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AAOP: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Pagan


Hey, guys. Despite my week being long and tortuous in its own right, I've been agonizing about what I'm going to write for my Offseason Plan. We've got a lot to cover, so let's just jump in, shall we?
Drstrangelove4_medium

Now that's what I call grit.


Star-divide

MLB Traderumors said in their Mets Offseason Outlook that as of now, we have about $92 mil committed to 2010. Including arb raises and smaller contracts, I'll simplify that to $100 mil. So, here's what I plan to do: create a team using $50 million dollars worth of acquisitions. And for extra fun, I'll throw in some interesting Mets Name Puzzles too.

Catcher:

We sure have fallen from the days of Carter and Piazza, huh? Leaving nostalgia aside, a few things are pretty much obvious to me. First of all, Omir Santos is not a major league starter. I think most competent fans understand that hitting a homerun off of Jonathan Papelbon is not a prerequisite for that position. Additionally, Josh Thole needs some more time in the minors. I think his hitting is good enough to get our starting job (after all, look at his competition), but his defense, admittedly, needs work. Leave him in AAA to learn how to handle a veteran pitching staff, and I have no doubts that he'll rise to play perfectly acceptable defense.

That said, we're left with a hole at the catcher spot. Unfortunately, there really isn't much we can do to fill this hole for anything other than a short term, low risk, low payment type of deal for a veteran catcher. That's why I suggest we spend our money to acquire Miguel Olivo on a one year deal for $3 mil. I know, I know...he had a .292 OBP, actually his HIGHEST total of all time. But coupled with an excellent .181 ISO and above league average slugging, he actually had a pretty good year at the plate for a catcher. Again, this is NOT the sort of offense I'd take from a starting corner outfielder (hint, hint), but I think it's more than acceptable at catcher, especially since we'll (eventually) be combining it with the OBP love child that is Josh Thole.
Backup plans: Gregg Zaun, Kelly Shoppach, Chris Snyder

Olive1_medium

Surprised he doesn't walk more, given the strike zone.

First Base: This position is difficult. Long term, I really believe Ike Davis is our first baseman. But short term, Daniel Murphy can not play first base as a starter for a contending team. The more I think about it, the more I decide that the propsed Castillo-Bradley-Overbay swap makes sense for all teams involved. Take out your handy dandy Trade Value Calculator, and you'll see that Overbay and Castillo are roughly identical in perceived value. Overbay isn't great by any means, but he's good enough to hold down the Mets' first base spot for the last year of his contract. Given the news that Mike Fontenot qualified for Super Two status, the Cubs are likely to shop him around, putting them in the market for a second baseman, and they'll be more than willing to ship off Bradley. Bradley is decidedly the best player in this deal, and moving to the AL gives him the option of DHing. Sure, there's risk, but the Blue Jays aren't going to get out of perpetual 4th place in the AL East if they don't try something crazy, right? Overbay's contract minus Castillo's contract is a net increase of $1 mil for this season (though we drop $6 mil from next year's budget).
Backup plans: Russell Branyan, Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche

Tumblr_kqpthohb4y1qzdhfto1_500_medium

Get it? Over...Bay? See, he's on the Blue Jays and...never mind.

Second Base: Luis Castillo is not in my plans for next year...so who is? There's actually a very strong group of free agent second basemen this season, headlined by Orlando Hudson. The Mets have mostly been connected to Hudson when it comes to free agent second basemen signings, but the player they should really be trying to acquire is Felipe Lopez. Lopez had a 4.6 WAR and is the best balance between the other two marquee free agent second basemen, Hudson and Placido Polanco. Lopez is a better fielder than Hudson, while hitting better than Polanco. To top it off, he seems to be underrated by the main stream media, and I'd be surprised if he cost much more than $5.5 mil per season, which I'll assume is his contract for the sake of this article.
Backup plans: Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco, Dan Uggla

George-lopez_medium

On second thought, Orlando Hudson's rate seems pretty reasonable...

