AAOP: First, We Need A Goal.
by Dan Lewis on Nov 11, 2009 5:12 PM EST
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The 2009 Mets sucked. We all know that. But what's worse is that Omar and company acted as if they did not have a plan whatsoever, making odd sideways moves as the season progressed and, at one point, grinding to a halt.
The problem for next year is not that the Mets have clear holes in the outfield, rotation, bullpen, first base, and behind the plate. No, the problem is that the Mets seem to again be acting without a coherent plan. And a plan is not "here is how I would fix our hole at first base," but rather, three parts: a goal, a strategy set to accomplish that goal, and finally, tactical details to implement those strategic needs. That said, let's start from the top -- with a goal.
Goal: To build a competitive team for 2010 while prioritizing 2011's team.
Why? Glad you asked.
First, the 2009 free agent pool is weak, and the trade market will likely be too expensive for the Mets to acquire the talent needed to make the team a clear contender. Too many holes, not enough plugs. Second, the core of the team -- Johan, K-Rod, Beltran, Reyes, Wright -- are all under team control in 2011. Third, 2010 will answer questions (perhaps negatively) about Murphy, Pelfrey, and potentially a cast of others. And finally, we have three youngsters in F-Mart, Ike Davis, and Josh Thole who will be able to contribute in '11. In short, the Mets are already better off in 2011 than they are in 2010. So, build with 2011 in mind.
In order to accomplish this goal, I've come up with a three pronged strategy:
1) Part with players -- now -- whose value for 2011 is bad, are under contract for 2011, and may find takers.
2) Acquire players who either:
a) Will provide value in 201, or;
b) Will not be under team control in 2011, as stop-gaps .
3) Give players with question marks the opportunity to shine... or, suck. If you can't, move them.
4) To a large degree, keep the farm system intact -- but don't worry about signing Type A prospects and giving up 2nd and subsequent round picks. No one except maybe our (protected) 1st rounder is going to be ML-ready in 2011 anyway.
With that in mind, here are the details.
HITTING
Luis Castillo and Jeff Francoeur need to go. By some grace of higher powers, each may find a market for their services. Because the free agent 1B and C markets don't allow me to easily fulfill my second strategic need, I look to trading these guys with an eye toward plugging at least on of those two holes. Guys like Lyle Overbay and Kelly Shoppach would be fine, with each platooning with Daniel Murphy and Omir Santos, respectively, to some degree.
Sign Orlando Hudson and Randy Winn to fill those positions. I'm looking at a one year, $7M (potentially with a $7M option) for Winn. And while others object to Hudson, saying he's overrated, let's face reality: If the Mets move Castillo, they'll sign Hudson, and it won't be a one year pact.
After that, the big question is left field. I'm not a big Matt Holliday fan, given his likely $18MM/year price tag payable for seven years, and and I believe that our best bet to keeping Beltran healthy is to move him to left. So on some level, I would prefer to sign Mike Cameron to a deal similar to Winn's, but probably closer to $10MM a year. However, I can't see the Mets convincing Beltran to shift over, and even if they can, it's hard to pass up on a bat which can be as impactful as Holliday's. So, biting the bullet, Holliday is Plan A.
For the bench, Murphy, Santos, and Angel Pagan are locks. I would bring back Alex Cora at $2MM -- a super-sub with a great bench presence, and at that price, probably even money given his FanGraph recent FanGraph valuations.
Assuming a 12 person bullpen, that leaves one more spot on the Mets bench, with two clear favorites in Nick Evans and Chris Carter -- neither of whom really fit on a team with Overbay and Murphy and in Evans' case, Jerry Manuel. I look toward moving both of them, as needed for a 1B or C, and if not, for relief pitching. The last spot probably goes to Corey Sullivan or Jeremy Reed, causing me to puke a bit in my mouth. (We're going for realistic here, right?)
PITCHING
The bullpen basically needs an arm. Coming back are K-Rod, Parnell, Green, and Feliciano are stalwarts. Fernando Nieve has earned my spot as long-man, although Pat Misch is an acceptable option too. And I like the idea of signing Kiko Calero and Joe Beimel to round it out, each at roughly 2 years, 2.5MM per, but I don't think we'll get both. Instead, Brian Stokes comes back. Epic.
And then there's the rotation. Let's make one thing clear:
Oliver Perez is coming back.
No one wants that contract, and simply, no one is going to take that contract. So unless you're willing to cut him loose, you're stuck with him. I'm not, so we are. We may stash him on the DL for four months, or send him to AAA during some covert CBA run-around, but he'll be a Met in one way or another next year. I hope I'm wrong, of course, but hope and realism are butting heads here. So:
Santana, Perez, Pelfrey, and Maine make my rotation.
