AAOP: The KeithsMoustache approach
The KeithsMoustache OffSeason plan would go as follows:
C:
The Diamondbacks have shown interest in a trade of Castillo for Snyder. While Snyder might not be my first choice at catcher in a vacuum, this clears the second base spot while providing a 0.6 WAR catcher who can be a regular starter. He has a respectable .347 OBP although not a lot of power, but this deficit could be counteracted elsewhere. His primary purpose is to provide a serviceable starter and give us an outlet for Castillo to clear 2b.
1b:
Signing Russell Branyan could be a good choice here. He only made a bit over 1 mil last year, and after putting up great numbers this past season, I could see offering him ~5-6 million with a club option for 2011 in the event that Davis isn't ready to take over 1b duties by then. If Branyan was averse to a 1 year contract, we could offer two years, but I wouldn't go any further so we could keep things open for Ike in the near future. Branyan posted a UZR of 2.4, and an OPS of .826, both respectable numbers. He gives us some of the pop we need at 1b with 31 HRs last year. He posted a WAR of 2.8 this past year.
2b:
Placido Polanco is at the top of my 2B wish list. Posting a WAR >3 the last 3 seasons makes him a valuable and consistent second baseman. He provides a solid bat for a middle infielder with a .727 OPS, and defensively would be an enormous improvement with a UZR of 11 last year. His presence would also greatly aid the pitching staff, especially Mike Pelfrey, by providing better infield defense. I think a 2 or 3 year (preferably 2), 6-7 M/year deal could be worked out for him.
OF:
I'm going to stray a bit from the pack here, and not discuss Holliday. He's a great player, probably the best out there as a FA right now, but we need to upgrade at multiple positions and his pricetag is prohibitively expensive if we want to fix all the leaks in the ship (again have to take things outside of a vacuum here).
Instead I suggest we sign Mike Cameron to play center field and move Beltran to left field. This serves to protect our pre-existing investment in Beltran, who has shown a few signs his knees could be a problem in the future. Cameron posted a UZR of 10.3 in CF this year, along with 24 HRs and an OPS of .795, a value which he has maintained throughout most of his career. I would value a contract for him around 2 years, 9 million per year.
I would use Angel Pagan as our right fielder, after posting a 2.8 WAR season in which he had an OPS of .837. While I expect a bit of coming back down to earth from Pagan he has shown he can handle a starting position in the outfield and has a good enough bat to sustain himself at this position especially with Beltran and Cameron in the OF. Defensively this would also be an amazing outfield, which is a necessity in the expansive Citi outfield.
Starting Pitching
There's one acquisition I would like to see made with regards to starting pitching, which is Joel Pinero. While I know Pinero's numbers won't maintain the amazing 3.27 FIP, 4.8 WAR he put up in this year, I believe that his new sinkerball will be a valuable tool which will allow him to keep his FIP below his previous career numbers. Batters will adjust to his new pitching style, but I can still see him posting a FIP of around 4.0 (Bill James predicts 4.2) even after this happens. He also pitched over 200 innings this year, which would be a huge help to a Mets bullpen that has gone overworked year after year for the last 3 or 4 years. Pinero would likely cost 10 mil per year for a 3 year deal.
I would offer Maine a 1 year, 3 million dollar contract in order to compete for a spot in the rotation along with Figueroa and Niese. If Maine were unable to lock down a starting job in spring training he could still be a valuable asset to the bullpen or vice versa.
Bullpen
The only signing I would look to make to the bullpen is Kiko Calero. With a 2.56 FIP last year he could be a great setup man if he can stay healthy, and those same health concerns will keep his value on the market reasonably low. I think 2 years at 1.5 million per year could be enough to snare him.
Other notes:
I would add Endy Chavez as a 4th outfielder on a 2 year, 5 million deal, he can play every outfield position, hits well, and come on, if you're a Met fan and you don't miss this guy you have no soul.
I also give Ollie the benefit of the doubt that he'll bounce back to a serviceable pitcher this year, and I think Pelfrey will have a much easier time with a second baseman and shortstop with some defensive skills behind him.
My final team would look something like this.
Pos Player Cost (M)
|
1b |
Branyan |
5 |
|
2b |
polanco |
7 |
|
ss |
reyes |
9 |
|
3b |
wright |
10 |
|
c |
snyder |
4.75 |
|
lf |
beltran |
18.5 |
|
cf |
cameron |
9 |
|
rf |
Pagan |
.8 |
|
sp |
santana |
21 |
|
sp |
pelfrey |
1.25 |
|
sp |
Maine |
3 |
|
sp |
Perez |
12 |
|
sp |
Pinero |
10 |
|
rp |
rodriguez |
12 |
|
rp |
Calero |
1.5 |
|
rp |
parnell |
0.5 |
|
rp |
Stokes |
0.5 |
|
rp |
broadway |
0.5 |
|
rp |
Green |
0.5 |
|
rp |
feliciano |
1.5 |
|
b |
Valdez |
0.4 |
|
b |
murphy |
0.5 |
|
b |
Chavez |
2.5 |
|
b |
Santos |
0.4 |
|
b |
Tatis |
2 |
|
b |
Evans |
0.4 |
Final Payroll ~135.5 million.
This keeps payroll at around the same level it has been recently, leaving room for the all important 2011 season when a lot of our big name players are free agent eligible. I think this plan sufficiently addresses the holes at first, second, and outfield, improves our bench, and improves our starting pitching not only by addition of a pitcher, but by vastly improving our defense. The improved pitching will impact the bullpen by forcing us to use them less, and the addition of Kiko Calero would add stability to the pen by providing a defined setup man. Other relievers could then be better deployed situationally.
0 recs |
39 comments
Comments
apologies on the odd text at the top
some formatting got messed up i guess, thats what I get for rushing through this at work instead of… well… working.
I’m never great with contract value projection and such so if any of my numbers look crazy let me know and i’ll rework them. I’m good with stats, bad with finances.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2009 5:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Branyan will take a one year deal.
That is suposedly the sticking point for him resigning in Seattle at the moment, he apparenty wants a two year deal. I think a one year deal with a player option would do it, but I just don’t think he’s gonna take a 1 year deal with a club option.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 11, 2009 5:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i agree this could be a sticking point
thats why i said shoot for two if necessary, but I wouldnt go much more, guess I should have provided a backup plan in case he fell through. I’ll edit slightly and get back to you.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That rotation isn't very different from what we had
you basically replaced Livan with Piniero.
me no like.
by fxcarden on Nov 11, 2009 5:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Piniero is alot better than Livan
It’s like replacing Pagan with Holliday.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 11, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, no doubt he is
but a rotation featuring Ollie and Maine needs more firepower than Piniero.
by fxcarden on Nov 11, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wheres Frenchy and Murphy?
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Nov 11, 2009 6:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Murphy is in his list, so I'd guess the bench.
As Francoeur isn’t on the list, I’d guess he was non-tendered.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 11, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
correct on both. the (b) in the list means bench.
I see murph as a supersub in all of this, although if we cant get Branyan for two years he may move up in the list quickly. Frenchy gets non-tendered if it were up to me.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yo quiero Holliday.
So I can’t give you too high of a score. Sorry, I like the rest of the plan.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 6:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I know how you feel
landing Holliday would be fantastic in real life don’t get me wrong, because I don’t think the FO could ever make this many concerted moves to fix the team, whereas Holliday is a quick and relatively effective fix that can be made in one shot.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2009 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree 100%
This FO would always take the path of least resistance, and spin the rest.
I think all of us would proclaim “we are the team to beat” as soon as the Halladay deal was announced, then over the next few days there would be like 1000 Fanshots all saying the same thing = /facepalm.
I might be the only guy that doesn’t do the /facepalm thing because I want to see Doc pitch for us, and damn everything else.
by fxcarden on Nov 11, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is my favorite so far
I’d use the spare cash to give a big one year deal to Harden.
by Sam Page on Nov 11, 2009 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather take a run at Chapman in this particular case.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 11, 2009 8:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
chapman is a hell of a gamble though
lots of talent, little polish. If we were going for a multi year deal sure, for one year i take my chances with harden
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Chapman would be at least a three year deal, as he'd likely not take a deal that doesn't cover him until his arbitration years.
I like the fact that he’d be under team control for 6 years if he pays off.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 11, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True but it also could turn into a 3 year rock of a contract if he doesnt pan out
and my guess is he doesnt come cheap. I wouldn’t be upset if they signed him in real life, assuming they did so in a rational manner, but he doesnt really fit with the framework of my hypothetical plan.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2009 8:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is pretty good
I like Cameron and Branyan…
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 11, 2009 6:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Branyan had back surgery, as did Snyder. That’s two key starters with significant injuries last season that you’re adding to a team with the worst injury problem in the majors last season. Piniero has also been hurt two of the last three years.