Left Field:

In my opinion, the most important move we make is this one. Signing Matt Holliday is not only the easiest move we could make for a superstar, but it's one that I believe could and may actually occur. He's one of the best players in baseball, is still relatively young, plays a position for which we desperately require an upgrade, and costs no talent to acquire, as opposed to trades. This is a position where, I have to say, we need a significant upgrade almost regardless of the cost. Signing Holliday to a 6 or 7 year deal at $18 mil per may sound expensive, and it is. But it's worth it.
Backup plans: Mike Cameron, Carl Crawford, David DeJesus

Valasdocholiday_medium

And you must be Victorino. Look, darling, Shane Victorino. The grittiest ballplayer since David Eckstein, they say. What do you think, darling? Should I hate him?

 

Right Field:

This position, I've decided to fill from the inside. Surprise of all surprises, it's not Jeff Francoeur! Yes, Angel Pagan, you will be called to start 2010 in right field. Now, I realize that ideally, Pagan would not be a starter for us. However, he's coming off a successful 09 (with an actually significant amount of plate appearances to draw some predictions for next year), and is cheap. And frankly, we can't just throw money about like dust in the wind.

Arch-angel-gabriel_medium

Yeah, I'll admit this one was lazy.

Rotation:

As of now, our rotation consists of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Jon Niese, and Oliver Perez. That's...utterly atrocious, I'll be honest. Santana's sick/nasty, Pelfrey is good (hey guys, defense matters OMGZ), Niese should be good (but shouldn't be counted on as a midrotation starter right now), and Maine and Perez are total wild cards/most likely not very good. All of the possible trade targets are either bogged by bad contracts, quite expensive, or just not very good. As for the free agents, they all smack of guys who are going to get pretty big deals and just kinda pitch meh. Wolf and Piniero are coming off of career years, Lackey's injury prone, aging, and overrated, and no one else really interests me. That's why I'm proposing we sign Carl Pavano. He put up a 3.7 WAR this year, and the guy's not getting more than $6 or $7 mil on a one year deal. Wolf and Piniero, however, wouldn't cost more than $10 mil per year, and would be good alternatives to signing Lackey (blah). Overall, however I would say we should sign Pavano, and couple it with a signing of one of these guys for between $5-$10 mil per year: Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, or Ben Sheets. All are excellent when healthy, and with enough incentives laden into the contract, it may be possible to sign two of these guys. Talk about potential for high reward. For the sake of argument, I'll assume we sign Pavano and Harden for $6 and $10 mil respectively, for one year each, maybe with options. I would then hope that our rotation would be: Johan, Harden, Pelfrey, Pavano, Perez/Niese (start Perez as the fifth starter, but if he flounders, which I think he will, waste no time in bringing up Niese from AAA)

Censored_medium

[censored]

Bullpen:

K-Rod, Parnell, Feliciano, and Green should be slotted in for slots right now, as we speak. With our rotation as currently constructed, Maine can fit in as the long man who can make spot starts. To round out the bullpen, sign Kiko Calero for 2 years at 2.25 million per year, and Joe Beimel for a 1 year 2 mil deal.

Blog_cup_of_joe_small_medium

I'd like to see you find something that someone immediately associates with "Beimel" or "Kiko".

Bench:

I really don't have a problem keeping Francoeur on a purely scientific level, but considering his near arbitration, it makes more sense just to nontender the guy. Sullivan and Reed need to go, too. Murphy will play a multitude of positions off the bench, and Nick Evans will kick some serious ass as a right handed pinch hitter/platooner. As stated before...sigh...Santos will be our backup catcher. To round out this sweet awesome team, we need to bring in good defensive replacements, one for the infield and one for the outfield. Look no further than our own Endy Chavez (yaaaay!!!) and Adam Everett, both of whom have the highest UZRs among their bench quality free agent peers.

Chavez1_medium

I get the feeling his UZR is less impressive.

Poll
C'mon, tell me what you think.
1 (you know what i'm sayin')
0 votes
2 (WFAN-esque)
2 votes
3 (your anonymous sources say i suck)
1 votes
4 (finger slipped trying to hit 10)
0 votes
5 (just voicing support for David Wright through this poll)
2 votes
6 (confused between 6's and 9's)
7 votes
7 (even dykstra would admire my financial sensibilities)
8 votes
8 (scott boras shakes his fist, vowing revenge)
11 votes
9 (don't believe in perfection)
5 votes
10 (hi mom!)
3 votes

39 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments

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Comments

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Great work (and graphics) until...

you got to the starting pitching. Pavano has had one tolerable year out the last four, and adding an injury risk to Pavano leaves the rotation in worse shape than it seemed to be going into 2009.