Well, maybe Maine. There's a chance they could move him, either to the bullpen or to another team. But I think either is a longshot, so, witness the above. Niese goes to AAA, violating strategy point #3, but really, It's All Oliver Perez's Fault (TM).
With the final spot, I sign Randy Wolf or Joel Piniero to the three year, $30MM either will get. And if I can finagle it, I try and get a reclamation project like Brad Penny in there, too, although then I'm running into a really bad roster crunch.
SUMMARY
Keeping in mind that both Overbay and Shoppach are proxies for similar players, and that your order may vary:
Reyes ($9MM)
Winn ($7MM)
Wright ($10MM)
Beltran ($18.5MM)
Holliday ($18MM)
Overbay ($7MM)
Hudson ($4MM)
Shoppach ($2MM)
Total lineup cost: $82.5MM
Bench:
Santos ($0.5MM)
Murphy ($0.5MM)
Pagan ($0.75MM)
Cora ($2MM)
Pick your barfbag ($0.5 MM)
Total bench cost: $4.25MM
Total batters: $86.75MM
Rotation:
Santana ($21MM)
O-Perez ($12MM)
Maine ($3MM)
Pelfrey ($0.5MM)
Piniero/Wolf ($10MM)
Total rotation cost: $46.5MM
Bullpen:
K-Rod ($11.5MM)
Bemiel/Calero ($2.5MM)
Feliciano ($2MM)
Green ($0.5MM)
Nieve ($0.5MM)
Parnell ($0.5MM)
Stokes ($0.5MM)
Total bullpen cost: $18MM
Total pitchers: $64.5MM
TOTAL SALARY OUTLAY: $151.25MM
The $1.25MM extra comes out of Omar's and Jerry's salary.
More me: You can find my blog at http://dlewis.net, and you can follow me on twitter @DanDotLewis -- and my Mets-specific stream and bot, @metstweets.
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
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eh
not so thrilled about signing Alex Cora for $2 mil. A couple of other moves are somewhat questionable as well. That said, I really like your reasoning for planning for 2011. It’s not at the expense of 2010, but you realize that by 2011, our farm will finally be yielding results in bulk.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I hate the Alex Cora move as well.
He’s just not a 2 million dollar player, that 2 million would be better spent in the draft.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 11, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
I think that you're undervaluing 2nd and 3rd round picks.
Joe Smith (3rd round) was one of the first players from the 2006 draft to make the bigs, and Dan Murphy was a 13th rounder from that same draft that contributed in 2008. Wolf being a Type A free agent makes me dislike that move, but I like the idea of Piniero.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 11, 2009 5:31 PM EST reply actions
Type As
I’m not undervaluing them, but saying that it’s the cost we have to bear somehow. No one would object giving up a 2nd rounder in the Holliday signing, and I think it’s a hard point to make that Wolf can’t warrant surrendering a #3.
I don't like a 3/30 for Wolf with no draft pick cost on it.
I really don’t like it with a 3rd rounder attached. I’d rather get Garland for 1/6 then Wolf at 3/30.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 11, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
I was toying with Piniero
but I really wanted to stay away from the 3 year deal there. I have a feeling he’ll stay in St. Louis anyway, as he and Dave Duncan seem like a perfect fit.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 11, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Cora
If it’s a one year deal, it’s fine. Someone had to fill that role, and if we are competitive, you don’t want it to be Anderson Hernandez.
There's not much difference between the actual performances of Hernandez and Cora.
Niether hits well and niether fields well.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 11, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
This is the best plan I have seen so far.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
um
My initial reaction was pretty negative, but this team might actually be OK. Lyle Overbay and Randy Winn are just starters on second-tier teams though…
"Solid" = "Starters on Second-Tier Teams"
Most players aren’t superstars. So when a guy is a bonafide starter for a team, and he’s not a superstar, he’s just an everyday solid player. We need more guys like that and less guys like Francoeur.
Starters on second-tier teams
as in no self-respecting championship team would start them. I don’t think every player needs to be a superstar, but do you really project Randy Winn or Lyle Overbay to be any better than Francoeur? Randy Winn’s offensive skills have deteriorated to the point that he’s just an old Endy Chavez. Lyle Overbay is a below average hitter and a below average fielder. Either is ~1.5 WAR player, which is basically Francoeur with no upside.
Randy Winn is better than Francoeur
Endy Chavez is better than Francoeur
I think 1.5 WAR is Francoeur’s upside
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
seriously
I would be absolutely thrilled if he put up a 1.5 WAR over one season.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
My plan advocates getting rid of him,
but I’d guess that he does that in one of the next three seasons if he ends up in a nice tiny ballpark. Theres a good chance it’s the only one where he has a positive value though.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 12, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
I feel he's significantly worse now than he was two years ago.
He hasn’t done anything in the last ~300 games to make me think he’s capable of another 3 WAR season. Then again, I often get blinded by me hatred. Still, I got to say, I’d much rather have Pagan in right than Francoeur.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I feel like we've been over this, before.
