AAOP: Have at it

The primary goal of the Mets organization this off-season should be to implement better long-term planning (ie, build depth, improve the farm system, obtain more payroll flexibility) – all while fielding a competitive team for 2010.

In other words: the very difficult balance of building for the future while trying to win now.

The way to best attempt this is to use an approach that is tailored to the market that currently exists.

Specifically, the 2010 free agent market is very weak for pitching (Lackey is on the wrong side of 30 and wants big money and lots of years; Pineiro, Marquis, and Wolf have been mediocre over time but are over-valued coming off of career years, etc).

Therefore, the Mets should seek to upgrade pitching through trades, where the market figures to be considerably more ripe (several teams are having recession-based problems, others like Texas have pitching surpluses, etc).

By contrast, as for hitting, there are several free agents that should interest the Mets. In fact the free agent market at certain positions (eg, 2B, C) is so deep that they can afford to trade some offensive chips for pitching and then replenish those offensive chips in the FA market.

Again, all of these trades and signing should be made with the key principles in mind: get younger, better, and more flexibile. Given the already large payroll that leaves us currently with little maneuverability, the long term health of the organization requires that we engage in no crazy risks or cumbersome contracts at this time (with one possible exception, which I’ll get to).

So, enough talking. Now to the plan.

TRADES: The Mets should prey on teams like Detroit and Texas that have signaled a willingness to move pitching and possess some real gems in their system who can make a difference in 2010.

1) In the case of Texas, Neftali Feliz is the goal. He is a stud in the making and will require a good package, but amazingly, due to Texas’s depth, is not even one of their top 5 starters (he pitched in middle relief last season and is currently one of several being looked at for both the back of the rotation or middle relief). Most importantly, Texas has signaled a desire to move pitching, as well as to land a right-handed bat. 

Here’s how we’ll do it: Mets will trade Luis Castillo to Chicago where he has been frequently linked, in return for Jake Fox, a very good right-handed bat/prospect who is completely road-blocked, old for a prospect at 28, and under-valued in Chicago. Fox hit a (no-doubt fluky) .413 with 17 HR in 160 triple-A at bats last year but has two major unrelated problems: 1) He cannot field to save his life, making him far less valuable to a NL team; and 2) His “positions,” such as they are, are 1B (blocked by Derrick Lee), 3B (blocked by Aramis Ramirez), and C (blocked by Geovany Soto).

This has resulted in Fox being no more than a 24th or 25th player on the Cubs bench. So the Cubs trade him to the Mets in return for a solid major leaguer and fill a hole for two years at 2B while they wait for prized prospect Starlin Castro to develop.

The Mets then turn around and trade right-handed bat and DH-in-waiting Jake Fox to Texas (who had great success with similar late-blooming bat Nelson Cruz) along with Bobby Parnell (like Feliz, a hard-throwing prospect projected to be in the bullpen where Texas had Feliz anyway) for Neftali Feliz.

Texas gets its right-handed bat, solves its DH void, gets a pitcher back in the deal, and assumes little if any new salary, as Parnell and Fox are league minimum.

As for the Mets, Feliz opens up camp projected to be in the rotation and makes the league minimum.

So to review: We’ve done a three-way trade where the Mets send Luis Castillo to the Cubs for Jake Fox, and then flip Fox along with Bobby Parnell to the Rangers, to nab Neftali Feliz, cutting $6 million off the payroll each of the next two years. Or to make it clearer: Castillo and Parnell for Feliz.

2) Next, Detroit has widely advertised that it needs to move players and it needs to do it now. Edwin Jackson is our goal and we’re going to need to give up some quality to get him, or we’re going to have to take on some garbage (bad contract).

I vote for the garbage because we’ll be able to afford it following the rest of this plan, and at least Detroit has some over-priced crap that actually fills some of our holes (eg, Gerald Laird at C, Carlos Guillen at 1B or OF, Jeremy Bonderman at SP).

Laird actually brings value as a very good defensive catcher who the Mets can control this year while Thole gets the seasoning he needs in AAA before taking over in 2011. He’s likely to make around $4 million in arbitration, which isn’t great, but not much more than you’d have to pay Gregg Zaun, who isn’t the second coming of Johnny Bench either.

Along with Baird, we’re going to get the 26-year old Edwin Jackson, who projects as a #2 or #3 starter and made $2.2 last year but is arbitration-eligible and likely to make $5m.

In return, the Tigers will get cheap, new starting catcher Omir Santos (a better bat than Laird, solid defender and $3.5m cheaper) and new starting RF Jeff Francoeur, an RBI machine who immediately improves their outfield defense by moving current RF Magglio to the DH spot. The Mets also agree to send $3 million along with Francoeur, covering his likely $4-5 million arbitration reward.

[Note: If this isn’t enough for Detroit, instead of taking Laird (and sending $3 million) I’d agree to take on Bonderman and his horrible contract (one year, $12m) and slot him in as our #5 starter, if we got significant cash back from Detroit. In this scenario we’d then spend $1 million on a 1-year contract with Kelly Shoppach to be our catcher until Thole comes up. But I’m going to proceed for now as though we don’t need to do that.]

