Holliday vs. Bay, Defensively

by James Kannengieser on Nov 11, 2009 9:30 PM EST Comment 35 comments

Despite his ill-fated attempt to catch the ball with his crotch in this year's NLDS, Matt Holliday is superior to Jason Bay defensively. You wouldn't evaluate a player's batting skills based on 1 plate appearance and you shouldn't judge a player's defense based on 1 misplay. I've seen the Bay > Holliday myth propagated in a number of places so it's worth addressing. Here are each player's UZR and +/- (in runs saved) for the last 3 seasons combined:

Player	UZR	+/-
Matt Holliday	+29	+22
Jason Bay	-43	-17

Additionally, Holliday rated higher than Bay according to the Fans Scouting Report this season. The extent to which Bay sucks defensively is up for debate but it's pretty clear he is below average while Holliday is above average. The end.

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No arguements here

Bay is definitely not as good of a fielder.

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2009 9:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

James K was here.

by Sam Page on Nov 11, 2009 9:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

"You wouldn't evaluate a player's batting skills based on 1 plate appearance and you shouldn't judge a player's defense based on 1 misplay."

I’m with you one hundred percent!
In an unrelated note, we really need to get rid of Beltran.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 11, 2009 10:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah its obvious he can't ever hit curveballs

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2009 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking this exact thing

as soon as I read that. God, I hate typical fans.

"[The Giants] beat us down. We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day. They came in here and took it to us. Out-manned us, out-gunned us. ... It wasn't even close." - Raheem Morris, 9/27/09

by cjmulrain on Nov 12, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

quit preaching to the choir

by boom_roasted on Nov 11, 2009 11:10 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Rec'd

by Sam Page on Nov 11, 2009 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Warned

(you)

by James Kannengieser on Nov 11, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

speaking of the choir

Isn’t there anyone who doesn’t quite drink the Holliday punch around here? Or thinks that perhaps its best the Mets don’t “win” the winter by landing EITHER Bay OR Holliday with an unwieldy and interminable Boras-ian contract, so when Omar is fired there will be flexibility and $$ for the hopefully more competent GM that replaces him to use to maneuver us into post season glory? From what I can see, there is nothing but choir for this mile-high masher: its the Coors Choir for Holliday. Yeah he plays left field and doesn’t suck. Is a $17-20 mil a year left fielder really what this team needs now? My feeling is that the Mets really are not one player away from being competitive, and when the surgeon’s knives are all finally put down for the winter, we may be in even more dire straits than we think.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Nov 12, 2009 1:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why did you throw Bay and Holliday in together?

They’re very different players. Also, this:

Yeah he plays left field and doesn’t suck. Is a $17-20 mil a year left fielder really what this team needs now? My feeling is that the Mets really are not one player away from being competitive, and when the surgeon’s knives are all finally put down for the winter, we may be in even more dire straits than we think.

is just kind of a mish mash of catchphrases. Is a $17-20MM LF what the team needs? Well the team does need a LFer and most people would say Holliday is worth 17-20MM. Are the Mets one player away from being competitive? No, but nobody expects them to just acquire one player this winter.

by Sam Page on Nov 12, 2009 1:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Why did you throw Bay and Holliday in together?"

several posts on AA did it as well as this one, not me. I just do the mish mash of catch phrases.
Just wondering if there’s a more modest plan out there to be defended.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Nov 12, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Check the FanPosts

Any FanPost with “AAOP” in the title is an offseason plan.

by James Kannengieser on Nov 12, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So having four players with potential of having over 5 WAR

won’t make us competitive?

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 12, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They already do

by boom_roasted on Nov 12, 2009 2:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I meant position players

Damn you for pointing out my mistakes!!! DAMN YOU!!!!

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 12, 2009 3:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

boom_roasted is on fire

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Nov 12, 2009 8:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and boom_roasted goes the dynamite

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Nov 12, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Holliday, Reyes, Beltran, Wright, and Johan make 5

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Nov 12, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a big Mike Cameron fan

I’d rather have Cameron for a year and $10-$11 million than Holliday for 6 years and $110 million. Not really sure if there’s any Holliday Kool-Aid around here to be honest.

by James Kannengieser on Nov 12, 2009 7:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

there seems to be a definite "consensus," if not a refreshing powdered summer beverage

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Nov 12, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the consensus is definitely on Holliday

But I don’t think that people are getting castigated for putting forth other reasonable options. That’s why I don’t think it’s fair to go to “Kool-Aid” status quite yet. When everyone here starts foaming at the, um, AA comment at the mere mention of a LF who is not Matt Holliday playing for the Mets next year, then maybe we’ll have reached it.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Nov 12, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we all agree that Holliday is the best available LF

but may disagree on who is the best overall considering our needs and our resources.

by TheBigStapler on Nov 12, 2009 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I meant to say “best overall for us”

by TheBigStapler on Nov 12, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I agree with you.

I don’t get the Holliday love either.

I don’t think Holliday has achieved “Kool Aid” status yet, maybe more like Lipton Iced Tea mix. Give it time though, it’s only November.

by Mex_17 on Nov 12, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He's no Jeff Francoeur

That’s for sure!

by James Kannengieser on Nov 12, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Holliday Punch!

spill it on your crotch!

Francouer=Moonshine

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Nov 12, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nonsense.

It only took two weeks for this place to turn into Francoeur Avenue, yeah?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 12, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fan scouting

Interestingly, the fans scouting report actually said Bay was better in 2008 and 2006. I’m convinced Holliday is the better defender, but I’m not at all sure by how much. What happened to Bay the last 2-3 years that he suddenly is looking awful on UZR?

One thing that makes the comparison especially difficult is that you are dealing with two unusual ball parks, with both Coors field and the green monster in Fenway, which makes it hard to be sure the UZRs are going to be accurate measures.

My guess is the defensive difference between the two is more like -10 runs, which is about what total zone suggests if you use career data. But I don’t have a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of that.

by acerimusdux on Nov 12, 2009 3:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs