AAOP: This could work!

by ChrisLive on Nov 11, 2009 12:35 AM EST Comment 22 comments

This is my ultimate Mets offseason plan. I prioritized, in order, a starting pitcher, a power hitter, a decent outfielder, improved bullpen, improved bench.

Trades:

Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells+ Toronto pays 30Mil of Wells contract, 10Mil a year from 2012-2014

for

Oliver Perez, Jenrry Mejia, Wilmer Flores, Ike Davis, and Choice of Daniel Murphy or Nick Evans

Reasoning:

The Mets need another front-line starter to go with Santana, and who better than Roy Halladay? The biggest problem the Mets have getting him is that the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers can all offer better prospect packages. Therefore, the best way for us to pry him out of Toronto is to take on Vernon Wells bad contract. It wouldn't be a total wash though, because they would have to take Perez's bad contract- then pay 10mil a year from 2012-2014, but this will still save the Jays $44Million over the length of the contract. It's a big risk, but Wells is still a more productive left fielder with the bat than any left fielder we've had in a long time- even in his off year. Hopefully a change of teams and leagues is all Wells needs to regain his all-star form.

Trade #2

Adrian Gonzalez

For

Mike Pelfrey, Bobby Parnell, Brad Holt, Fernando Martinez, Reese Havens, and whoever is leftover from the Halladay trade Murphy or Evans.

Reasoning:

Yes these two trades will kill our farm system, but the Mets are built to win now and few people can put up the numbers Gonzalez does each year. I think this is a good enough mix of prospects and cheap major league players to pry him from San Diego.

Free Agent Signings:

Eric Bedard- 1yr maybe with a team option 5 - 7.5Mil- Yes he's an injury risk, but if he's health imagine going into the playoffs with Santana, Halladay, and Bedard.
Ben Sheets- 1yr3 - 5.5Mil- Another big risk, but the potentials there to have an ace quality starter for cheap.
Kiko Calero- 2yr 5.75Mil- He should make a good set-up man for KRod.
Joe Beimel- 2yr 4.5Mil- Finally a second lefty in the pen.
Josh Fogg- 1yr 0.8Mil- He's a long man and spot starter on the cheap. He has pretty good numbers as a reliever(ERA in the low 3's) and a mid 4's ERA when starting away from coors field.
Ivan Rodriguez- 1yr 1.5Mil- My plan is to save money at the catcher position. We'd platoon Pudge with Josh Thole.
Adam Everett- 1yr 1.5Mil- He's hands down a better player than Alex Cora.
Craig Counsell- 1yr 1Mil- He's a great clubhouse guy- whose been on winning teams. Also extra insurance in case Reyes gets hurt again.

Resign:

Fernando Tatis- 1yr 1.0Mil- He's an adequate 1B/3B/Corner OF off the bench.

Arbitration eligible signings:

John Maine- 2.9Mil
Sean Green- 0.75Mil
Pedro Feliciano- 2Mil
Jeff Francoeur- 4Mil

Angel Pagan- 0.6Mil

Total Cost:

If you add it all up 2010 comes out to about $146.75-$151.75Mil. This includes a pay raise to Halladay, for a contract extension, bringing him from 17.5Mil to 20Mil for 2010. The budget for 2011 will be a little steep- if you give Adrian Gonzalez a contract extension rather then just pay his 5Mil option, but if the Mets win the world series I'm sure the Wilpons won't mind going into the 160's for 2011.

Starting Pitching        2010 Salary    2011 Salary
    Santana, Johan      $21Mil    $22.50Mil
    Halladay, Roy $20Mil    $21.5Mil    *Est Contract Ext
    Maine, John                    $2.9Mil    Arb
    Bedard, Eric              $5 - 7.5Mil    FA/Opt
    Sheets, Ben              $3 - 5.5Mil    FA/Opt
    Niese, Jon $0.4Mil    $0.6Mil
    Nieve, Fernando        $0.45Mil    $0.6Mil
Totals                   $52.75 - 57.75Mil   $45.2Mil

Relief Pitching
    Rodriguez, Franky   $12.2Mil    $12.2Mil
    Feliciano, Pedro      $2Mil   FA
    Green, Sean             $0.75Mil      Arb
    Stokes, Brian      $0.5Mil   Arb
    Calero, Kiko                  $2.75Mil    $3Mil
    Beimel, Joe                        $2Mil    $2.5Mil
    Fogg, Josh      $0.8Mil    FA
Totals                                    $21Mil    $17.7Mil

Starters
C      Thole, Josh                $0.4Mil    $0.5Mil
1B    Gonzalez, Adrian     $4.75Mil    $12.5Mil    *Est Contract Ext
2B    Castillo, Luis           $6.25Mil    $6.25Mil
3B    Wright, David   $10.25Mil    $14.25Mil
SS    Reyes, Jose      $9.38Mil    $10.5Mil
RF    Francoeur, Jeff             $4Mil    Arb
CF    Beltran, Carlos   $20.1Mil    $20.1Mil
LF    Wells, Vernon      $12.5Mil    $23Mil
Totals          $67.9Mil    $90.10Mil

Bench
C    Rodriguez, Ivan           $1.5Mil    FA
1B/3B/OFTatis, Fernando$1.0Mil    FA
2B/SS    Everett, Adam      $1.5Mil    FA
OF    Pagan, Angel             $0.6Mil    Arb
2B/SS/3BCounsell, Craig $1Mil      FA
Totals                                  $6.1Mil    N/A

Final Totals       $146.75-$151.75Mil    $150Mil

Sorry about the layout- as you can tell I'm not very tech savvy. So how do you think I did?

Poll

What do you score my plan?

1- horrible

10 votes

2

9 votes

3

8 votes

4

9 votes

5- it's ok

10 votes

6

3 votes

7

3 votes

8

0 votes

9

0 votes

10- Wilpon should hire you as the next GM

2 votes

54 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 22 comments

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Comments

No

Trading the farm is exactly what we shouldn’t be doing. What happens if Reyes and Beltran get injured again who plays short and center? Not just next year, but going forward? And the trades don’t make much sense either. Why would the Jays take Ollie and why would we want Wells? Why trade all that for Gonzalez when you can get Holliday, who I still think is better, for just money? This cripples the team going forward, I don’t like it.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 11, 2009 12:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sorry if that was harsh, didn't mean it to sound asshole-ish

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 11, 2009 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A few things

Thanks for your reply Evan- i just wanted to address a few of your questions. I think Everett and Counsell are better backups for Reyes than anybody we put at SS this past year. Both Pagan and Wells can play Center in Beltrans absence. The Jays would take Ollie as part of the deal to get out from under Wells’ contract. Also, I don’t think any of those traded prospects will ever have the same value as either Halladay or Gonzalez. Plus the Mets pick 7th in this years draft so they can pick up a couple of good prospects to replenish the farm.

by ChrisLive on Nov 11, 2009 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My problem is that it kills the farm for years to come

We go from a solid farm with the chance for a top 10 system back to bottom 5, it’s not worth it for an aging pitcher and a first baseman whose had one year over 4 WAR

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 11, 2009 1:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, man

Any plan where we trade for both Halladay and Gonzalez, absolutely exhausting our farm, and don’t sign Holliday, someone who would only cost money, can’t get over a 4 or a 5 from me.
I appreciate the effort, though, and I definitely like some of these moves. Kiko Calero is awesome, for example, and signing Ben Sheets and/or Erik Bedard is the type of high risk/high reward signing that actually has a beneficial payout.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 1:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

A few more thoughts

My plan is of the “win now” mentality. imo this team is built to win now- it’s just missing another ace pitcher and another bopper. I just don’t think signing Holiday and Lackey/Pineiro will do it. We need Halladay to put us over the phillies- and I don’t think we can get him without taking Wells horrible contract. And in Gonzalez we’re getting a 27year old 40 homer a year guy- and on the cheap for a year or two.

That being said- I totally understand the view point of the guys that don’t want to trade the farm- I just disagree with you.

by ChrisLive on Nov 11, 2009 1:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I understand the motivation for this plan

and there’s a very strong case for making a “win-now” push, but there’s probably a more efficient use of those trade chips. As a cursory judgement, I’d call this play super-Omar in that you chase the big superstars like Omar, but fill the little roster holes better than he usually does. Then again, Omar has a pretty good track record of hoarding prospects, so that’s not a perfect analogy.

by Sam Page on Nov 11, 2009 1:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn

I’m not at all a fan of trading away the farm, but that pitching rotation, if healthy, is just…damn. With full health and no significant talent dropoffs, that looks like a 100 win team. I mean, that pitching rotation could go toe-to-toe with the mid-90’s Braves, and the lineup looks good enough.

That said, I just can’t get behind trading away the entire farm like this. You’re banking everything on this year and 2011, and if there are any more injuries or regressions in talent, the Mets are screwed for a long time.