The only way I see him ever being that effective again is if his defense stops its multi-year decline (far from a sure thing), and if he improves his plate discipline. The only years he’s been successful at the plate are years when he’s had obscene BABIPs. I actually feel there’s a better chance he outperforms his BABIP projection than your average player, but any year below like .340 for him has been horrendous.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
squid92
More important than his BABIP is his HR/FB% because it affects his SLG and his AVG. Also, I don’t think of UZR on a year-to-year basis, the data isn’t reliable in that way. You can weigh the most recent performance as more important, but you can’t ignore the old data by cutting it into one year segments.
I agree.
Francouer is very up/down in terms of his (non-plate discipline) peripherals. When they’re up, he’s decent. When they’re down, he’s puke-worthy.
As for the UZR, I agree that they should be taken with a grain of salt considering new field dimensions and the fallibility of the metric. But there’s no way of getting around that he was not a good fielder last year. He’s been good in the past-quite good, in fact. But fielding is different than hitting, in that your peak years aren’t in your mid to late 20s, but much earlier.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
this would be great but
I would add rich harden to the rotation if i could and not give cora 2 mil other than that this is solid
I agree absolutely that Holliday's the centerpiece of a good offseason
but another part of your plan is unrealistic in that Hudson made 8 million counting incentives last year, and he’s looking at something like 3/21. He’s Castillo all over again. And despite Cora’s legendary clubhouse presence he simply can’t play baseball any more. He’s one of the worst hitters in the majors and now has a below average glove. The Red Sox got rid of him precisely because he was losing his ability to field. In the season after your SS suffered a serious leg injury, and with your plan to sign an old 2bman whose glove is also disappearing, Cora is not the way to go. Sullivan and Reed also have no business on an ML roster.
Shoppach’s a decent stopgap and Calero is a nice pickup.
Winn is old, overpaid, punchless, and may be falling off a cliff. I’d much rather put his 7 mil to better use and start Pagan. In fact, if both start I’ll bet a BBRef sponsorship Pagan is better in 2010.
While I like your approach of conserving young minor leaguers and going the FA route for SP I don’t think it’s a coin toss between Piniero and Wolf. Wolf has been steadier and based on his history is more likely to be reasonably durable in 2010.
Winn
He’s in there by design — because of the “may be” preceding “falling off a cliff.” Remember, my goal is to build a team for 2011, not 2010, but give myself the chance to win if the cards fall right.
Winn’s defense is impeccable and limits his actually downside while (more importantly) improving the perceived value of our pitchers. Even if his bat turns into Endy Chavez’s, he’ll make Oliver Perez look not-nearly-as-bad, and John Maine outright good, potentially allowing us to move one of them in July/August. And if his bat does return to 2007 form — I don’t think 2008’s is repeatable — that’s a huge win.
You’re right: Worst case scenario, he’s a $7MM waste of money. The question: So what?
I agree with most of what you said,
but Wolf was always a pretty big injury risk. I don’t know that he’s any more likely to be durable than Piniero.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 12, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Great strategy; mediocre execution
Hi, I’ve been reading the site for a while and finally just registered. i think this plan is right on the money in terms of its goal — ie, building a long term foundation that makes sense while putting a team on the field this year that can be competitive — but I’m not sold on the execution.
Agree with all the Cora-haters. Also don’t think Pineiro at $30mil over 3 years is a smart move (classic buy-high for a guy who’s no youngster and whose career has been mixed, and you’re stuck with him long term). Hudson is overrated and creates a Castillo problem all over again (not a much better player, locked into a 3 yr contract, etc). Wynn is not worth $7 million. Finally, I think this rotation (basically the same as last year’s) showed in ’09 that it cannot be trusted for much.
I like that we didn’t give away any important young pieces here. But we also didn’t gain anything to help bolster the system either.
Again, love the overarching philosophy (and it’s well written) but disagree with some of the moves. I may be biased, though, because I believe the rotation is the most urgent matter to be addressed.
Execution is bound by the rules of reasonableness
Here’s why I made a lot of the moves I did — and I say so explicitly in the post in at least two cases: I’m aiming to be reasonable.
1) It’s either Castillo or Hudson. While Polanco as a one year or 1+1 stopgap would be better, I think it’s clear that if Castillo is gone, the Mets are going to be bidding hard for Hudson.
2) We have one rotation spot open, and the options all are mediocre and expensive. I think Piniero is the best of the bunch given the price point.
I’m fine agreeing w/the crowd over Cora, but really, it’s a minor point. As for Winn, what I said in another comment is that he’s the right fit for the goal and strategic implementation thereof — low risk ($0MM committed for 2011) with high upside (15++ UZR/150 with .350 OBP potential).
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