by OlStubbleBeard on Oct 8, 2009 3:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you implying that team considering going with Omir Santos understands player valuation?
Because I think you’d have a lot of people disagreeing with you if you are.
by JoshNY on Oct 8, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right. That was bad phrasing
Sometimes I forget I don’t run the Mets.
Let me phrase it this way: I wish the Mets had Ianetta
by OlStubbleBeard on Oct 8, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do too
he’s better than the hitters people who look like hitters we’ve had over the last 2 years*
- Excludes Hippo
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 8, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least the Rockie's didn't put Hawpe in RF again today
I was very upset to see him in there yesterday against a lefty, he is literally a negative player if there is a lefty on the mound, let alone a very good one.
by Balagast on Oct 8, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny thing about Jeter
is his supposed postseason “clutchness.” Look at the numbers and his regular season and postseason stats are virtually identical. He actually has a lower batting avg. in the postseason: .312 to .317, and has a slightly higher OPS: .858 to .847 (and helped by last night’s 3 for 4 btw). He drives in runs at a lower rate in the postseason, and scores at a very slightly higher rate. He’s essentially the same player in the postseason.
by David G on Oct 8, 2009 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you forgot his Leadership
has like a run value of 100
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 8, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
Offensive numbers in the post-season (I believe) tend to be worse than regular season numbers. I haven’t looked real closely lately, but it makes intuitive sense since you’re presumably facing much better pitching in a more concentrated period. So to put the same numbers in the post-season as you do in the regular is actually commendable.
But he’s still over-rated. People kill A-Rod but Jeter did nothing the last time the Yanks played in the post-season, and he did nothing in the ALCS against the Sox. Then again, he’s also put up eye-popping numbers in other series.
As I said above, the guy is an absolute Hall-of-Famer who is simultaneously over-rated.
by dcmetsfan on Oct 8, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know why they are similar?
Because that is his talent level. Him and also Bernie Williams are the only two player who have had 500+ plate appearances in the postseason and their numbers are the same as in the regular season. One year in the post season is a tiny sample size to reach any conclusion about a player, even looking at all time numbers, like I just did, is unfair because the plate appearances are not continuous. Players don’t all of a sudden lose their talent because of the situation or gain talent for that matter.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 8, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha, one other note
His career OPS’ per playoff series:
Division series: .985
League Championship: .743
World Series: .809
He should really be called “Mr. ALDS”
by David G on Oct 8, 2009 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You know what makes me happy?
Vic Torino making the last out of a playoff game with the tying run in scoring position.
by JoshNY on Oct 8, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yes
Even better than Rollins doing so.
Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.
by Greenpoint Ian on Oct 8, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what an un clutch move
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 8, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he did make good contact, though....
but right at the defender.
by fxcarden on Oct 8, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the mets should look into signing a guy like bedard, harden, or sheets on the cheap. outside of that i can’t agree with bringing branyan or marlon byrd in
by Rey-O on Oct 8, 2009 7:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
we need holliday
Self-proclaimed president of the Pat White and Brian Hartline fan club.
No hating on Jay Fiedler, please.
Official Back-Up Phinsider LOL'er.
The one and only "ho-nerd"
by samdaman on Oct 8, 2009 7:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i need a holiday
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 8, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt I'm the only one who truly despises St. Louis
I imagine those of you who grew up in the 80s do too, but I’m enjoying the schadenfreude of watching St. Louis choke away that game in EPIC fashion!
Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.
by Greenpoint Ian on Oct 8, 2009 9:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cardinals>Joe Torre
But then again I grew up in the 90s
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Oct 8, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus, I'm not in a forgiving mood when it comes to the '06 Cards
Arguably the biggest joke to ever win a world series.
Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.
by Greenpoint Ian on Oct 8, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I'm very happy to see the Cards choke away tonight.
Both for the 80s and ’06.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 9, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just want to see the Phillies and Yankees epically move
and Manny crush the Red Sox. (I live in New England; Red Sox fans are obnoxious)
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Oct 9, 2009 6:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so how do you want the Phils to lose ?.
and the Yanks ?.
I mean….to whom, and how many games….
Me ?.
Phils: lose in 5 to the Rockies, that way they lose at home.
Yanks: lose in 5 to the Angels, or 7 to the Sox, also at home. if, during any of those, Posada has to be carted away in a waaaambulance, that would be extra credit.
by fxcarden on Oct 9, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I only despise St. Louis when they play the Mets
the rest of the time, they’re a pretty good team with excellent fans.
watching a home game in St. Louis is an experience.
by fxcarden on Oct 9, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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