That said, I’m gonna go put this team together in OOTP and see what happens, just for S’s & G’s.

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Nov 11, 2009 3:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The health of the pitching staff is my biggest issue with this plan.

Sheets, Bedard, and Maine are all good bets to miss some time next year, possibly large amounts of time. Santana, Nieve, and Niese are also coming back from surgery, and with any setbacks may not be ready for opening day. There’s at least as good a chance that our opening day rotation in this scenario is Halladay, Figgy, Misch, Stoner, and Broadway as it is to be the one you listed above. I think an injury risk or two is acceptable, but you may have built the rotation on too many questions.

I also hate the fact that we’ve cleaned out the farm of most of the upper levels, probably making it the worst in baseball without much hope of impact players being produced before the contracts of Beltran, Reyes, Wright, and Gonzalez expire. This will quickly shoot the payroll into the 200 million plus range just to remain competitive.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Nov 11, 2009 6:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Audacious, to say the least

I gave it a 5 in order to split the difference between your willingness to go for broke and assemble the best possible mercenary team, and the fact that it’s, well, a mercenary team that I wouldn’t enjoy rooting for over the next five years nearly as much as I would for a team featuring many more homegrown players.

Of the flaws I noticed, I don’t think you get Halliday for under $25 million. You can be certain the Yankees will offer 5/125 next offseason for the best pitcher in baseball. Also, if you’re going to try to lock up a playoff spot, why gamble 10.5 or so million on Bedard and Sheets? This is absolutely the team with which to buy as much certainty as you can for the next few years, and with 10.5 mil to spend on a middle of the rotation 180-200 innings guy, you can buy a lot of certainty. That’s a very large flaw, but otherwise I appreciate the depth of thought here and your willingness to go for it all.

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 11, 2009 6:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Halladay's contract is that bad.

The first year of a big six year extension could easily be 20 million, with his salary increasing to around 27 over the final 3 years. This is a pretty typical contract structure for Omar, and would have a very slight discount for the security of signing it now. I don’t think a Gonzalez extension gets done at that price, but he’s still under team control with his option anyway. Hard to quibble to much with the dollar values here, I think he did a pretty solid job with that.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Nov 11, 2009 6:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I also don't think he's necessarily "the best pitcher in baseball OMGZ"

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Would the Blue Jays really pay $30 Mil of Wells contract?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 6:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd actually expect them to pay much more, though taking on 24 million in Ollie would bring that total to 54.

That’s a pretty good prospect package they’d recieve, and 50 million in salary relief for two years of Ollie and 3 years of a free’d up roster spot is pretty valuable.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Nov 11, 2009 6:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love the trades for this year

In fact I think we could win the World Series with these moves.

But they drain the farm waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much. I gave it a 4.

by Bobby Baseball on Nov 11, 2009 8:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

no way

i dont wanna trade away all of our farm.

Self-proclaimed president of the Pat White and Brian Hartline fan club.
No hating on Jay Fiedler, please.
Official Back-Up Phinsider LOL'er.
The one and only "ho-nerd"

by samdaman on Nov 11, 2009 8:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

not a big fan of the plan, but i’ll throw a six your way for sheer your sheer grit and determination to win now. cora would be proud

by Rey-O on Nov 11, 2009 9:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The trades are way too lopsided for a 1-yr and 2-yr rental

It completely undervalues our prospects. This impatient, win-now philosophy will kill our chances in the long run. It’s like going to a loan shark and going on a shopping spree.

by DoghouseBlues on Nov 11, 2009 1:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No

First off, Toronto is going to trade us Halladay and Wells for our prospects, let alone pay a huge portion of their salary in the process. (Not to mention taking Ollie, an injured horrible pitcher with a bad contract.)

Second, Pelfry is a mediocre MLB pitcher, how can he be the centerpiece of a deal for Gonzalez?

There are probably 20+ other MLB teams that would offer way more than that for either of those two deals.

by Mex_17 on Nov 11, 2009 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ah, Mex_17 is back!

We welcome you, great ombudsman, arbiter of Francoeur Avenue.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Now, did Mex_17 go back to Metsblog?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I give it a 4.

I admire your go-for-broke attitude, but there’s no way I can support a plan that advocates gutting our farm so severely, especially for Gonzalez, who’s only had 1 good season. I’d rather see us sign Holliday and forfeit the draft pick instead.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 11, 2009 11:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs