AAOP: I Defy you to find something better
Well, this is perhaps my fantasy. But to me this all makes sense.
1) Make a push for Matt Holliday
Going by some calculations over at Drivelinemechanics, I think a contract in the range of 5 yrs, 90-100mil is fair (Holiday is not Teixeira and 18mil+/yr is what Carlos Beltran is making). I wouldn't go above 20 mil/yr. Overall personal projection: 5 years 18.5 per year. 92 mil total.
2) Sign Rich Harden
I pick him because I believe that Harden's injury woes are behind him and is undervalued in the market. His days spent on the DL have decreased from 100 to 38, to 24 last year while he has never had TJ,
Overall Personal Projection: Sign him to an escalator laden contract worth 2 years 11 mil guaranteed (5 mil in 2010, 6 mil in 2011 guaranteed, and a club option 3rdyear worth 4 mil. The salary increases to 10mil/year if Harden gets 15 Quality Starts that year.
3) Fill the bench with high wOBA and/or good fielding players.
I think bringing in players such as Jamey Carroll, and even Matt Murton could help the team (though Carroll looks like a tough sign—so we may have to settle for someone likeBobby Crosby), aside from that, Pagan, Murphy and Santos make a pretty awesome bench. –about 6-7 WAR combined. Sign them to the league minimum ~400k
4) Grab Greg Zaun
He has one of the best gloves at the position and a good enough bat to suffice for a catcher. Also no draft pick compensation.
Personal Projection: A one year deal worth 2.5 mil with a club option worth 1.5 mil in 2011.
5) Move Oliver Perez to the Bullpen
Keeping him as a starter is a death wish regardless of what type of hitting you bring in. Also, perhaps the the idea of only having to throw for an inning or may improve his performance (see Joba or Phil Hughes)
6) Do Not Tender Jeff Francoeur
no brainer
7) Acquire Jonathan Sanchez
Luis Castillo and Nick Evans to the Dodgers
Juan Pierre, Justin Miller, and Eddie Kunz to the Giants
Jonathan Sanchez to the Mets
This deal fills the void for the Giants left by Randy Winn, and with Lincecum in the midst of perhaps signing one of the largest arbitration deals on record, they may not be able to afford to keep Sanchez as well long term. Kunz is a solid relief arm that may help them, and Miller may progress into a big league starter. This also allows Bumgarner to go right to the rotation. It allows the Dodgers to fill their 2B hole without splurging. Nick Evans gives them a back up for Loney that hits especially well against LHP (as Loney’s strength is RHP), so they can platoon those without having to get a 40 year old 1B like Thome or Giambi. Finally, Sanchez is an awesome lefty 4 starter, and is a better option than someone like Randy Wolf.
8) Acquire Carl Crawford and Grant Balfour
Package Brad Holt, Jefry Marte, and Jenrry Mejia (and if need be: Dillon Gee ) to the Rays for Crawford and Balfour
Crawford is one of the best fielders in baseball and his skill set is perfect for Citifield. Balfour has had a solid FIP throughout his career and would be a great help to the bullpen perhaps as a setup man. He may not be tendered by the Rays anyway, so this would not be a huge loss for them (especially with the rise of players like Mcgee, Hellickson, Davis, etc. Mejia and Holt both are huge red flags for me, as Holt’s lack of secondary pitches and Mejia’s wild command, coupled with a lack of positive experience at higher levels makes them expendable in my eyes. Under this plan, the Mets retain Tejada, Flores, Davis, Nieuwenhuis, F-Mart, and Havens so it’s far from a complete depletion of the system. Furthermore, all signs are pointing at Mejia making a switch to the bullpen, decreasing his value.
9) Sign Nick Johnson.
He’s a year and a half younger than Overbay, puts up better numbers with the bat, and doesn’t strike out. Also I’d only play him 65% of the time and give the other 35% to Daniel Murphy and if possible, a sept callup of Ike Davis. Meaning, Nick won’t have the pressure of playing 6 games a week—only about 4. Also, unlike his prior teams, he’d be hitting lower in the lineup, putting him under less pressure to get on base, and perhaps Murphy would be better if he only played 30% of the time, a la Omir Santos last year.
Personal Projection: a 1 year deal worth 5 mil with a club option for 2011 worth 2.5 mil.
10) Sign Chone Figgins
I like him a lot. He can play a billion positions, all with respectable UZRs. Consistently puts up good WAR #’s, and has performed this well in the AL—a switch to the NL may be rough at first but will definitely be worth it in the long term.
Personal Projection: A 3 year deal worth 28 million: 2010: 9mil 2011: 9 mil 2012: 10 mil
11) Bring back Sean Green or grab Chad Bradford
These moves are almost the same in my mind as Bradford’s health risk compensates for Green’s slightly worse performance.
Either way, I wouldn't spend more than 600k
Projected Salaries (4 mil is a rough estimate of Jonathan Sanchez's arbitration case)
C) Greg Zaun 2.5 mil
1B) Nick Johnson 5 mil
2B) Chone Figgins 9 mil
SS) Jose Reyes 9 mil
3B) David Wright 10 mil
LF) Matt Holliday 18.5 mil
CF) Carlos Beltran 18.5 mil
RF) Carl Crawford 10 mil
_________________
82.5 mil
B) Daniel Murphy 400k
B) Bobby Crosby 400k
B) Omir Santos 400k
B) Matt Murton 400k
B) Angel Pagan 600k
__________________
2.2 mil
SP) Johan Santana 21mil
SP) Rich Harden 7mil
SP) Mike Pelfrey 500k
SP) Jonathan Sanchez 4 mil
SP) John Maine 4mil
___________________
36.5 mil
LR/Spot Starter) Jon Niese 400k
MR) Bobby Parnell 400k
MR) Pedro Feliciano 1.2 mil
MR) Sean Green 400k
MR) Oliver Perez 12 mil
SU) Grant Balfour 1.5 mil
CL) Francisco Rodriguez 11.5 mil
__________________
27.4 mil
_____________________
148.6 mil
Thanks
0 recs |
35 comments
Comments
i like the lineup
but gutting the farm seems like the wrong way to go at this point in time.
also, we only get crawford for one year at this rate.
but that’s a great lineup.
by saberkeith on Nov 13, 2009 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Don't really know the issue with the farm
Holt is far from a guarantee and doesn’t have a 2nd pitch yet. Mejia if he doesn’t break down (which is a huge if given his mechanics) will be limited to a bullpen role. And I have no problem giving up a bullpen guy for Carl Crawford. Marte sucks, plain and simple and has about 4 years before we can picture him in the majors, if he makes it to the majors.
The plan keeps guys like Davis, Havens, Niewenhuis, Tejada, and Martinez, who have all performed at higher levels, 2 of which have significant ceilings.
In regards to Crawford, Perez coming off the books in 2011 makes signing him easier.
by sagecoll on Nov 13, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this team would be pretty amazing for next year, but I don't like losing holt and mejia for a rental though
and i think figgins is probably not the best available option if we need someone to play 2b, since its one of his weakest positions. Overall a pretty strong plan though.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 13, 2009 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't see why you're replacing Oliver Perez in the rotation with the second coming of Oliver Perez.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 13, 2009 5:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well
Sanchez is a 4th starter who in his 2 years as a starter has put up FIP’s of 3.85, and 4.17 both of which are better than ANY season Oliver Perez has had. Also, he only has 2 years of service time, which means we do not have to resign him for a bit. So we pay him 3-6 mil a year, get solid performance (since that is all he’s shown his whole career) for a few years. Certainly a lot better than going after Wolf or Lackey who put up comparable performance but also have injury history and are on the decline.
by sagecoll on Nov 13, 2009 6:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Perez put up a 3.45 FIP in 2004 over 196 innings.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Nov 13, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I stand corrected
“Better than any season Oliver Perez has had…..in the past 5 years”
by sagecoll on Nov 13, 2009 6:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Are Harden's incentives allowed?
Maybe I’m wrong, but I thought incentives could only be based on innings (maybe starts?), plate appearances, and awards—not a performance stat like quality starts.
by DoghouseBlues on Nov 13, 2009 7:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Innings is usally done anyway
I’m not sure if it’s illegal, but they always do innings, for pitchers
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 14, 2009 6:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, bonuses have to be based on playing time.
Awards-based bonuses aren’t allowed anymore.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 14, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Since when?
Is this a rule for the contest or a rule for the real MLB? Because I think Andy Pettitte had some performance based incentives on his contract this year.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Nov 14, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he Bobby means
Playing time and performance, not all star or MVP incentives
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 14, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But doesn't Johan Santana have a clause that gives him more money if he wins Silver Slugger?
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Nov 14, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have no idea
I never heard of this rule, but maybe they can no longer give it out, kinda like Mo and the no. 42, if you have it okay, but no one else.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Nov 14, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, I was only half right.