So to review: Mets send Santos, Francoeur, and $3 million to Detroit for Laird and Jackson.

FREE AGENCY:

Three big signings:

1) Nick Johnson signs for 1 year at $7 million (and a club option for $9mm for 2011). I know his UZR declined last year, but he has been a good defensive guy almost all of his career, he is a professional bat, an OBP machine, and a tough guy who can probably handle NY.

He is an injury risk and fat, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take since we’ll have Murphy on the bench. Also, it’s a nice, relatively inexpensive short-term solution while we wait for Ike to develop.

2) To fill the hole left by Castillo (who I don’t think is the Mets biggest problem, by the way, but ironically, is one of their few trading chips) we sign Chone Figgins at 2B for $30 over 3 years. Signing Hudson or Lopez makes no sense in that they are not markedly better than Castillo and will require similar money to Castillo. If you’re going to get rid of Castillo, shouldn’t you at least get someone good, even if it costs you?  The speed at the top of the lineup from the first 3 hitters (all switch hitters) will make Whitey Herzog jealous.

Also, if Havens develops sooner than this, Figgins’ flexibility enables us to move him to the outfield if need be.

3)  Holliday. I hate to do this because it’s just too easy to have the team spend money on 2 high priced free agents as your “grand plan” out of the mess. But that said, I’ll give you four reasons why I’m gonna do it. One, this team has a ton of problems and creativity is only going to get you so far – so, some free agency in this case is acceptable. Two, we have the money. Three, if you can get a stud through free agency (where the cost is money alone) rather than those awful trades that require you to give up prospects AND then re-sign the guy to a huge contract (think Santana deal, Piazza deal, etc), that’s a special moment and you pounce. Four, the guy can hit, run, and field, and it will be nice to have someone locked under contract who can do all those things when most of our other contracts expire over the next two years. $17 million over 7 years.

(This is the one cumbersome contract I mentioned earlier.)

Small signings:

1) Kelly Shoppach – gets $1.5 mm to play backup catcher (and possibly compete with Laird as starter). He has 20 HR pop, good defense, and is under-valued.

If he doesn’t start, he’s a power hitting bat off the bench.

2) For the bench also: Jack-of all-trades who can actually hit and run a little Jerry Hairston Jr at $2 million for one year; and Endy for one year, $1.5 mm.

3) For the bullpen: I know this site is the Kiko Calero fan club, and I like him too, but I’ll go with Saito at 2 year/$6mm to be different (and the guy has only gotten people out), and Joe Beimel so we have a lefty besides Feliciano, at 1-year/$2mm.

4) Minor league contracts: Chad Cordero and Shawn Hill are not that far removed from good Major League seasons. 

SOME INTERNAL HOUSEKEEPING

Pagan and F-Mart vie for the RF starting job. I know many won’t agree, but I think Pagan’s play last year (over an insanely small sample that defies most of his career) earned him a look. If F-Mart somehow raises eyebrows in the spring, that’s great too. Bottom line, though, is you can’t have stars at every position, especially when trying to retain payroll and roster flexibility. Pagan played well last year and can be a serviceable #7 hitter and third outfielder. In a best-case scenario, a poor-man’s Shane Victorino.

ENOUGH TALKING – SHOW US THE LINEUP ALREADY

Starting lineup:

SS REYES (9mm)

2B FIGGINS (10mm)

CF BELTRAN (20mm)

LF HOLLIDAY 17mm)

3B WRIGHT (10mm)

1B N. JOHNSON (7mm)

RF PAGAN/F MARTINEZ (.4mm)

C LAIRD (4mm)

TOTAL LINEUP: $78 MM

Bench:

IF HAIRSTON JR (2mm)

C SHOPPACH (1.5mm)

OF CHAVEZ (1.5mm)

1B MURPHY (.4mm)

OF EVANS (.4mm)

TOTAL BENCH: $6MM

Rotation:

SP SANTANA (21mm)

SP E JACKSON (5mm)

SP N FELIZ (.4mm)

SP MAINE (3mm)

SP NIESE (.4mm)

SP PELFREY (.5mm)

SP O PEREZ (12mm)

TOTAL ROTATION:  $42.5MM

Bullpen:

RP K-ROD (12mm)

RP SAITO (3mm)

RP BEIMEL (2mm)

RP FELICIANO (2mm)

RP GREEN (1mm)

TOTAL BULLPEN: $20MM

TOTAL PAYROLL: $146.5

FINAL ANALYSIS:  (I hope...) Our starting pitching is much improved, with young talented guys we can control for years to come. Our lineup is solid, our speed is improved. We've got depth. Good bullpen. And most importantly, no prospects are blocked or given up in this scenario. We got younger and better, which were the goals. We didn't get cheaper, but we did not commit future teams to tons of money. Hopefully these deals are not seen as unrealistic; I tried to be creative and do combinations that work for both sides given their differing imperatives.

OK, let me have it….