AAOP: Firejerrynow's plan

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 8:08 AM EST

Priorities: Pitcher, Left Field, Catcher, First Base.

Outfield

Matt Holliday for 5 years/$100 million, $20 Million a year. This is probably the easiest move to make, as we know the Mets need power, and Holliday is the best player available. Also, what's nice is that Holliday's salary is only $8 million more than what came off the books when Delgado declared free agency. For the rest of the outfield, Angel Pagan gets re upped for about $650,000. Jeff Francoeur will get resigned for $4 million for 2010, and will face arbitration in 2011. The Mets will also sign Endy Chavez for $1 million (he's $1 million due to the injury).

Catcher

Trade Ruben Tejada and Eddie Kunz for Chris Snyder. Snyder makes $4.75 Million in 2010 and $5.75 million in 2011. and Omir Santos is the backup, for $500,000. Santos is actually a pretty good defender, according to Driveline Mechanics, worth 2.4 runs, with Snyder being worth -3. Josh Thole goes in AAA, but comes up in 2010.

First Base and Second Base

The Mets make this 3 way trade that's being reported, with Castillo going to Chicago, Bradley going to Toronto and Lyle Overbay going to the Mets. He will make $7 Million in 2010, and is a free agent in 2011. Nick Evans will be the backup first baseman, with Daniel Murphy tries to become the Mark DeRosa type, and learn how to play second base, as a backup. Overbay is actually a pretty decent fielder despite his -.6 UZR in 2009. Before that though, he had a 2.9 UZR in 2008 and 3.9 in 2007. Bill James predicts a .354 wOBA for 2010, a slight decrease from 2009, but hopefully his good defense would return. Ike Davis will be the starting first baseman in 2011.

For Second base, the Mets will sign Placido Polanco for 2 years/$10 million. Polanco has great defense (11.4 UZR!), and is also a former Philly, which puts up his Grission factor. His wOBA is projected to be .325, which is a little less than Felipe Lopez's .333, who was the other contender for the position. However, Polanco's defense makes him more valuable than Lopez, who also has pretty good defense, just not as good as Polanco's.

Wilson Valdez will be signed to a $400,000 contract for defense.

Starting Pitching

Starting pitching is a tricky one. I feel Mike Pelfrey's ERA will bounce back in 2010, making fans love him again and proclaim his as the number 2. With the better defense at Short and second, he'll probably give up less hits. Meanwhile, the pitching market is kind of bleh. But with the Red slashing payroll, the Mets can make a deal for Aaron Harang. I would trade Kirk Niuwenhuis and Parnell for Harang, who will make $12.5 million in 2010 and 2011. After Santana, Pelfrey and Harang, the Mets have Niese, Maine and Perez. Another option would be to sign Rich Harden for 1 year/$8 million with incentives.

Relief Pitching

BB-Rod as closer. Green, Socks!, Feliciano as the 7th and 8th inning guys. Sign Kiko Calero for 2 years/$4 million. Perez can be a long man if he sucks in the rotation, or loses out. John Maine could also go into the bullpen if he doesn't make the rotation. Other options for the 'pen include Adam Bostick as the second lefty.

Payroll

The total is 153.05 for this year and 151.65 next year (in millions). If this is a problem, I can make a few adjustments.

Name	2010 in millions	2011 in millions
Snyder	4.75	5.75
Santos	.5	Free Agent
Thole	.4	.4
Overbay	7	Free Agent
Davis	In AAA	.4
Evans	.4	.4
Murphy	.4	.4
Polanco	5	5
Reyes	9	11 (option)
Wright	10	14
Valdez	.4	.4
Holliday	20	20
Beltran	18.5	18.5
Francoeur	4	4.5
Pagan	.65	.7
Chavez	1	2.5
Santana	21	22.5
Harang	12.5	12.75 option
Pelfrey	.5	.65 (arb)
Maine	2.3	2.5
Perez	12	12
Niese	.4	.4
Harden	8	Free Agent
Rodriguez	11.5	11.5
Stokes	.45	.45
Feliciano	2	2
Green	.5	.55
Calero	2	2
Bostick	.4	.4
Total	$153.05 Million	$151.65 Million

Poll

What do you think of the plan

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50 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Good plan for the pitching

Except the 3 way trade isn’t happening because Toronto doesn’t want Bradley, and if you don’t trade Castillo you don’t get Polanco. And you don’t get Overbay.

Secondly, I really hope you mean Chris Snyder, not Kyle Snyder.