I just think we need to go in a very different direction instead of piling up even more injury risks. Plus, I can’t go along with cutting the budget the year after we gave the Wilpons a shiny new 600 million dollar stadium. There’s enough slack in your budget to pick up Holliday instead of Cameron, and given that Endy has averaged an OPS+ under 700 over the last three years and that there’s no way he’ll sniff 2/5, there’s even more money available than you thought, imo.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 11, 2009 11:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
As I stated above Im really bad at figuring what contracts should be, so i erred on the high side on contracts to make sure it fit my plan
Injuries are a risk, but to get this many players for cheap you have to take a chance somewhere.
Holliday is the flashiest signing, but not necessarily the most strategically optimal pickup. Cameron can do the job for less, leaving more money available for next year, when in my opinion a much greater variety of desirable talent is available, especially in starting pitching.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
and pitching is certainly a current weakness.
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 12, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Off-topic but...
Do these AAOPs include replacing GMs?
If so, I lobby for Lou Lamoriello as GM!
Beer is good! And stuff!
by R_Adragna on Nov 11, 2009 11:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Can't get behind this one.
Sorry, Keiths.
Can’t stand Branyan. Don’t want to give Angel a starting spot. And Piniero would have the disadvantage of NOT facing the Mets — his own personal prey.
Gave it a 5er.
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
by CharlieH on Nov 12, 2009 10:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
no worries, the plan has flaws for sure, but I was going for realistic.
Branyan is a stopgap far as I’m concerned anyway, there just aren’t many players I’d want in a long term deal this year in the FA pool. I think Angel in a corner OF spot would be fine (just keep him away from CF, i’ve expressed my opinion on his play there before). I think Pinero continues to put up better numbers than we saw in his early career with his new philosophy on pitching, and he fits with the strong infield defense the rest of this plan gives us.
Even I think my plan is flawed in places, but I wanted to give a balanced approach that didn’t require the signing of any huge contracts given how many of those we’re going to be working out over the next couple years, and the much greater amount of talent available in next years FA market. There is nobody out there that i’m really dying to have for a long multi year deal, although I certainly won’t be upset if we happen to win the Holliday sweepstakes (I don’t think we will though).
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 12, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Terrific.
I always enjoy your stuff, Keith’s. That’s why I felt bad that I couldn’t get behind your plan.
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
by CharlieH on Nov 12, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
its ok, i take no offense, and your 5 is far from the lowest score i've gotten on this anyway.
We’ve all got very different ideas of how to handle the situation, but really the problem is there’s no magic bullet that fixes all our problems in one offseason even if we get what we want. I think the 3 year plan that would go with this plan would help my suggestions make more sense.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 12, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One regular bullet would fix the biggest issue we have...
Let Adam Rubin do the aiming and I bet he’d pick the right target (Not that I’m advocating this particular course of action).
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 12, 2009 12:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Meant to reply with that comment
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 12, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
haha, maybe that should have been my entire offseason plan
its simple and effective.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 12, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I appreciate the fact that you didn’t damage the farm system at all, but I’m not certain this team has the offense it needs. Definitely see your point on Holliday though, I’m grappling with the same worries myself.
by njk237 on Nov 12, 2009 4:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Snyders bat would leave something to be desired, but I think the rest can hit reasonably well for their positions.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 12, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I actually liked Snyder quite a bit before his back surgery.
I’d just like to see him actually catch for a season before I’d go after him, espescially since there are so many cheaper options on the free agent market who should take 1 year deals. I have a feeling there will be quite a few catchers non-tendered as well.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 12, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my reasoning for Snyder in this plan is that he gives us an outlet for Castillo
if we could send castillo elsewhere i’d take one year with Zaun without a doubt, but the way my plan came together this seemed like the most feasable outlet for castillo.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 12, 2009 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd also take Snyder over Castillo, as I feel he's less of a liability in the field.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 12, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed, and he also handles a pitching staff well/calls a good game
He’s not ideal, but he does bring value to the team
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 12, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Best part your plan, KM
is the 3 (4 with Endy) CF outfield. I do agree you’re going to need guys who can cover ground at Citi. Plus it gives automatic depth for the inevitable injuries (we’re going to have teach Beltran and Cameron to not run into each other. Worst part: Branyan at 1B. Never liked him. We ought to be able to find somebody who’s halfway productive there.
by StorkFan on Nov 12, 2009 9:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
it was between Branyan and Johnson
I wanted somebody disposable, with Ike around the corner. Short deal, cheap, and effective limited my options. Both are injury prone, so I essentially flipped a coin. I’ve always hated Nick Johnson for some reason, even injuries aside, so my personal preferences probably leaked into this decision a bit as well.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 12, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by 






















