WAR analysis of AAOPs
I put together a WAR analysis of all the AAOPs so far. Because I didn't know every player other people wanted on their bench- i just went with the players with the best WAR. I'll add other AAOPs as there posted. Also, I'll do up a salary analysis as well- probably tomorrow.
over 2 years ago
ChrisLive
18 comments
2 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Interesting.
Your one, I see, is at the top. That’s fair, and I think most people would agree that your plan would give us the best chance so far to win in 2010 and perhaps 2011. However, after those years we’re fucked. So while this is interesting, I’m sure you’d agree it’s not entirely the best to judge these plans.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
nice job
I didn’t take WAR into account that much at all. I figured that WAR is pretty much determined by the other stats and since we had so many needs, I took a Billy Beane-Moneyball approach and took bits and pieces of the top player and took good qualties, and then found cheap players who aren’t perfect but have those bits and pieces and qualities.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
WARs not perfect
WARs not a perfect analysis, but i think its interesting- like i said salary analysis still to come. I may even do a UZR too. Also, while my WAR is the highest overall- i think Firejerrynow has the best lineup. And, you can’t place a WAR value on lost prospects- or mine would probably be lower than Firejerry’s.
right
we don’t know what Thole and Bostick could contribute
one thing you could do is take their mle’s from minorleaguesplits.com and plug them in
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
Nice Job
rec’d
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
Excellent idea
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 11, 2009 5:49 PM EST reply actions
Are you going to do this for the new AAOPs?
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
UPDATED
Now includes DanDotLewis, Schmidtxc, and KeithsMoustache AAOPs
On one hand
WAR is not a great predictor of next year’s performance, as demonstrated by the wide gap between players’ previous year’s WAR, and their 3 year average. On the other hand, I love spreadsheets.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Thanks for keeping tabs on all this
its interesting to look at the plans side by side and see where everybody agrees and disagrees.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 12, 2009 10:37 AM EST reply actions
Kelvim Escobar
There’s an issue with Schmidtxc’s part of the spreadsheet in that Kelvim Escobar has been a starter (more or less) for the past 3 years. So the average WAR over the last 3 years reflects that, and it’s unlikely for a relief pitcher to reach 3.3 WAR. (Broxton reached 2.9 this year, many closers around 2.)
I think that makes Schmidtxc’s total average WAR a little higher than it actually would be under the Escobar as relief pitcher scenario.
I’m not sure how to fix this, but something to keeping in mind when looking at those totals.
to fix it you would have to
take his average FIP or something and then reduce the innings
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 12, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Agree
I think that’s the simple way to do it, but I believe often a pitcher’s FIP goes down when they enter a relief role (having to only go through a lineup less than once, being able to go all out for an inning, etc.) That would affect the WAR as well.
But I guess a simple fractional reduction is good enough.
WAR is a hard stat to use for the pen and the bench, as those guys will hopefully be working on very small sample sizes.
When a guy gets to start for an extended period he ends up being a bench piece with inflated numbers (Pagan, Counsell) just as anyone who has been hurt (Harden, Sheets) will suffer. Every plan will likely run into this, which makes strictly looking at recent past performance by WAR a tough way to judge.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 12, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, could someone explain to me
how to do a 5-4-3 weighted average of WAR?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
Interesing, but only one of several useful measures
Hey. New guy here. Just my two cents, but I think if you’re using metrics to determine which plan is the best, you need to factor other things, too. For example, not all of these plans are very realistic — don’t know how you measure that, but it seems like a criterion worth considering, too.
Agree 100%
No offense to ChrisLive, but his huge WAR advantage is predicated on his trades that turn Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfry (plus “prospects”) into Roy Halladay and Adrian Gonzalez.
I’d file both of those trades under “preposterous”, but according to the spreadsheet, his 2010 Met team does in fact have the highest WAR.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