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 14, 2009 5:04 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

there's a reason people don't use ERA here

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 14, 2009 6:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pavano was great last year.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 14, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

someone's got a loose definititon of the word "great"

"Solo homers usually come with no one on base." -Ralph Kiner

by metsguy234 on Nov 14, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

just under 4 WAR, generally considered All-Star level?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 15, 2009 12:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I gave it a 6

I don’t like Olivo at all, the Castillo-Overbay-Bradley trade is dead, and I’m not a big fan of Pavano. Otherwise it’s really good, graphics are nice, and the title is by far the best yet.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 14, 2009 5:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I can understand preferring Zaun to Olivo.

I just thought I’d try something a little different, since while I was writing it I noticed it was similar to a few other plans (namely Sam’s). Besides Zaun, though, I really think Olivo is the best option on the market. Sure, he barely gets on base, but his power is actually very good for a catcher, and it adds up to a solid hitting catcher.
I can understand being wary of Pavano. He carries a lot of trepidation just through his name. That said, he just had a very good year, but because of his history, no one’s paying a lot for him. However, there are so many moving parts in the pitching market that I’d be happy as long as we get one of Wolf, Piniero, or Pavano and one of Sheets, Harden, or Bedard.
The three way trade was still very much alive when I started writing this, and even know that it’s less likely to happen, I think it makes a world of sense for each side.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 14, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's a good plan overall

That 6 is just me not seeing anything perfect in any plan. If I can finish the two papers I have to do for my classes this weekend, I’m post mine, and I wouldn’t even give mine more than an 8 (though I expect everyone else to). The Olivo thing and the Overbay trade (by the way brilliant pic for that) are the two deal breakers because I really don’t like Olivo and the Overbay-Castillo-Bradley trade fell through so it makes this a little less realistic at this point. Really, the biggest challenge I’m having is getting rid of Castillo. Why couldn’t Omar just have signed him to a two year, 12 million dollar contract? Who else was so eager to sign him?

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Nov 14, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm a little worried about Olivo

because he can’t actually catch. Driveline Mechanics said he was second to last, with -8.8 runs. And while catcher defense isn’t perfect, it’s better than what we have (which is nothing)
But I gave it a 7. I like Pagan starting, and signing Pavano is fine by me.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Nov 14, 2009 6:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough.

I don’t really have too much of a preference between Zaun and Olivo.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 14, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Very nice plan.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Nov 14, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm your huckleberry

Tombstone is awesome. Good plan.

by James Kannengieser on Nov 14, 2009 4:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Val Kilmer is a once in a generation talent.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 14, 2009 10:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd put Robert Downey Jr in there as well

Then I’d put them both in Kiss Kiss Bang Bang and watch a fantastic movie.

by Sokojoe on Nov 14, 2009 11:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i actually havent seen that one

is it any good? its rare i find a movie i havent seen.

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 14, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Robert Downey Jr., Jude Law, and Rachel McAdams...

I can’t wait for Sherlock Holmes.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Nov 14, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hell yeah.

Kiss Kiss Bang Bang is awesome.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 14, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

How's your Korean movie knowledge?

I’ll assume you’ve seen Old Boy and the vengeance trilogy. I would also recommend seeing Save the Green Planet, Attack the Gas Station and My Sassy Girl.

by Sokojoe on Nov 14, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You've pretty much named the extent of it.

Seen Oldboy, Sympathy for Mr. Vengeance, Joint Security Area, and The Host. I suppose I should just join Netflix and catch up on some more. Right now, no one’s doing better horror than South Korea, except maybe France.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 14, 2009 11:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've heard good things about Oldboy and the rest of the series but I haven't gotten my hands on a copy yet

I think i’ll go searching now to see if I can find somewhere to get my hands on it. I don’t have netflix so i’m somewhat at the mercy of my local blockbuster and local theaters.

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 14, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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