You might remember a couple of years ago, when it came out that Curt Schilling’s new contract guaranteed him a $1 million bonus if he got even one third-place vote for Cy Young. I think (but I can’t find it) that Schilling may have made a couple of jokes about bribing a writer to get his bonus. After that, the BBWAA decided to get rid of bonuses tied to postseason awards, although I don’t remember how, since that would seem to be an MLBPA issue. Anyway, apparently, the BBWAA did vote to ban these bonuses, seeing the potential for corruption. The ban wouldn’t have gone into effect until 2013, but the BBWAA exec board then voted to table it, and a couple of cursory searches on ESPN and CBSSports show no new info on the matter.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 14, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jonathan Sanchez is one of the more valuable properties in the majors
and his time before free agency has an excellent chance of being worth more than Roy Halladay’s 2010.
There is zero chance you can get him for the equivalent of Castillo and Evans.
In fact, you couldn’t give away Luis Castillo without picking up some of his salary, or swapping for another poor contract.
Who would your second choice be?
by SeanSchirmer on Nov 13, 2009 11:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
2nd choice as far as
other SP?
I like Justin Duchsherer a lot. Tom Gorzelanny as well, Jorge De la Rosa and Robinson Tejada.
Also, perhaps you could look at it from the Giants standpoint—-they’re getting Juan Pierre and 2 higher level prospects. In a depleted market, It may be worth Jonathan Sanchez. (though it’s a stretch you’re right)
by sagecoll on Nov 14, 2009 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i get the feeling JDLR is going to be one of those guys who posts a huge season
gets a great contract, and then fades into obscurity while taking the bank with him.
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 14, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
like Crawford and Figgins
Not sure if Figgins is going to want to play 2B, or how he is as a fielder there..Crawford is nice but why is everyone so anti-Francouer, he seemed to play well for us.
Get rid of maine, he never pitches a full year, keep Redding now that he made it past the injury.
Nick Johnson is great, but he is always hurt..let stay away from the MASH unit.
Matt Murton is just crazy talk, Sanchez no way
Harden, Balfour, and Zaun are all worth a look
by Rickfansince76 on Nov 14, 2009 2:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
...
1) Reason why no one likes Francoeur: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/francoeur-in-queens
2) Figgins has about 100 games at 2B over his career, and he put up a respectable UZR at the position.
3) Matt Murton not crazy: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/matt-murton-dfa
by sagecoll on Nov 14, 2009 3:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great, let's keep Redding who had a 5.08 FIP
and get’s 2 million a year. You can get a 5.08 FIP from almost anyone for much cheaper. Ie, Lance Broadway
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Nov 14, 2009 6:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maine is cheap
So he’s an excellent bet to outperform his salary.
I like Johnson, I think his injury was more of a freak accident than anything else; he’d be an excellent gamble.
by DoghouseBlues on Nov 14, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sure the lineup looks nice, except Zaun, but is that realistic? Especially the trade for sanchez? Or the signing of Harden? Or moving Perez to the pen? These are not baseball moves
by astromets on Nov 15, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What sort of moves are they, then?
I was always told that if a move is made in the game of baseball, it’s a baseball move.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 15, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what?
1) I believe you just asked if signing Rich Harden was realistic?
2) I don’t know what you mean by “baseball moves”. The goal of a baseball team is to win games and also create a profit (the 2 go hand in hand typically). The way you operate and manage your team should put you in the best opportunity to accomplish this. The moves that I suggested I believe give the Mets the best opportunity to win games using statistical analysis.
3) How is moving Perez unrealistic? He has performed so poorly as a starter that having him start games puts the team at a disadvantage. His style of pitching would change as a reliever and would perhaps give him more value as a player.
4) The 3 team trade for Sanchez was perhaps a bit ambitious, but bigger things have happened, and there are certainly other players that would suffice for a 4th starter.
by sagecoll on Nov 15, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is Tampa stupid?
I like Crawford in Citifield a lot, but I don’t think the Rays will give him up that cheap.
by steve2z on Nov 15, 2009 3:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I can't see how thats a realistic trade for the Rays
by Gina on Nov 15, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
I wouldn’t mind throwing in another bat. I doubt it would take more than that considering that we’re giving up 2 top 50 prospects, and 2 other serviceable players. Remember it only took Sean Rodriguez and some throw-ins for Scott Kazmir
by sagecoll on Nov 15, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Two top 50 prospects?
According to what lists?
And Kazmir was always injured/underperforming and really expensive and they had a lot of pitching depth, not really comparable situations.
by Gina on Nov 15, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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