Good agenda, but some things rely too heavily on other things. I rate it a 7.

by Bobby Baseball on Nov 11, 2009 8:25 AM EST reply actions

Some of your salaries are off

Here’s what Cot’s has:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tfJWfaPG4VXbDyBscIZf1MQ&output=html

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 11, 2009 11:04 AM EST reply actions

that's weird cause when I looked at Beltran

under Cot’s he was at 18.5

Carlos Beltran of
7 years/$119M (2005-11)

    * 7 years/$119M (2005-11)
          o signed by NY Mets as a free agent 1/05
          o $11M signing bonus
                + $5M at signing 1/05, $2M 6/15/05, $2M 1/15/06, $2M 1/15/07
          o 05:$10M, 06:$12M, 07:$12M, 08:$18.5M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M
unless he counts the deferered payments

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

The difference

Is the actual salary paid versus the payroll figure the MLB uses. The amount the Mets actually have to pay Beltran this year is less than the MLB figure. Having said that the MLB figure is just used for Luxury Tax calculation purposes.

by Balagast on Nov 15, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

Love the plan...only a couple of places it differs from mine.

I don’t like the idea of a catcher with a bad back though.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 11, 2009 11:24 AM EST reply actions

what is your plan

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions

It will be up in about 2 hours...just adding links now

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 11, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

You get an 8, good work.

Not sure what I think of Snyder, and some of the formatting and graphic stuffs are a little eh. But overall, very nicely done.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 11:32 AM EST reply actions

yeah graphics and formatting are kind of crappy

you can tell I’m not much of a tech guy

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

decent plan

definitely had a lot of good ideas in there

couple issues though. i think you meant chris snyder for catcher, not kyle snyder (who is actually already in our org.) but either way, snyder is coming off a back surgery making it VERY risky to hand him the starting job. also i think you’re giving up a bit much for aaron harang, who, though he WAS underrated, has had 2 straight bad seasons, is over 30, is suddenly oft-injured and is owed over $12M in 2010 and possibly 2011.

by Rob Castellano on Nov 11, 2009 12:03 PM EST reply actions

god, I thought I wrote Chris Snyder

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

and Harang...maybe I'll change the trade for Harang

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

how about

Nieuwehuis and Parnell for Harang

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

I found Harang's trade value through a Trade Value Calculator to be $7.4 mil.

Assuming his WAR is 3.0 the next two years, pretty likely considering the benefits of a move to Citi Field and a potential bounce back year in terms of BABIP. That’s roughly equivalent to trading one B level pitcher (one of Holt, Allen, Familia, etc.), or trading a B hitter (Havens, Tejada, Thole), an older C hitter (Evans, Lutz, Duda) and an older C pitcher (Kunz, Gee, Rustich, Scott Shaw)

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions

Duda and Kunz

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

you'd have to throw in someone like Kirk or Tejada.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

No thanks

by Sam Page on Nov 11, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

Holt and Rustich

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

No thanks

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 11, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

havens and gee

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

I'll give them Kunz and Gee

by Sam Page on Nov 11, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

You've gotta give up SOMEONE

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

i disagree

i like sam’s offer fine. i feel harang has gotten overrated around here, people are forgetting that he carries a whole lot of risk w/ him along w/ that big paycheck.

by Rob Castellano on Nov 11, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Who else would you trade for as a starting pitcher?

Seriously, give me some options.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 9:38 PM EST up reply actions

Randy Wolf is a better option than Harang

He’s a FA so you give up nothing in trade for him, thereby preserving trade pieces if that’s going to be necessary later on.

He’s likely cheaper in 2010 and 2011—the rumor is 3/30.
Wolf was a better pitcher in 2007 and 2008.

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 11, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

Randy Wolf just came off a career year.

.257 BABIP, a good 30-40 points below his career average. That said, I do like Wolf, and he wouldn’t cost prospects. I was mostly just trying to think of good trade options for starting pitchers, though, not free agents.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions

Fair enough.

I also think Wolf is likely to get 3/30, which puts him in the dreaded category of contracts where the upside is he’s worth 3/35 or so, and the downside is that he gets hurt and is worthless.

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 11, 2009 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

Dont give Wolf (or Hudson) a Castillo esque contract though.

Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.

by Bobby Baseball on Nov 12, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

A sound plan, I gave it a 7.

I really like the Polanco signing; maybe pessimistic that he’d settle for only 2/10. The Overbay trade seems a bit too wishful thinking. I’d rather sign Harden then trade for Harang and give up Kirk.

by DoghouseBlues on Nov 11, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions

I like the deep thinking here, but disagree with several choices

especially wrt to starting pitching. Harang instead of, say, Wolf, is so significant a mistake, imo, that it undermines your entire plan. Nieuwenhuis and Parnell are both great chips to have, and could be part of a package for an above average ML player.

I didn’t realize we had to accept Francoeur on the roster… but once you do that, since Pagan can sub at CF for a month without embarrassing himself then Endy, sadly, isn’t necessary. Much better to find good bat as the 5th OFer than a good glove.

I don’t mind bringing back Valdez to back up SS, but hoping Murphy will learn to play 2B in spring training is hugely optimistic.

I also agree with the poster who objected to Snyder. Coming off back surgery Snyder is an 11.25 million gamble. It’s not like his upside is Victor Martinez, and his downside is very low. Greg Zaun is likely to be available for 2m or so in 2010, he won’t block Thole if Thole is ready in 2011, and he’s a fairly sure thing to be average for the position. Exactly what we need, imo, so that C, 1B, RF, and 2B don’t drag down our stars in your plan at LF, CF, SS, and 3B.

If you get Wolf and Zaun (part of my upcoming AAOP) instead of Harang and Snyder, in addition to getting better production you keep Niuwenhuis, Parnell, Tejada, and Kunz. That’s better than half the package you’d need to get Halladay.

Hey—where’s the love for Nieve? No room for him?

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 11, 2009 10:36 PM EST reply actions

Harang instead of Wolf hardly undermines an entire plan.

They’re both good pitchers.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions

If Aaron Harang is your only move to improve an awful rotation, then indeed it does.

The Mets as currently constructed are going into 2010 with a dramatically WORSE rotation than the extremely thin one with which they began the 2009 season. Perez, who we had some reason to hope could at least throw 180-200 innings of league average ball in 2009 may be out of the majors by late May. There was the reasonable hope that Maine would rebound and become a decent to good starter again. Neither of those things happened. Neither did any of the young guys step forward, stay healthy, and claim even a likely spot in the rotation for 2010. Tim Redding has demonstrated why you don’t sign Tim Redding and hand him a starting spot. THREE-FIFTHS OF LAST YEAR’S ROTATION FELL APART. AND YOU WANT AARON HARANG TO FIX THAT?

Harang is, at best, now an average pitcher. His WHIP has soared. And his durability—the Mets crave durability in the starting rotation the way a junkie a week into rehab craves a fix—is disappearing. He’s overpaid, and now we’re supposed to give up two chips for the right to overpay him.

The Mets need to add at least two good, durable starters for 2010. That’s not Aaron Harang.

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 12, 2009 2:33 AM EST up reply actions

Let's go through this

Santana: good and should be durable
Pelfrey: good and should be durable
Harang: His xFIP and FIP have remained constant
Niese: Good option
Perez: Can maybe bounce back
Maine: ditto, but prob better chance
Harder: Good
Between Niese, Perez, Maine and Harden we should have enough pitchers to fill the last 2 spots of the rotation.
Remember, Harden is in the plan.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 12, 2009 6:36 AM EST up reply actions

I agree with you, people underestimate how our atrocious defense hurt our pitching staff last year

I expect a bounceback year from most of the staff (Ollie is and will always be a total mysetery though) with the right signings to shore up the defense. Snyder calls a good game and seems to generally help the pitching staff he works with as well.

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 12, 2009 9:43 AM EST up reply actions

At best an average pitcher isn't really fair.

You probably mean that his most likely outcome is average pitcher. Which is true. But remember, he’s put up Cy Young calibur seasons before.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 12, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

Oh, and Nieve is excactly the type of player the Mets shouldn't rely on.

Sure, keep him in AAA for depth…but don’t even consider keeping a spot for him on the roster, unless he really earns it in ST.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions

What's with you?

Where did I say the Mets should rely on Nieve?

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 12, 2009 2:34 AM EST up reply actions

"Hey—where’s the love for Nieve? No room for him?"

I assumed you meant in the roster.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 12, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

actually, my plan was that Francoeur was the backup to Pagan and Endy

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 12, 2009 6:32 AM EST up reply actions

Murphy can also go to AAA to learn second base.
Nieve, Figgy etc can be signed to minor league contracts. I do not think they need to be a big part of this plan.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 12, 2009 6:37 AM EST up reply actions

What's with you?

Where did I say the Mets should “rely” on Nieve?

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 12, 2009 2:23 AM EST reply actions

I reposted this plan on my blog

I hope that is not a problem.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 15, 2009 10:17 AM EST reply actions

8

I don’t want Harden, don’t feel Harang is enough of a player to be the only pitching move, and it is silly/lame/cheap to take that trade that toronto won’t even do.

by astromets on Nov 15, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions